Archman Investor

Global Markets in Review: Share Prices Too Far Ahead of Economic Reality

<<Ah the hubris of the Archman....750 remember the prediction..>>
<<Archman,,,you seem to believe in mean reversion when it only
meets your preordained agenda...>>

bbro:
i give no time frame for the 750. Could be next week or next year. The FED is pumping the system and market, mortgaging away the next 3 generations worth of wealth. You cannot fight that. However, that is the "only" thing holding the market up and this so called "recovery".
I don't know what is right or wrong. All i know is that my portfolio is at 2009 levels while the average American's portfolio is at 1999 levels or completely wiped out.
Some people know how to invest, others don't.
I just try and get people to think and stop falling for the lies of Wall Street and the financial media.

Global Markets in Review: Share Prices Too Far Ahead of Economic Reality

Blah Blah Blah.
Anyone who is not a 9 to 5 lifer knows that "profits" are not the real story to a successful business. EPS, and profits are nothing more than manipulated numbers that can be massaged as necessary to "make things work" Just as GE. They have been doing it for decades.
Revenue, and the growth of revenue, is the main number that should be looked at as a first step in accessing a business. If you are making more money, your revenue is rising. You are making less, revenue is falling. Simple as that. 85% of Wall Street earnings showed flat or declining revenues these past quarters.
To put it more simply: That sucks and there is no way to rationalize it.
I could care less about some NIPA corporate profits after tax numbers. The tax code "is" set up for businesses to essentially write down the value of everything so they can show a profit and keep more money legally. That is why 9 to 5 lifers never get ahead. They get their fully taxed paycheck and then have to pay for all their regular expenses with after tax monies, leaving them nothing.

S&P will revert to its 25 year continuation uptrend of 750. Always has reverted to that trend line and always will in the future. The question is which average American suckers will be caught holding the bag by buying into the market "after" it has run up 70% from the lows.


On Nov 22 11:16 AM bbro wrote:

> You miss one on the most important numbers...on Tuesday we
> get NIPA corporate profits after tax numbers....the average ratio
> over the last
> 25 years ( Taking out the extreme over valuation of 1997-2001) is
> 1.20.
> If we get a corporate profits after tax number of 1050. The ratio
> will be
> 1.04.......fair value for the S&amp;P 500 would be 1260.....In fact
> buying when Ratio is below 1.00 has always yielded good profits....

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

One thing I notice on a lot of the charts:
The MACD is topping out and in some cases "almost" looks like they want to rollover. I know they can trend sideways for awhile but I think it merits watching.
Though I use both fundamental and technical analysis when it comes to stocks in my portfolio, the technical analysis, is vital for perhaps getting ahead of a stock's major move. You have to feel for the average person on the street who has no idea, none, how their stocks move as they sit there wondering how all the gains they made suddenly vanish.

compdivplan.com

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Bull run:
Here is my scenario of dollar:
If most economies (ex USA) recover: Dollar down
If all economies recover: Dollar down
If USA only recovers(not likely): Dollar up slightly
If all economies stay in the toilet: Dollar up

I guess you have to be watching every possible scenario.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I am just sticking to the same formula that has made money for the past decade and a half. Never to bullish, never to bearish, and keep enough on the sidelines to take advantage of opportunities.

compdivplan.com

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

It is just another line in the ongoing plot line of Wall Street.
The real players always know the outcome, while mom and pop americans are left wondering why they couldnt figure out the real story. The playing field has never been this UN-level before in the history of the stock market.

compdivplan.com

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

<<As I have maintained for some time, what most bothers me about CNBC in USA (Europe and Asia CNBC have useful interviews often) is not only their chronic cheerleading, but their being loudest when we should be most cautious. They only time they're not bullish, is when you should be (e.g., near bottoms in 2002 and 2009).>>

As I have said many times:
CNBC will tell you what you want to hear, help you protect your money............AFTER the market falls 40% and after they yell buy buy buy all the way down from DOW 14K 13K 12K 11K 10K 9K 8K, etc.

It's called zero accountability, and no integrity.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Can I ask a question?

What sort of low life, white trash scum, would give negative comments (thumbs down) to those like myself and others, who are wishing Dave and his wife only the very best during times of distress?

Screw you, you pathetic people. Go back in your holes where you belong. If it were not for the internet, you would live your useless lives out and be gone from this earth, and no one would ever care anyway.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Dave:
I typically read your end of day update directly at EFT Digest around 7:00 PM EST, and yesterday was no exception.
After reading the first paragraphs last night, I had to take a step back, before reading your charts, and offer you and your wife as many silent prayers as I could for her speedy recovery. I hope you both keep your spirits up, and know that there are many, many, people out there wishing the best for you and your wife.
Thank you again for all you do, and I wish you both the best.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Here is a repost of a comment I left on another thread. The comment I feel applies to many articles we see on the internet.

As always Dave, great job analyzing the current market. I never miss an EFT Digest recap.

I wrote elsewhere:

At DOW 14,000 the pros say:
"Keep on buying"
"Buy for the long term"
"Buy and hold"
"Everything is great"
"Goldilocks economy"
"Never been stronger"

At DOW 6500 the pros say:
"Buy and hold is dead"
"Give your money to the pros and let them trade the market for that is the only way to make money now"
"Time to take money off the table"
"It is the end of the world"
"Cut your stock exposure by 50%"

However, at DOW 6500, the pros, the institutions, the hedge funds are buying hand over fist while mom and pop are shell shocked and on the side lines.

