Archman Investor

Reviewing Our January 2009 Market Predictions

At S & P 700 I added to existing positions in a big way. I am an investor who sets my sight on 10 year time horizons. For instance my portfolio is current at 2009 levels while the average American's portfolio is back at 1999 levels. I do not gamble and look for consistent returns over time. I have succeeded thus far.

That being said, back in April I made a statement that the powers that be were going to run this market straight back to 1100 on the S & P simply because they could, and with the help of taxpayer money, by God they did just that.

Though "some" data points have been better than usual the following facts remain and cannot be disputed or rationalized:

Corporate profits were a joke. Decreasing revenue, cost cutting and asset sales are NOT signs of an improving business. Playing the "beat the grossly lowered analyst numbers" are joke and only fools who have CNBC inside their heads are believing it.

Unemployment is God awful and the rationalization that losing 570K jobs last month and 20 million still out of work ( the real number) is an embarrassment.

Consumer spending is not coming back. Not for a decade or more. People had start facing up to that fact. I live here on the north shore of Long Island, New York. It is one of the areas of this country were wealth resides and the power that "really" controls this country lives.
The rich are not spending. Even in some of the most popular and tony towns on the island- there are rows and rows of streets with vacant stores that no long have customers. For rent. For rent. For rent. Consumerism is over, finished. The most people want and care about now are the I-phones and Blackberries. Thats it.

The S & P 500 should be at 750 right now which puts it right at its 25 years continuation trend line dating back to 1978. Of course the markets have gone up and the powers that be can take it to 2000 on the S & P. Hey I am not fighting it.

But by God mark my words:
When those powers that be, coupled with the true acceptance of the population that the consumer is over, done, decide that this market is going to unwind this current government financed stock market bubble, average Americans are going to get destroyed once and for all. Those 401K's that became 201K's in 2008 are going to become 101K's when this is all said and done.

I will of course sell many positions to mom and pop Americans at the highs like you will, (it is the nature of the beast, someone wins and someone loses,) but it is going to be a shame to watch the destruction unfold while Wall Street laughs all the way to the bank.

Google: How One Wedding Video Shows YouTube's Potential

It was all in good fun I guess.
It's nice to see that during hard times in the mid-northern state of MN things are not so bad.

Then again the men in the video are probably all Policemen, Firemen, or union workers, and the women are probably all teachers.
All living off the taxpayers. Recession for these people?
Nah.
Life is good so might as well celebrate.

compdivplan.com

Is Jim Cramer Right? Is Apple Really a Market Barometer?

Apple, while a good company that makes fun products, is not the yardstick we should be using to measure the market. It is more the yardstick that measures some level of nonsense consumer spending.

The average american: An over indebted soul, who confused home equity extraction and credit card debt with real liquid net worth.
The USA: a country where we measure our success on how many I-pods we own, how many tattoos, and piercings we get, how much jail time we rack up as a badge of honor, and how many different reality shows we can try out for, instead of doing a hard days work.

We have evolved into a pathetic "reactive" nation of souls who need to be told what to think and what to believe, instead of a the "proactive" nation of the past, that would never stand for most of the stupidity that we now call "normal" in this country.