Archman Investor

Global Markets in Review: Share Prices Too Far Ahead of Economic Reality

<<Ah the hubris of the Archman....750 remember the prediction..>>
<<Archman,,,you seem to believe in mean reversion when it only
meets your preordained agenda...>>

bbro:
i give no time frame for the 750. Could be next week or next year. The FED is pumping the system and market, mortgaging away the next 3 generations worth of wealth. You cannot fight that. However, that is the "only" thing holding the market up and this so called "recovery".
I don't know what is right or wrong. All i know is that my portfolio is at 2009 levels while the average American's portfolio is at 1999 levels or completely wiped out.
Some people know how to invest, others don't.
I just try and get people to think and stop falling for the lies of Wall Street and the financial media.

Global Markets in Review: Share Prices Too Far Ahead of Economic Reality

Blah Blah Blah.
Anyone who is not a 9 to 5 lifer knows that "profits" are not the real story to a successful business. EPS, and profits are nothing more than manipulated numbers that can be massaged as necessary to "make things work" Just as GE. They have been doing it for decades.
Revenue, and the growth of revenue, is the main number that should be looked at as a first step in accessing a business. If you are making more money, your revenue is rising. You are making less, revenue is falling. Simple as that. 85% of Wall Street earnings showed flat or declining revenues these past quarters.
To put it more simply: That sucks and there is no way to rationalize it.
I could care less about some NIPA corporate profits after tax numbers. The tax code "is" set up for businesses to essentially write down the value of everything so they can show a profit and keep more money legally. That is why 9 to 5 lifers never get ahead. They get their fully taxed paycheck and then have to pay for all their regular expenses with after tax monies, leaving them nothing.

S&P will revert to its 25 year continuation uptrend of 750. Always has reverted to that trend line and always will in the future. The question is which average American suckers will be caught holding the bag by buying into the market "after" it has run up 70% from the lows.


On Nov 22 11:16 AM bbro wrote:

> You miss one on the most important numbers...on Tuesday we
> get NIPA corporate profits after tax numbers....the average ratio
> over the last
> 25 years ( Taking out the extreme over valuation of 1997-2001) is
> 1.20.
> If we get a corporate profits after tax number of 1050. The ratio
> will be
> 1.04.......fair value for the S&amp;P 500 would be 1260.....In fact
> buying when Ratio is below 1.00 has always yielded good profits....

Are Stocks Making a Major Top?

Absolutely.
The market is nothing more than a FED liquidity driven market.
S&P 500 should be at 750 or so which would be at its 25 year continuation trend line. I have no idea when it gets there, but knowing that it should be there, is what counts. Average Americans have no clue about anything, that is why they continue to lose in the markets over long periods of time. Just ask the average American who's portfolio is at 1999 levels when it should be at 2009 levels.

compdivplan.com


On Nov 13 05:31 AM Denis Gould wrote:

> A liquidity driven market can go anywhere, but the foundations for
> the market continue to crumble. For the first time in a while we
> are seeing economic data significantly disappointing. GDP in HK rose
> just 0.4% in q3 (1.9% expected). This is important because HK - as
> a port - is a good barometer for trade. GDP in France and Italy was
> also weaker than expected. Retail sales in Singapore fell 7.9% in
> September alone (a rise of 0.4% was expected).
>
> In the US the key datapoints are unemployment and the budget deficit.
> The former is much worse than the adminstration forecast which means
> the latter will be worse in turn. To get budget deficits back on
> track requires primary budget surpluses for decades to come. The
> inevitable result is economic stagnation as seen in Japan.
>
> A major top may indeed not be imminent. But the market will re-attach
> to fundamentals at some point. The result will not be pretty.

A Look at Annual Real GDP Growth

The author wrote:
<<Update: Just to be really optimistic for a change, if Brian Wesbury is right and Q3 real GDP is later revised up to 4% (from 3.5%), and if Scott Grannis is correct that today's ISM rebound results in Q4 real GDP being as high as 5%, the annual decline for 2009 real GDP would be -2.25% instead of -2.4% as shown in the graph.>>

What have I been saying all along? Look who the author is best friends with? Brian Wesbury. Scott (Calafia beach pundit) Grannis.
You might as well throw Larry Krudlow in there too, cause he is best friends with him as well. What do we know about all these men? Their job is to rationalize every single bit of news as good news.

Fact: The latest GDP report was the result of government spending, in an ongoing process of mortgaging at least the next 3 generations worth of debt. Without the massive amount of government spending going on for the past year, GDP would be negative 4% every quarter.

