Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed


View Argutori's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • 3 Reasons We're About To See Volatility Erupt [View article]
    Agree - This is a better solution than buying the VXX because you're going to get the kicker from the jump in vol as well as price.

    I found it difficult to find an appropriately long dated put with implied vol that looked low enough. I'd prefer to keep the expiration as far out as possible because I'm unsure of the timing.
    Jul 18, 2013. 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons We're About To See Volatility Erupt [View article]
    This is the issue as I see it, its the Fed vs Animal instinct. When there's a signal to the market that things will turn, it'll turn quickly. I doubt there are enough PR professionals in the US to help the Fed with the task that they're facing.
    Jul 18, 2013. 10:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons We're About To See Volatility Erupt [View article]
    See reply below
    Jul 17, 2013. 10:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons We're About To See Volatility Erupt [View article]
    Tim Li - Why should the vix continue to stay low? What reasons do you have? I'm interested in hearing the other side and that's why I posted this article.

    I agree with Fornes' comments above and that it's difficult to make money by holding the vix and would only do so as a trade or for the optionality.

    Moreover, I believe that it's important to take some money off the table and wait for a correction before building a position. This rally could go on but it has the distinct feeling of a Black Swan (easily visible in hindsight) so I'd prefer to wait than get stuck in a ride out the rally.

    I'm caught up with Nau's comment - I agree that the markets could keep going higher for longer with buybacks etc but at some point companies are going to need to invest in plant and equipment if growth picks up. If companies all make the move at the same time then this would cause inflation to spike (not enough supply to meet the increased demand), which would cause a disruptive rebalancing.

    It's a reflexive argument that depends on the psyche of the participants. As long as companies use buybacks to distribute cash the markets are justified in going higher. Investors will be left with additional cash that they can use to A) reinvest in the surging markets, or B) buy stuff with.

    Regardless of the split there will be a point where people are buying more stuff with their buyback cash. At some point supply for stuff will struggle to meet demand for stuff because the Fed has just created a cash-go-round. Velocity of money picks up and we have inflation + a correction.

    That said, the above process could take some time to play out because the velocity of money is at all time lows ( so the above forecast could be way too early.
    Jul 17, 2013. 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ace Hardware Indonesia: Solid Foundation Worth Twice The Current Price, Based On Thai Comps [View article]
    Derek, it depends on where you're based... I couldn't tell from your bio...

    If you're US based then I'd recommend talking to your broker. If you're based in the Orient, most regional brokers will be able to give you access to the Indonesian market and you could buy it directly. Failing that, Aberdeen ( has it in their portfolio, albeit this is by no means a pure play.
    Jan 13, 2013. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment