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  • Global Sources: Special Situation And Value [View article]
    Is there a odd lot provision, I did not see any?
    Mar 16 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Cinema Destinations: Investing In A Middle-Market Roll-Up Without The Private Equity Fees [View article]
    Richard,

    I think that is a great point, but I think once digital conversion is consummated at these acquired mom and pop theaters, consumers will still attend these cinemas. I think its mostly due to location ( I doubt these theaters will be adjacent to a competitor). Good question though.
    Feb 22 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Cinema Destinations: Investing In A Middle-Market Roll-Up Without The Private Equity Fees [View article]
    (1) IV compounds off an idiosyncratic event i.e. acquiring theaters;
    (2) We take a three to five year outlook;
    (3) That is why you hedge against black swan events.
    Feb 22 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Cinema Destinations: Investing In A Middle-Market Roll-Up Without The Private Equity Fees [View article]
    Klarmanite,

    I am worried about dilution, but if it is for the right acquisition at the right price, then I would be supportive. I think a huge catalyst would be the announcement of some sort of financing facility. If they could get a club deal (3 to 4 banks) to set up some sort of capex/acquisition line, we could see this compound at a fast rate. Thanks for reading.
    Feb 21 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Franklin Financial: Thrift Shopping Among Community Banks [View article]
    I agree Bill, I'm a little concerned by the NPA's, however the Management team has proven their ability to take care of it (along with asset coverage). Do you by chance live in the MSA? If so, I'd like to hear your input on the banking environment in Richmond.
    Oct 23 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charter Financial: Post-Second Step Convert Trading Below Its Tangible Book Value [View article]
    Seeking_Accuracy, you're right about the loan portfolio, I'm a bit scared with what there going to invest in with the run-off funds. However, I think earnings will rise due to 1) release of excess capital next year, most likely through share buybacks (SNL has a good graph showing most of these thrifts buying shares back like mad); 2) redeployment of funds raised, even into government assets will increase NIM, and finally I think there is some slack that can be cut from the efficiency ratio side.

    I haven't posted this, but I did a rough model basically forecasting low growth in TBV for five years, and calculated the IRR exit at the end (@ 1.25 TBV), with dividends leads to a pretty solid IRR.
    Oct 9 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Eagle Outfitters Offers Investors Multiple Ways To Win [View article]
    Thanks for the comments everyone. Yoshhdk, its hard to tell which brand per say will pop first. That is why I almost believe the best bet is a basket of cheap retailers, predicated by 1) Valuation, less than 6.0x EBITDA; 2) Decent capital allocation; 3) Strong financial position, preferably debt/EBITDA less than 2.0x as this supports a going private story; and 4) Optionality to rebound in sales and/or margins.
    Oct 3 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators: Unsustainable Valuation For A No-Moat Business [View article]
    TimeOnTarget, I'm sorry to hear about your experience! It does however, support the thesis. Hopefully you'll be able to recover some of the wasted money.....
    Oct 2 12:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators: Unsustainable Valuation For A No-Moat Business [View article]
    I agree as the short could take time, and it has burned some who shorted the name at ~$80. However I believe recent government intervention should start the fire.

    Further, AMZN trades at an absurd valuation, however it is a game changing business, with arguably a strong moat. On the other hand, LL is a simple retailer in a commodity business with low barriers to entry and no sustainable advantage.
    Sep 30 08:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ascena Thesis Reaffirmed: Positive Developments, Undervalued Business Point To Substantial Upside [View article]
    Thanks for the comments, I'm also looking forward to the Company continuing to acquire platforms. Maybe Chico's would be a prime target, although financing given the size may be difficult.
    Sep 30 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chico's FAS: A Growth Story At A Value Price [View article]
    Its important to note a Company like Chico's isn't an event driven play bound to re-rate within a few months, I view this as a long term 1 - 3 year play before the catalysts materialize.
    Sep 25 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Eagle Outfitters Offers Investors Multiple Ways To Win [View article]
    The sell-side def. believe EBITDA will trough in the low $400MM, however I believe its up in the air depending on the mgmt teams factory build-outs among certain other levers.

    Your definitely right on the Company not going to trade in the 8x range within the next year, however I do believe a sponsor bid in the range is reasonable. As you have noted in your ANF article, the whole sector is cheap, perhaps a basket approach might be the best bet..
    Sep 25 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chico's FAS: A Growth Story At A Value Price [View article]
    According to management, it was a merchandise miss as they experimented with "different" colors at WHBM and an overall weak retailing environment, which has been a consistent story among other retailers.
    Sep 25 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Eagle Outfitters Offers Investors Multiple Ways To Win [View article]
    I don't know how valid this is, but consulting my wife, Forever 21/H &M compete on price, quality however.. is a whole other issue.
    Sep 25 01:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Eagle Outfitters Offers Investors Multiple Ways To Win [View article]
    Fast Fashion is popular and sometimes cheaper options, however I believe American Eagle is addressing the issues through (1) quicker product introductions ; (2) factory store build out - cheaper prices for customers/ higher margins for AEO and (3) quality, especially within denim. Overall, it is a threat however I believe the brand is durable and has the balance sheet to support a rough period or two.
    Sep 25 01:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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49 Comments
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