Archman Investor

Are Stocks Making a Major Top?

Absolutely.
The market is nothing more than a FED liquidity driven market.
S&P 500 should be at 750 or so which would be at its 25 year continuation trend line. I have no idea when it gets there, but knowing that it should be there, is what counts. Average Americans have no clue about anything, that is why they continue to lose in the markets over long periods of time. Just ask the average American who's portfolio is at 1999 levels when it should be at 2009 levels.

compdivplan.com


On Nov 13 05:31 AM Denis Gould wrote:

> A liquidity driven market can go anywhere, but the foundations for
> the market continue to crumble. For the first time in a while we
> are seeing economic data significantly disappointing. GDP in HK rose
> just 0.4% in q3 (1.9% expected). This is important because HK - as
> a port - is a good barometer for trade. GDP in France and Italy was
> also weaker than expected. Retail sales in Singapore fell 7.9% in
> September alone (a rise of 0.4% was expected).
>
> In the US the key datapoints are unemployment and the budget deficit.
> The former is much worse than the adminstration forecast which means
> the latter will be worse in turn. To get budget deficits back on
> track requires primary budget surpluses for decades to come. The
> inevitable result is economic stagnation as seen in Japan.
>
> A major top may indeed not be imminent. But the market will re-attach
> to fundamentals at some point. The result will not be pretty.