Archman Investor

Lessons from a Market 'En Fuego'

As always I must comment on the articles (yes it is a sickness I have and admit to).

First point: I wish those who are gamblers, losers, those who "need" stocks to go up to justify their awful investing skills, or those who over time have not created any real wealth for themselves would stop telling people like myself or others who bought at S & P 700, that we "missed the rally", just because we see this market for what it is and know the truth about what is behind the move.

I am proud to say, and stand by my statements, that this market is nothing more than a FED/TARP/ investment bank rally fueled by massive liquidity, computer trading and the need for those in charge to make themselves and their buddies very wealthy.
Hey and that is all fine by me. Like I said, I bought when no one wanted stocks and when CNBC finally got negative.

For someone like myself and others who are firmly in the black this year and even better, who's portfolios are where they should be @ 2009 levels, not 1998 levels like the majority of Americans, we are in the driver's seat.

Lets face it, most people like a bull market and want the market to go up. Unfortunately the average American has no business being the stock market. They have no idea how to invest. Their investment thesis is based on greed, fear, hope, and worst of all with the advent of 24/7 media, listening to so called professionals who have no interest, none whatsoever, to help them actually create wealth over time.
Instead it is all about asset gathering. When you tell this to most ignorant American gamblers, they curse you, for they know nothing other than "stocks just have to go up". Again I just have to laugh at a few of the SA commentators as their gambling mentality shows thru in their comments. You can tell these people lost a TON last year and probably have the same if any net worth they had a decade ago. So in essence they need stocks to keep rising and curse those who would dare question a rising market like one.

A market where 20% real unemployment, a future decade of de-leveraging, mountains of debt in government, corporate, and personal threaten the very fabric of our economy etc. Where for the past 9 months, companies have been losing 15% in revenue a quarter, laying off thousands, cutting costs, yet that is the only way they are beating their analyst lowered numbers. Those are the facts and they are indisputable.

I have always believed (being an investor not a trader, of whom I admit I am the worlds worst trader) that success i measured over a period of 10 years as "long term". Since 2000, we have now seen the real skills of average Americans when it comes to investing and they are awful. We have seen the real skills of the so called professionals like Bill Miller and even Cramer, and they are awful. Why? Because during bull markets "everyone" looks like a genus and they themselves are convinced they are so.

I have always believed, the truly good and great investors are able to manage money thru both bull, bear and sideways trending markets over a time period of a decade, minimum. It should be apparent to most people that the majority of professionals, even with their MBA's, TV appearances, and some their own TV shows, are not better at investing than the average American (like me) who over 15 years has learned about investing, how the market really works, and how to create consistent, long term wealth.

This market is truly dangerous right now. Manipulated or not, people need to wake up to the real facts about the market, the investment banks, and how all these companies are all in collusion together with the financial media to get inside your head and keep telling you what you WANT to hear, not what you NEED to hear.

compdivplan.com

Gone Nowhere in 8 Years

A better chart to review would be the S & P 500, which as of today is where it was back in 1998.

Average Americans have no idea just how corrupt and manipulated the stock market is now.
Where the FED, its partner banks, money center banks only have one goal: Keep the market in a never ending series of market bubbles and market crashes.
We have had 2 since 1999 and we are working on number 3 right now.
S & P should be at 750 right now to be at its 30 year long term uptrend line. That is a fact.
For those that know and understand this, you will always make money buying low and selling high.
For those average Americans and Cramericans out there who are waiting anxiously for Cramer's soon to be releases new book titled:
"Getting back to even", you continue to deserve to lose all your money, year in and year out, because you put your trust in people who in turn dont give a damn about you.

compdivplan.com

Reviewing Our January 2009 Market Predictions

At S & P 700 I added to existing positions in a big way. I am an investor who sets my sight on 10 year time horizons. For instance my portfolio is current at 2009 levels while the average American's portfolio is back at 1999 levels. I do not gamble and look for consistent returns over time. I have succeeded thus far.

That being said, back in April I made a statement that the powers that be were going to run this market straight back to 1100 on the S & P simply because they could, and with the help of taxpayer money, by God they did just that.

Though "some" data points have been better than usual the following facts remain and cannot be disputed or rationalized:

Corporate profits were a joke. Decreasing revenue, cost cutting and asset sales are NOT signs of an improving business. Playing the "beat the grossly lowered analyst numbers" are joke and only fools who have CNBC inside their heads are believing it.

Unemployment is God awful and the rationalization that losing 570K jobs last month and 20 million still out of work ( the real number) is an embarrassment.

Consumer spending is not coming back. Not for a decade or more. People had start facing up to that fact. I live here on the north shore of Long Island, New York. It is one of the areas of this country were wealth resides and the power that "really" controls this country lives.
The rich are not spending. Even in some of the most popular and tony towns on the island- there are rows and rows of streets with vacant stores that no long have customers. For rent. For rent. For rent. Consumerism is over, finished. The most people want and care about now are the I-phones and Blackberries. Thats it.

The S & P 500 should be at 750 right now which puts it right at its 25 years continuation trend line dating back to 1978. Of course the markets have gone up and the powers that be can take it to 2000 on the S & P. Hey I am not fighting it.

But by God mark my words:
When those powers that be, coupled with the true acceptance of the population that the consumer is over, done, decide that this market is going to unwind this current government financed stock market bubble, average Americans are going to get destroyed once and for all. Those 401K's that became 201K's in 2008 are going to become 101K's when this is all said and done.

I will of course sell many positions to mom and pop Americans at the highs like you will, (it is the nature of the beast, someone wins and someone loses,) but it is going to be a shame to watch the destruction unfold while Wall Street laughs all the way to the bank.