If the government had spent nothing over the past year on the problems in this country, and just let the process work itself out the following would have happened:

A real God awful recession, maybe even depression would have taken place. It would have reset not only the economic values in this country enabling this country to rebuilt and prosper over the next 100 years, but also would have reset the values of the people in this country. We would actually have to think and move away from quantity to quality. Move away from such meaningless nonsense such as their I-Phones, and how many times a day they post on their FaceBook pages about the meaningless things in their lives, such as why they are feeling tired today or when pathetic women write about how they cannot understand why their kids are brats, etc. (Hint: try spending less time on Facebook trying to appear important and more time with your kids)

Right now there are some individual businesses that are doing well, mostly very small firms that aren't completely reliant on the overall economy, but most businesses are getting by only by cutting costs and cutting staff. Real revenue is still going down, a lot.
As per the WSJ this morning, AIG has now missed 4 dividend payments to the gov't yet the stock has been a bottle rocket. So wait, they cannot pay the gov't yet people are putting money this thing?
Also, business bankruptcies are now reaching an all time high and increasing even faster.

Again, these are facts, I present these items to those who are not brainwashed by the likes of Dr. Perry and his friends on Wall Street.

Remember, these people have one job and one job alone:
To keep telling you what you want to hear, not what you need to hear.

Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level in 37 Weeks

<<So let me get this straight, Larry Kudlow and Mark J Perry are sitting back sipping on cognac plotting and laughing at the demise of the average Joe" Don't they need the average "Joe" to keep their "Ponzi Schemes" going. >>

As a matter of fact, yes they are. They are part of the propaganda machine that works overtime to keep the average American rationalizing bad news as good news.
Do you really think that when average Americans (lets not include us) lost over 50% or more of their net worth in the past 16 months, that these guys lost as much?
Or that these guys have less than multiple seven figures sitting in a bank somewhere from the high powered jobs they made have had, while the average American is flat broke looking forward to social security and a cardboard box living quarters for retirement?
Wake up man, these people are part of the elitist group that truly owns this country and whose goal it is to lie and pump the stock market regardless if it goes to zero.

<<You are obliviously a very bitter man! I can sense it from your profile. Did Wall Street Pass you up for a big job or something?>>

Really?
Oh my, you have me and everyone on here completely figured out now. Oh please stop. I am not going to get into some non-sensical debate about what you "think" you know about me, like you do with many others on here.
Never applied for a job on Wall Street though, just to put your mind at ease. Please, save your non-sense for others you like to harass on here.

Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level in 37 Weeks

Yep truth about guys like Mark Perry sucks don't it?

By the way Nick are you going to follow me around as you do others like Jeff Nielson? Or others who are not falling for the garbage being shoveled by our FED/ Treasury/ and gov't?

You perma-bulls, who desperately "need" stocks to keep going up make me laugh.


<<YOUR A SIMPLETON THROUGH AND THROUGH!

Nick KrahS>>

Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level in 37 Weeks

Mark Perry. (Thats Mr. PHD to you and me folks)

This guy is best buddies with Larry Krudlow (seriously he is) and the other SA contributor Calafia Beach Pundit.

What do we know about these guys?

They are more wealthy than the majority of SA readers and average Americans will ever be. They have absolutely no worries whatsoever about their lives and the future of their families. They are part of the elitist group who sit back and laugh at the struggles of average Americans and who can "rationalize" all bad news as good news.

They write these articles simply so they can call each other up on the phone and pat each other on the back.

They have no concept, nor any relation whatsoever to the plight of average Americans. To them, average Americans are nothing more than a statistic they can use in an article to further their professional elitist career or get mentioned on Larry Krudlow's show.

Period.

compdivplan.com

The Economic Recovery That Isn't

<<The beauty of America and most other free countries is you can follow this simple saying if you choose: "If you don't like it then get the frick out!" You are free to go where you think the grass is greener! How about China, I hear it's just peachy there!

Nick KrahS>>

You must be a government worker? Union worker? Civil servant?
Health insurance paid for? Guaranteed pension perhaps? Or perhaps on disability and "allowed" to keep working 30 hrs per week and perhaps doing yard work to keep the old heart healthy?

Nothing to worry about I guess. Just flip on the latest reality TV program and keep the I-phone by your side in case an "important" call comes in.

American culture in the 21st century.

The Economic Recovery That Isn't

First before I comment some congratulations are in order:

To our Govt, Fed and Treasury, for successfully orchestrating the biggest taxpayer heist in US history.
To that group again, for orchestrating the 3rd stock market bubble in less than 12 years for the sole purpose of letting the media use that rise as "the reason" the economy is getting better. Congrats your asset gathering friends thank you.
To Bill Gross for as always having the correct investment strategy. Of course it helps when you have a red phone in your desk with the Treasury on speed dial.

It took quite a long time before the Roman people understood that their lives were over and their empire was finished. They were once a proactive empire and that is when they flourished. They became a reactive empire, decay on all levels from within set in, the rest is history.

Sounds like another Empire I know and used to believe in.

