Archman Investor

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

Tack:

Don't think I do not agree with you. I do.
Even with most of my wealth in ROTH IRA's.
Everything is so corrupt in this country now.
Geithner cheats on his taxes, gets a pass. and is made Treasury Secretary.
Average Americans make the same "mistakes" and they are told to pay, put in jails, kids out on the street.
Time is running out for this country. I just think 90% of Ameircans do not care anymore or are to scared to care.

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

At S & P 700 I added to existing positions in a big way. I am an investor who sets my sight on 10 year time horizons. For instance my portfolio is current at 2009 levels while the average American's portfolio is back at 1999 levels. I do not gamble and look for consistent returns over time. I have succeeded thus far.

That being said, back in April I made a statement that the powers that be were going to run this market straight back to 1100 on the S & P simply because they could, and with the help of taxpayer money, by God they did just that.

Though "some" data points have been better than usual the following facts remain and cannot be disputed or rationalized:

Corporate profits were a joke. Decreasing revenue, cost cutting and asset sales are NOT signs of an improving business. Playing the "beat the grossly lowered analyst numbers" are joke and only fools who have CNBC inside their heads are believing it.

Unemployment is God awful and the rationalization that losing 570K jobs last month and 20 million still out of work ( the real number) is an embarrassment.

Consumer spending is not coming back. Not for a decade or more. People had start facing up to that fact. I live here on the north shore of Long Island, New York. It is one of the areas of this country were wealth resides and the power that "really" controls this country lives.
The rich are not spending. Even in some of the most popular and tony towns on the island- there are rows and rows of streets with vacant stores that no long have customers. For rent. For rent. For rent. Consumerism is over, finished. The most people want and care about now are the I-phones and Blackberries. Thats it.

The S & P 500 should be at 750 right now which puts it right at its 25 years continuation trend line dating back to 1978. Of course the markets have gone up and the powers that be can take it to 2000 on the S & P. Hey I am not fighting it.

But by God mark my words:
When those powers that be, coupled with the true acceptance of the population that the consumer is over, done, decide that this market is going to unwind this current government financed stock market bubble, average Americans are going to get destroyed once and for all. Those 401K's that became 201K's in 2008 are going to become 101K's when this is all said and done.

I will of course sell many positions to mom and pop Americans at the highs like you will, (it is the nature of the beast, someone wins and someone loses,) but it is going to be a shame to watch the destruction unfold while Wall Street laughs all the way to the bank.

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall

After reading the article I almost wanted to run outside, spend a few days digging a shelter, pour the concrete, stock it, and hide.

Heck I do not know what is going to happen, but if one has an investing plan and sticks to it, one can make money in the market (and no I do not mean a plan that includes anything that the liars on CNBC, or the mutual funds, et al, have to say).

I have always believed that to be to bearish or to bullish is very dangerous. Leaning to far to one side will hurt you, a lot.

I must apologize for the following repetitive statements: When the S & P finally cracks, when the run up fueled by IB's using tax payer money is over, the average American MUST be ready to act.
The average American MUST not listen to CNBC or the financial media. The MUST not let them take a parking space in their heads for they are ALWAYS dead wrong and have no accountability for the things they say.

Dear average mom and pop American:
You buy stocks when nobody wants them. When the fear is high and you are being told to get out of stocks by the very people who kept telling you to buy them the entire way down!! That is when you take your shopping list to the store and buy companies that you have been wanting to buy for years.

I have no idea where this market goes. All i know is that I have a long term plan in place, and there are companies who's shares I would like to buy. I will buy them when the S & P falls back to its 25 year continuation trend line of about 750. Just like I did back in the spring, when CNBC finally capitulated and said the world was coming to an end.
I will not buy them while people on CNBC are declaring the recession over and while they collect their million dollar pay checks, regardless if they are 100% dead wrong or not.

Citi Is a Dog: Go Long at Your Own Risk

There are those who are experienced traders (not me) who will probably make a career out of trading this stock. Then there are those who will conned into buying the stock by the financial media (not me)
And finally there are those who will buy this stock simply because they are such lousy investors in the first place. Stocks to them are a lottery ticket out of Wal-Mart employment, or they desperately need stocks to go up in order to re-coup the 80% losses they suffered by buying whatever stocks their bald headed idol on TV told them to buy.

There are just so many other investment opportunities out there I do not know why anyone would bother with C

S&P Still Considers This Market Cheap

<<What the market does know is that the chance of a Depression was averted with the suspension of the banking mark-to-market rules. That has fueled the post March 9th rally.>>

No.
What has fueled the rally since March 9th has been hedge funds and IB trading desks using TARP money to make the market go higher.
Average Americans (i am not talking about people who trade stocks for a living) did not participate in this bear market rally for we know from history that they remained shell shocked from the losses sustained over the past 12 months.
Unlike 25 years ago when hedge funds were far and few between, hedge funds are now responsible for the majority of stock price / index movements. The simple fact of the matter is, hedge funds, the trading desks decided enough is enough, it was time to make some money on the long side. And boy they made it.
Unfortunately average americans did not participate in the rally, and of course, as if right on point, analysts began upgrading the most beaten down sectors AFTER they shot up more than 100% from their lows.

This is typical Wall Street behavior. Telling investors what they want to hear, rather than what they need to hear.

It is going to take more than a handful or positively spun news points to convince folks that everything is looking better.

Bank Stress Tests: How Credible Are They?

The WSJ article this morning spelled it out:

The banks ended up making their own rules, making their own results, and in the end, the Fed went along with it.

