Archman Investor

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

Tack:

Don't think I do not agree with you. I do.
Even with most of my wealth in ROTH IRA's.
Everything is so corrupt in this country now.
Geithner cheats on his taxes, gets a pass. and is made Treasury Secretary.
Average Americans make the same "mistakes" and they are told to pay, put in jails, kids out on the street.
Time is running out for this country. I just think 90% of Ameircans do not care anymore or are to scared to care.

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

At S & P 700 I added to existing positions in a big way. I am an investor who sets my sight on 10 year time horizons. For instance my portfolio is current at 2009 levels while the average American's portfolio is back at 1999 levels. I do not gamble and look for consistent returns over time. I have succeeded thus far.

That being said, back in April I made a statement that the powers that be were going to run this market straight back to 1100 on the S & P simply because they could, and with the help of taxpayer money, by God they did just that.

Though "some" data points have been better than usual the following facts remain and cannot be disputed or rationalized:

Corporate profits were a joke. Decreasing revenue, cost cutting and asset sales are NOT signs of an improving business. Playing the "beat the grossly lowered analyst numbers" are joke and only fools who have CNBC inside their heads are believing it.

Unemployment is God awful and the rationalization that losing 570K jobs last month and 20 million still out of work ( the real number) is an embarrassment.

Consumer spending is not coming back. Not for a decade or more. People had start facing up to that fact. I live here on the north shore of Long Island, New York. It is one of the areas of this country were wealth resides and the power that "really" controls this country lives.
The rich are not spending. Even in some of the most popular and tony towns on the island- there are rows and rows of streets with vacant stores that no long have customers. For rent. For rent. For rent. Consumerism is over, finished. The most people want and care about now are the I-phones and Blackberries. Thats it.

The S & P 500 should be at 750 right now which puts it right at its 25 years continuation trend line dating back to 1978. Of course the markets have gone up and the powers that be can take it to 2000 on the S & P. Hey I am not fighting it.

But by God mark my words:
When those powers that be, coupled with the true acceptance of the population that the consumer is over, done, decide that this market is going to unwind this current government financed stock market bubble, average Americans are going to get destroyed once and for all. Those 401K's that became 201K's in 2008 are going to become 101K's when this is all said and done.

I will of course sell many positions to mom and pop Americans at the highs like you will, (it is the nature of the beast, someone wins and someone loses,) but it is going to be a shame to watch the destruction unfold while Wall Street laughs all the way to the bank.

The Case for Shorting Bank of America

Tough to short this stock, or any stock for that matter that are backstopped by the government. That is really the bottom line.

Since I don't like to rationalize things I will just say it like it is:
BAC, WFC, COF, even GS were bankrupted by the collapse. The government stepped in and saved them. Not only saved them, but have assured everyone that no matter what, they cannot and will no go under.
Anyone who thinks otherwise better wake up or grow up. The banks are not lending, they are hoarding money, and their real businesses are not growing. If it weren't for taxpayer backstopped TARP money used for trading these banks would be gone.

I am not short any of these stocks, nor am I long. I cannot invest in companies that I know are actually controlled and manipulated by others in that way. There are way to many other investments out there.

Short of a complete collapse or loss of faith in our treasury, FED, and our country, sure these stocks might fall and there might be a shorting opportunity somewhere, but I wouldn't own them.

John Paulson: Long Financials

The entire release of the "Paulson" holdings, both in print and most notably on CNBC, borders on the absurd if not asinine.

What was released is based on what he had bought. Paulson has "already" made money in those investments.

What is idiotic is how the media has been using this as "another marketing tool" to convince mom and pop americans that they have to be in the market.

For God's sake what it wrong with average Americans? Are they really falling for this total bulls*it? Have they sunken that low in their intelligence that they not only need CNBC to tell them what they want to hear but now they are simply going to follow the moves of someone like Paulson who bought the stocks 50% ago?

I apologize for my comments but I guess that explains why the average American's net worth is still back at 1999 levels.

Until average American investors take it upon themselves to either start thinking for themselves or at the very least listen to people like myself who tell them what they "need" to hear not what Wall Street "wants" them to hear, they are going to continue to lose money in their investments.

compdivplan.com

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall

After reading the article I almost wanted to run outside, spend a few days digging a shelter, pour the concrete, stock it, and hide.

Heck I do not know what is going to happen, but if one has an investing plan and sticks to it, one can make money in the market (and no I do not mean a plan that includes anything that the liars on CNBC, or the mutual funds, et al, have to say).

I have always believed that to be to bearish or to bullish is very dangerous. Leaning to far to one side will hurt you, a lot.

I must apologize for the following repetitive statements: When the S & P finally cracks, when the run up fueled by IB's using tax payer money is over, the average American MUST be ready to act.
The average American MUST not listen to CNBC or the financial media. The MUST not let them take a parking space in their heads for they are ALWAYS dead wrong and have no accountability for the things they say.

Dear average mom and pop American:
You buy stocks when nobody wants them. When the fear is high and you are being told to get out of stocks by the very people who kept telling you to buy them the entire way down!! That is when you take your shopping list to the store and buy companies that you have been wanting to buy for years.