Michelle Girard: Recovery Ahead — With Jobs

<<your an ass

i follow you

the end >>

Feel free to un-follow me at any time. I do no post here to please people nor make friends. All are welcome to un-follow me if they choose, and trust me, I will no lose a moments sleep.

My comments are nothing but the truth and expose people like Ms. Girard for what they are: salespeople for Wall Street.

Michelle Girard: Recovery Ahead — With Jobs

<<<Michelle Girard is a managing director and senior economist at Royal Bank of Scotland. She appears often on NBC, CNBC, Nightly Business Report, Bloomberg, and Fox News.>>

This woman is just another I D I O T. Period.

She is in essence a sales person. Period.

It is her job to go out there, and tell people what they WANT to hear, rather than tell people what they NEED to hear.

What we know:
Unemployment: awful
Credit Card defaults:awful
Mortgage defaults: awful
Retail Sales: awful
Durable goods: awful
The FED is pledging to: But another trillion in MBS
A few more hundred billion of other crap, and
today they said they have to increase consumer help.

Why? Because things are so great, right?

Stop falling for the lies!!

compdivplan.com

Is This a Sucker's Rally?

I think it is a bit late to be wondering if it is a "suckers rally". I think worrying about that item has long past.

The real question is: Since this is a "FED. liquidity driven, looking for a home rally" how long and high does this rally go? If you were in at
S & P 700, then all you need to worry about it locking in profits.
If you have missed this rally, well my friend, then you have a lot more to lose should the rally stop. At this point, we need to keep watching the FED for signs they are truly taking the money away.

To me, that is the best indicator of this current rally's future strength.

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

Tack:

Don't think I do not agree with you. I do.
Even with most of my wealth in ROTH IRA's.
Everything is so corrupt in this country now.
Geithner cheats on his taxes, gets a pass. and is made Treasury Secretary.
Average Americans make the same "mistakes" and they are told to pay, put in jails, kids out on the street.
Time is running out for this country. I just think 90% of Ameircans do not care anymore or are to scared to care.

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

At S & P 700 I added to existing positions in a big way. I am an investor who sets my sight on 10 year time horizons. For instance my portfolio is current at 2009 levels while the average American's portfolio is back at 1999 levels. I do not gamble and look for consistent returns over time. I have succeeded thus far.

That being said, back in April I made a statement that the powers that be were going to run this market straight back to 1100 on the S & P simply because they could, and with the help of taxpayer money, by God they did just that.

Though "some" data points have been better than usual the following facts remain and cannot be disputed or rationalized:

Corporate profits were a joke. Decreasing revenue, cost cutting and asset sales are NOT signs of an improving business. Playing the "beat the grossly lowered analyst numbers" are joke and only fools who have CNBC inside their heads are believing it.

Unemployment is God awful and the rationalization that losing 570K jobs last month and 20 million still out of work ( the real number) is an embarrassment.

Consumer spending is not coming back. Not for a decade or more. People had start facing up to that fact. I live here on the north shore of Long Island, New York. It is one of the areas of this country were wealth resides and the power that "really" controls this country lives.
The rich are not spending. Even in some of the most popular and tony towns on the island- there are rows and rows of streets with vacant stores that no long have customers. For rent. For rent. For rent. Consumerism is over, finished. The most people want and care about now are the I-phones and Blackberries. Thats it.

The S & P 500 should be at 750 right now which puts it right at its 25 years continuation trend line dating back to 1978. Of course the markets have gone up and the powers that be can take it to 2000 on the S & P. Hey I am not fighting it.

But by God mark my words:
When those powers that be, coupled with the true acceptance of the population that the consumer is over, done, decide that this market is going to unwind this current government financed stock market bubble, average Americans are going to get destroyed once and for all. Those 401K's that became 201K's in 2008 are going to become 101K's when this is all said and done.

I will of course sell many positions to mom and pop Americans at the highs like you will, (it is the nature of the beast, someone wins and someone loses,) but it is going to be a shame to watch the destruction unfold while Wall Street laughs all the way to the bank.

First in, First Out? U.S. Leading OECD Out of Recession

<<First asset markets are a reflection of investor confidence of the future. >>
Wrong. They are a complete reflection of when a government gives tax money to investment banks, and money center banks and says: Here, trade it, make the markets go higher.
It is going to take time for the following realization to occur and for people to accept it:

The US is no longer the world's driver of economic growth and real production. We sold that out over the past decade for easy money and a population that lived 200% over their means.

I found it comical that the author did everything he could to "knock down" other countries such as Canada while trying to portray America as the nation to lead in the future. Comical to say the least. That's not to say that some other countries do not have their share of troubles but it is obvious there are way to many people who think that because we threw so much money at the nation's problems that somehow we are going to come out on top.