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  • Continental Building Products: High FCF Yield, Asymmetric Upside Make This Our Largest Position [View article]
    Andrew,

    Great article, we agree and have been adding. A couple items I'd like to note, (1) the Company won't be paying cash taxes over the next couple years which would be incremental upside for FCF estimates and (2) I wouldn't be surprised to see USG/another participation purchasing CBPX and splitting the assets.

    As you mentioned the name is super volatile and trades off housing data. What I love about it is that you win even if housing starts are flat to down given FCF will remain steady (10%+ current yield) and you have huge upside if housing starts normalize.
    Feb 12, 2015. 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Discounting Coupons.com: Follow The Insider Selling And Clip This Coupon Before The Coming Crash [View article]
    Congrats everyone!
    Feb 9, 2015. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Discounting Coupons.com: Follow The Insider Selling And Clip This Coupon Before The Coming Crash [View article]
    They get 10 cents to 11 cent per revenue. Under the royalty card program, they payout 4 to 5 cents to the retailer per my understanding. So really their growth vertical carries lower gm....something the sellside doesn't appear to be modeling.
    Jan 30, 2015. 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Discounting Coupons.com: Follow The Insider Selling And Clip This Coupon Before The Coming Crash [View article]
    Any color on expectations or thoughts on timing for the secondary? Given the Craig Hallum initiation, it looks like they'll probably be leading. I'd be curious to see who are the incremental buyers here.
    Jan 19, 2015. 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freshpet Inc.: A Fresh JOBS Act Short [View article]
    Yea borrow has tightened up a bit. This will probably play out like LOCO, they do the secondary, borrow becomes available and this crashes.
    Jan 17, 2015. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Discounting Coupons.com: Follow The Insider Selling And Clip This Coupon Before The Coming Crash [View article]
    That's called trying to get the secondary. Will it hit $30? Probably not.
    Jan 14, 2015. 10:20 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freshpet: Lessons In Physics And The Evolution Of A Company [View article]
    My thoughts roughly align with Michael's. I wouldn't consider adding new refrigerated meat rolls as technology. Whatever way you slice it...it's still a hot dog.

    The business isn't differentiated as well which can be seen through the introduction of Nature Variety fridges in the pet specialty channel and non-refrigerated meat rolls from vendors such as Natural Balance. If anything, the fridges are a cash flow burden and will continue to keep SG&A and capex elevated. Perhaps one reason why the business didn't sell to a strategic. Additionally as mentioned in my short thesis, there are numerous brands out there today gaining share.

    On the sales side, you do have growth built in through new fridges, yet productivity declines as FRPT penetrates 2nd tier and 3rd tier stores as the best locations likely already have fridges. Actual velocity/SSS is tapped out and actually decelerating.

    The only way bulls will make money is through algo/momo driving up the stock price..but this will likely end once the secondary hits. If I had to choose between going long FRPT or playing craps, I'd play craps all day long. And I suck at craps.
    Jan 7, 2015. 05:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Company In Bain's Portfolio: Bright Horizons Family Solutions [View article]
    Agreed with the above statement. Plus repurchasing equity at $45 from the sponsor isn't prudent capital allocation.
    Dec 30, 2014. 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WhiteHorse Finance: An Orphan BDC At A Deep Discount To Tangible Book Value [View article]
    Yep, you are completely right. A lot of these smaller BDCs are in a tough spot, they can't raise capital and if they do below NAV..the game is over. Thankfully for WHF they have capacity on their revolver to take advantage of weakening credit markets.

    Hence we've taken a basket approach to the space, picking up a handful of names at 20% - 25% discounts to NAV and exiting when they trade to ~90% of NAV. It's a pretty solid way to mint a nice IRR considering the nice coupon you receive. If the discounts continue to persist, sponsors with smaller BDCs will need to consider merging platforms. MVC is actually doing this one a smaller scale with Equus and picking up a really good mezz team but of course they have their own issues with their book and liquidity.
    Dec 26, 2014. 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Glentel Post-Mortem Analysis: Good Things Happen To Companies Trading For 7 Times Free Cash Flow [View article]
    Closed! Rogers agrees to buy a 50% stake in GLN and will drop the lawsuit. That was zainy...

    http://bit.ly/1HIdIKT
    Dec 25, 2014. 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freshpet Inc.: A Fresh JOBS Act Short [View article]
    Let the meat tube games begin........ I just completed another round of pet store due diligence and was shocked to see the end cap filled with a competing product by new entrant, Natural Balance. Recall Natural Balance is an established pet food business with a full line of products (i.e. kibbles, treats, etc.) and is a valued supplier to Petco/PETM given the greater amount of SKUs carried and shelf space.

    Natural Balance's product is superior to both customers and importantly distributors/retailers as they are NOT refrigerated. Ease of use and storage is important and Natural Balance's product is clearly superior in these categories. Furthermore, this further supports our competition thesis and highlights the lack of brand loyalty to FRPT by the pet specialty channel given Nature Variety and Natural Balance's placement. We ultimately think the segment will continue to attract new entrants, further diminishing FRPT's market share and brand name. At the end of the day, FRPT operates in a low barriers to entry segment that is controlled by pet specialty retailers and value-add distributors who are incentivized to carry multiple brands in each category.
    Dec 21, 2014. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glentel Post-Mortem Analysis: Good Things Happen To Companies Trading For 7 Times Free Cash Flow [View article]
    Just an update, RCI is suing in an attempt to block the acquisition. Note this is not on competitive grounds but due to language supposedly in the RCI/GLN supplier agreement. I have no views on how this plays out, but likely BCE/GLN will pay some sort of fee to RCI and that will be that.

    I'd be interested getting involved again if this drops below $15.
    Dec 19, 2014. 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freshpet Inc.: A Fresh JOBS Act Short [View article]
    I guess Freshpet Kitchen has another potential untapped revenue stream......a circus. Per Glassdoor, Thompson likes to make it rain in the factory.


    "I worked at Freshpet full-time (more than an year)

    Pros
    Freshpet has excellent insurance, and is growing rapidly. The product IS amazing and worth being proud of. The employees are excellent people to work with, and driven to do the best they can.
    Cons
    Employees are locked into systematic abuse from management. The CEO visited and offered $100 bills to anyone that would do circus tricks. "Optional" overtime was forced on a couple employees who could not come in due to only finding out they had to work the weekend on thursday. They already had plans! The entire HR system is designed to turn people over and degrade employees. HR has designed a system of points to punish people for everything. Favoritism runs rampant with the supervisors and management. I found out that I was lied to no less than 15 times my first day by my supervisor. I was left waiting for 2 hours before anyone would even talk to me and give me my introduction. Fire drills were never mentioned in the entire time I was employed. I was punished for the behavior of someone else, nobody was interested in finding the truth of the matter, only assigning guilt. This is the worst place I have EVER worked."

    http://bit.ly/1qWbzc0
    Dec 16, 2014. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enova: High Risk, Higher Reward (More Than 100% Upside) [View article]
    Thanks for posting, a few questions.

    1) Any color on the percentage of loans that are rolled over (both same product or category to category)?
    2) Have you been able to find any color on the % of EBITDA/rev derived from fee income such as credit insurance?
    3) EBITDA has benefited partially due to lighter provisioning. Any color or thoughts on this?

    Thank you for your time.
    Dec 15, 2014. 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freshpet Inc.: A Fresh JOBS Act Short [View article]
    Thanks Guve and TysonCap for the replies. I calc'd SSS using period beg and end fridges. % are off yet as TysonCap mentions, the numbers are de-accelerating whichever way you cut it.
    Dec 15, 2014. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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