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Ardash Karakashian  

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  • Inflation Signs Are Everywhere Despite Gold's Drop [View article]
    I think one reason for the drop in the price of gold is that in previous FED statements, the expectation was that near zero interest rates would remain well into 2015. The recent FED announcement of linking the interest rate to the unemployment rate may have changed the expectations, meaning that investors now expect interest rates to go up sooner.
    Dec 26, 2012. 07:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Dividend Stocks In A Bubble? [View article]
    $CAT is definitely on my list of undervalued stocks, and I own it. Also, bubbles tend to be general and broad, not specific to a certain category, although different stocks would be at different bubble levels and thus experience different levels of correction, and at the moment I don't see a clearly overvalued market. On the contrary, I think the recent drop which took down mostly some of the freshly listed tech stocks (e.g. $ZNGA, $GRPN, $FB), which I thought had incredibly high valuations, especially with their unproven track records, has at the same time created attractive valuations for the more established names.
    Dec 8, 2012. 07:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Problems With the ‘Shiller P/E Ratio’ [View article]
    If I understand correctly, in order to come up with the EPS for the entire market, there must be some formula that multiplies the individual EPS of the components (S&P500 for example) by their respective weights in the index. So for example if the weight / factor for XOM share is 1.6 (i.e. multiply the share price of XOM by 1.6 to get its contribution to the S&P500 1350), then you multiply the EPS of XOM by the same amount to get its contribution to the S&P500 EPS.
    If this is the case, there's a major flaw in the method, which is evident when you sum both earnings and losses in the market EPS. It's like giving the losing companies a negative market cap which is impossible. Here are my thoughts on the subject.

    docs.google.com/docume...

    Ardash Karakashian
    Apr 26, 2011. 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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