The entire event was perfectly orchestrated.

Things take time to occur. Watch for Stress Test Part II coming soon to a theatre near you.

5 Reasons Bank Shareholders Will Take a Hit

It is a traders market.
Simple as that.
Hedge funds have driven this rally, they will end it when they want to make money on the other side.
I have a long term buy list with entry points all set for that day, when the stocks I want, head back to those prices.

BTW: 25 year continuation trend line on the S & P 500 is 750 as of today.

As of today's close the S & P is absurdly overvalued. Every single time for the past 40 years the S & P has reverted to its continuation trend line at some point. As I spoke about in another post, months ago, I feared that this market was going to be driven straight back up to 1000 on the S & P by all the evil forces (hedge funds, FED, Treasury, and all it's partner trading desks) and sadly I appear to be right.

A Stress Test Shocker: BofA Needs $35 Billion

I do not see any surprise in the announcement. Since this recession/ credit crisis / sub prime crisis began, the public has been misled and outright lied to on every level.

Also, what did we all expect? Leading up to today, we had years of corruption both on Wall Street and in Washington, where those groups made insane amounts of money (both legally and illegally), where money (credit) flowed like a mighty river creating a housing/ lending bubble, et al.

We now have the consequence of all this: a debt crisis.

Of course Wall Street, Washington, and the paid for media is still trying to convince you we have a lending crisis (or lack there of) right now, but that is nothing more than a bold faced lie to those like me who learned long ago to think for themselves.

Mark to Market: Time of Death 8:45AM, April 2, 2009

<<I tell WFC: the trading in such securities has dried up for a reason! the reason being that no moron wants to buy those stupid assets, therefore you have to mark them at fire sale prices....!!!!!>>

Amen.
But, we are in a market completely controlled by hedge funds now.
The stock market goes up because hedge funds "want" it to go up.
When they are done feasting, they simply decide to take it lower.

Nothing is done for the benefit of the average american. It is all done to benefit the elitists, period.

Invest accordingly.

Insolvent Banks: Why a Debt-for-Equity Swap Won't Work

I gotta tell ya, I am not invested in any financial, banks, insurance companies, etc, but I am getting the really bad feeling that every single one of these companies is truly insolvent.

One has to wonder at this point, instead of the never ending slow bleed we are seeing, the entire system has be nationalized ASAP?

I am not for socialism, but one has to wonder.

Oh What a Tangled Web We Weave in Market Headlines

I prefer "hope".

Based on the S & P 500 chart you provided- it is clear you can see the bull market that started in 1982 on the left hand side of the chart. It followed a more "normal" pattern of a bull market with the averages returning about 10% a year- pre Fed/govt manipulation of the markets.

Then in 1995 you can see where the first bubble began to form.
It collapsed in 2000, then in 2003 the credit bubble took over and we inflated again until 2007.

Though I have no idea where things will "end up", one thing that is promising: If you look at the continuing trend from 1982, the S & P only has to fall until 700 to truly wipe out all the stock market excesses and bring us back into the with the ultra long term trendline.

Now the bad news, as you stated, anything can happen and we could break that trend line and fall to who knows where.

I am "hoping" that all in all we fall to that continuation trendline and simply get back on track per the 1982 line.

We will see.

Earnings Season: Fundamentally Flawed

<<Earnings season is a volatile time. Crap earnings are sensationalized as beats just because the analysts pump them up 90 days ago and then wipe them out before they are announced. And the media buys into it>>

Actually the media is in collusion with the analysts and Wall Street in general. Every single one of those banks that reported all "increased" dramatically and even stated that losses on all fronts "are" getting worse and will continue to get worse. This rally is typical Wall Street non sense. The big boys pump the market on the back of the shorts, and the media does its part by trying to convince mom and pop americans the bottom is in. Watch BAC on Monday. They too will say everything is OK, yet the smart money knows that it will be a few quarters before they start owning up to all the Countrywide problems they bought.

Investors Losing All Their Blue Chips

LMC looks like a disaster as far as the technicals go.

I guess an argument could be made for a speculative buy.

They seem to rake in a lot of cash, yet their net is nothing to write home about. Mining companies tend to be that way.

It's definitely a spec play IMO.
Mad Money, like they say on TV. LOL

Investors Losing All Their Blue Chips

The article best illustrates a major problem with investing.

What is a blue chip? Some made up statement, concocted on Wall Street, as a way to convince people buying these stocks means you own the "best" and they are "stable" and do not go down as much as other "speculative" stocks do during hard times???

HA HA. The joke is on the average investor.

In my 15 years of investing I have never owned a "blue chip" stock.

Here is another of my favorite Wall Street terms: "Most widely held".

Another crock of shit term, that means nothing. It is another talking point Wall Street and the media use to reflect the overall market.

They are all useless. The goal should be to find stocks, of any size, that are making alot of revenue, have good net earnings, and have the ability to exponentially expand their market cap over long periods of time, with as few outstanding shares as possible.

How Deceitful Are the Big Banks?

How Deceitful Are the Big Banks???

They are as deceitful as our own Treasury Secretary is, Mr. Hank (bold faced liar) Paulson.

They are as deceitful as our Fed.

They are as deceitful as our own gov't who blatantly put out phony gov't reports. I guess the good news on that front, is that many, many people know those reports are totally bogus and made up.
The bad news is the gov't is so corrupt now and feel they are above reproach, they will continue to outright lie to it's own people.