Now, 35% to the upside later, mom and pop are getting back in, the pros are putting their "super strong buys" on everything, and apparently, everything is right with the world again.

No wonder the average American's portfolio, as of today, is back where it was in 1999.

Goldman ups the coal sector to super strong buy AFTER it has a 200% move up.

Yeah. Ok.

Wall street tells you what you want to hear, I tell you what you need to hear.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Dave:
As always, very insightful, comical, and honest......refreshing.
I never miss one of your recaps, ever.
I hope the health crisis is resolved for the better.

As a note, I always ask myself,
"Self, what is it going to take to get these lying pump monkeys, like Art Hogan, who have been 100% dead wrong, called no less than 8 market bottoms down from DOW 14K, of the air for good"??

I guess there are just way to many people out there who truly believe (or are led to believe) that people like Hogan are smarter than them. When in fact, Hogan is just an over paid salesman who probably does not have to work another day in his life if he chooses not to.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I wish to express my condolences for the loss of your friend Greg Newton. His insight, and wit will be missed.

I agree with the above poster.

We have a market that has been going up because hedge funds, unlike 25 years ago, now truly run the market. They want to make money, so the market runs.

I notice most of the time, when people leave negative comments about my statement above, it is because these people are the ones who are down 75% in their portfolio and "need" stocks to go up to validate their awful investing abilities. They are looking for any rationalization and excuse as to why stocks have to advance.

This rally has been 50% short covering, 40% hedge funds moving it up, 9% PPT, and 1% mom and pop, average americans.

From the hundreds of posts I read a day, all over the internet, mom and pop americans are still on the sidelines, scared and not trusting anyone. The shame of it is, they eventually get in "after" the market goes up 30% and after then finally let CNBC inside their heads convincing them everything is ok now.

The 25 year continuation trend line on the S & P 500, puts the index at 750 as of today. Anything within 50 points either direction could be considered safe to invest. Once you move away from that level, you are either buying at an even better time, or you are overpaying. They way things are going, you would think the DOW is going to be back at 14K by years end...LOL.

I continue to be 90% long in my portfolio (1/2 canadian stock, 1/2 US stocks). Just expressing this to make clear to those who might think I am to negative or short the market.

I finally have been able to pick up shares in a few dirt cheap utility stocks, but for the most part remain invested in stocks that most americans are not told to buy by the forces that want them only in the likes of GE/MSFT/BAC, etc.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

<<Indeed. The rest of the world has woken up to the fact that America is bankrupt in every sense of the word. Can't really blame them for that.>>

Agreed.

The rest of the world is starting to understand that letting 5% of the worlds total population (The USA) account for most of world consumption and progress is a deadly mistake that cannot, and will not be repeated. Though it is going to take time (I mean years not months) as that time going on, the billions of people in other countries are going to start making, consuming, and developing their OWN economies, their OWN consumption, and OWN finance, and generating their OWN self sustaining economies going forward.

I have no idea how this plays out, and yes for now, China and the US are very much linked to closely. However as the years go on, you are going to see China "quietly" de-coupling from the reliance on the U.S.

Based on the rhetoric we have seen and heard from other countries around the world, the U.S. is no longer in good standing in the eyes of other nations. Remember, though some nations such as the U.K. Ireland, Iceland, etc, are basket cases in their own right, the majority of the world is suffering for one reason and one reason alone: The garbage that was sold to them by U.S. investment banks, our govt, and our other banks.

When this is said and done the rest of the world is going to remember that, no question about it.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

As always very good analysis, coupled with some laughs.

For those of us who know how Wall Street really works, there is money to be made. The corporate sponsored criminals, Um.. I mean media, CNBC, et al, will continue to pump the market, collect their millions dollar paychecks, enjoy the best paid for health coverage, their free limo rides from CNBC headquarters and eat their china service meals, all at the expense of GE shareholders, while the rest of america pays for gas, cars, healthcare, etc. But hey, there has been and is not inflation, right?

The US stock market can now claim the true title of most manipulated and corrupt stock market in the free world..congrats!!

Thanks to our own Fed and gov't basically admitting, even lying under oath..LOL, that they buy cash futures and stocks directly thru their investment banks (who in actuality own the Fed) we truly are in a market that is not free anymore.

For short term speculating:
I use the US market as a trading vehicle to capitalize on short term directional movements.
For my long term buy and hold portfolio (yes i still believe it works):
I buy stocks outside the US that trade directly on exchanges in other countries.

The Us market is proving itself to be one big Ponzi scheme, with zero regulation, and no, "after the fact" regulation does not count.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

As always good analysis.

For those like Karchad, from the above comment i would say, technical analysis is just a portion, of an overall scheme, for looking at stocks or an index.

The fact that the market has not "tumbled" means nothing. The US stock market is now the most manipulated and corrupt market in the free world. Our own government and Fed admits as much that they buy cash futures, and stocks thru their partners as all the major banks (who actually own the FED), as well as their own treasuries to prop up phony demand when foreign governments don't want our treasuries.

The market has been walked up, on not even average volume, since the so called "low" in march. For all the talk of the "bear market" we never actually were in one, and the market went down for only a few short months. The corporate owned media (CNBC, et al) would have you believe the market was awful, etc, yet by any measure the market hardly went down at all.

We are now in a "1984" George Orwell time where people are dumbed down and bombarded with information regarding the market, in order to confused them, and just keep the average american "in the market".

Why? Because most americans hold mutual funds.
You have to keep the average american in mutual funds so the asset gatherers can keep collecting their fees regardless of where the market goes.