I have no idea where this market goes. All i know is that I have a long term plan in place, and there are companies who's shares I would like to buy. I will buy them when the S & P falls back to its 25 year continuation trend line of about 750. Just like I did back in the spring, when CNBC finally capitulated and said the world was coming to an end.
I will not buy them while people on CNBC are declaring the recession over and while they collect their million dollar pay checks, regardless if they are 100% dead wrong or not.

Schadenfreude: Finally, Countrywide's CEO Getting What He Deserves

My favorite outright boldfaced lie by Angelo was when he stated:
"This entire episode in being driven by form not substance".

Wow, I mean how funny is that when in fact, it was the substance that drove everything into the ground in the end.

I watched the video, more out of curiosity, and to see almost all of the things Angelo say go wrong in the end was outright hilarious.
This guy was truly dead wrong on every single issue he addressed.

Either this guy was truly an idiot and was so busy counting his money that he forgot he had a business to run, OR he is truly a criminal who outright lied to many people, for quite along time and should be in jail this second.

Monday's Closing Update: Housing, Financials Rally Broader Market

Cetin:

Just to be clear, I am just presenting information for informations sake. I do not mind the market going up. No, not at all.

You are right. The gains are there (though not "locked in") until the sellers drop the prices below where people bought them. Unfortunately for the average mom and pop investor, and as per a very good WSJ article this morning, most people let gains turn into losses and sell out AFTER they have lost a lot of money or sell out right at the bottom.

Unless someone bought near the bottom, or like me, lost only about 15% last year and does not "need" stocks to shoot back to DOW 14K tomorrow, I do not need to chase any rally, and I can afford to look for more than just one or two bits of positively spun news before I commit more money to this market.

Monday's Closing Update: Housing, Financials Rally Broader Market

Psst.
Just to be clear here.

S & P 500 volume was barely half the daily average today.
Considering last week was a minus 5% loss for the index, if todays bounce was real, volume should have been much closer to average or above average to show that people really "wanted" stocks.

Sorry. Just telling you what you need to hear, not what Wall Street and the financial media wants you to hear.

Bank Stress Tests: How Credible Are They?

The WSJ article this morning spelled it out:

The banks ended up making their own rules, making their own results, and in the end, the Fed went along with it.

The entire event was perfectly orchestrated.

Things take time to occur. Watch for Stress Test Part II coming soon to a theatre near you.

5 Reasons Bank Shareholders Will Take a Hit

It is a traders market.
Simple as that.
Hedge funds have driven this rally, they will end it when they want to make money on the other side.
I have a long term buy list with entry points all set for that day, when the stocks I want, head back to those prices.

BTW: 25 year continuation trend line on the S & P 500 is 750 as of today.

As of today's close the S & P is absurdly overvalued. Every single time for the past 40 years the S & P has reverted to its continuation trend line at some point. As I spoke about in another post, months ago, I feared that this market was going to be driven straight back up to 1000 on the S & P by all the evil forces (hedge funds, FED, Treasury, and all it's partner trading desks) and sadly I appear to be right.

A Stress Test Shocker: BofA Needs $35 Billion

I do not see any surprise in the announcement. Since this recession/ credit crisis / sub prime crisis began, the public has been misled and outright lied to on every level.

Also, what did we all expect? Leading up to today, we had years of corruption both on Wall Street and in Washington, where those groups made insane amounts of money (both legally and illegally), where money (credit) flowed like a mighty river creating a housing/ lending bubble, et al.

We now have the consequence of all this: a debt crisis.

Of course Wall Street, Washington, and the paid for media is still trying to convince you we have a lending crisis (or lack there of) right now, but that is nothing more than a bold faced lie to those like me who learned long ago to think for themselves.

The Financial Storm of the Century

Tom Brown wrote not less than 6 articles in the past month yelling the bottom was in.

He was dead wrong. He lost people a ton.

He should be in jail.

Zero Accountability.

Why I'm Committed to the UltraShort Financials ETF

<<The page has turned. The WFC news this morning is a game changer.>>

WFC simply said they weren't going to "suck as much" as the other banks this quarter. They said firmly that they now have 7 Billion set aside for bad crap thats coming down the pike.

I don't care that they raised the dividend either. Thats called playing Wall Street and Main Street for a fool.

Oh we are going to get a financial rally. No question. For those that are newly long or so pathetically underwater from listening to the cheerleading from the media, atleast you can make a few $$

Investors Losing All Their Blue Chips

LMC looks like a disaster as far as the technicals go.

I guess an argument could be made for a speculative buy.

They seem to rake in a lot of cash, yet their net is nothing to write home about. Mining companies tend to be that way.

It's definitely a spec play IMO.
Mad Money, like they say on TV. LOL

Investors Losing All Their Blue Chips

The article best illustrates a major problem with investing.

What is a blue chip? Some made up statement, concocted on Wall Street, as a way to convince people buying these stocks means you own the "best" and they are "stable" and do not go down as much as other "speculative" stocks do during hard times???

HA HA. The joke is on the average investor.

In my 15 years of investing I have never owned a "blue chip" stock.

Here is another of my favorite Wall Street terms: "Most widely held".

Another crock of shit term, that means nothing. It is another talking point Wall Street and the media use to reflect the overall market.

They are all useless. The goal should be to find stocks, of any size, that are making alot of revenue, have good net earnings, and have the ability to exponentially expand their market cap over long periods of time, with as few outstanding shares as possible.