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Ariel Aharonovich

 
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  • China: The Next Bubble To Burst? [View article]
    Perhaps he owned 20 properties and only then decided to become a waiter...
    Mar 6 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DXJ: A Much Better Exposure To Japan Than EWJ‏ [View article]
    Luke555
    I agree for the time being the LONG JAPAN (equities and SHORT JPY) is a favorable play but I think it won't last for too long.
    As I wrote in a previous comment, I'm willing to draw a line in the sand and forecasting that Japanese equities will pause or pull back in 2 years time. I would be surprised if it won't happen this year actually...
    I just offered a bet to German-Swiss. What can I offer you?... perhaps a Philly steak in NYC?...(-;
    No more bets!
    Mar 6 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DXJ: A Much Better Exposure To Japan Than EWJ‏ [View article]
    German-Swiss,
    You got yourself a bet!
    I'm willing to take my chances saying that Japanese stocks won't move up from now on and over the next 2 years. The cracks would appear before and the pause/correction would take place earlier.
    Are we on for a raclette in Zurich or a beer in München?...(-;
    Mar 6 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: The Next Bubble To Burst? [View article]
    Ben Gee,
    Actually you should be concern about a waiter owning 20 properties (or, as six-oh wrote: "a striper in Las Vegas who owned 6 houses") if these properties were bought through a very high leverage.
    In the good (?) old days, you could get 100%+ mortgage and look where it got us to. One of the first financial lessons that my parents taught me was not to live above what I can afford. Taking a mortgage (or leveraging, generally speaking) isn't a sin. As a matter of fact, leveraging is one of the smartest ways to increase your assets but - and it's a big but - only IF IT'S DONE PRUDENTLY AND SOLIDLY. Taking a loan equal to 100%+, or even 80%-90%, of the value of the asset/property you're purchasing ensures that the slightest problem may turn into a huge problem.
    A waiter or a striper with 5-10-20 properties?... hmmmmmm....
    Unless they somehow finance at least 30%-40% of the deal with their own capital - I would be concerned. Very much concerned.
    Mar 6 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Boot Right Into The Face: Immediate Implications​ Of The Italian Elections‏ [View article]
    This is the area/s where I rather not getting into.
    Lets stick to financials and soft politics, otherwise it would turn into something that neither SA nor I wishing for
    Mar 6 08:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Boot Right Into The Face: Immediate Implications​ Of The Italian Elections‏ [View article]
    From day 1, Monti was a temporary appointment, a compromise under very tough conditions, and I don't think that anyone ever thought that he is going to be popular and win the people's vote. It didn't happen but who knows? - with the way things are being handed right now I won't be surprised if Napolitano appoint him again...
    Mar 6 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Boot Right Into The Face: Immediate Implications​ Of The Italian Elections‏ [View article]
    Humble Value Miner,
    Indeed, the Italian political system seems like a dead-end... compare to Italy, Israel politics looks like a solid rock...
    Seriously, there are many similarities between Italy and Israel - and I don't only refer to the hot temper - so I truly understand what you're saying and where you're coming from.
    I'm not a big fan of Berlusconi; he is for sure not someone I wish to see leading my country from a moral/values point of view. Nevertheless, he has his style and he did some good, perhaps too little... What he said during the "day of memory" was definitely inappropriate, at best, but this is who he is, this is what he is, for good and for bad.
    Personally, I prefer a clown over a racist.
    I love Italy, I love Italians and I mostly love eating ice cream at Piazza Navona. I hope to do so again this summer, so please god.
    Forza Italia! (and I don't refer to Silvio Berlusconi's party...)
    Mar 6 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: The Next Bubble To Burst? [View article]
    Indeed but back then they grew >10% and now only 7%-8%... same forecasts, different outcomes.
    Eventually, what counts are the actual numbers, not the forecasts
    Whether they are reliable (numbers and/or forecasts) is a different story...
    Mar 6 06:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China: The Next Bubble To Burst? [View article]
    Thanks Sam.
    I appreciate you taking the time to provide your view and information from the inside.
    As far as I concern, China still remains under the "Respect it, Suspect it". It's a huge force that can't be ignored, yet a huge risk that must be addressed.
    Mar 6 06:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DXJ: A Much Better Exposure To Japan Than EWJ‏ [View article]
    German-Swiss,

    Thanks for commenting.

    Obviously, what I wrote about the USDJPY is certainly valid for EURJPY or to any other pair where you sell the JPY.

    While I do see further advance for Japanese equities in the short-term (as long as the US markets are up) I believe that in the longer run this won't be the case. You can't win it all and the Japanese policy will take its toll.

    Pension funds indeed reduce their bond purchase but I'm not sure they will shift into bonds. Earlier this week I published an article - http://seekingalpha.co... - that, among other things, speaks about Japanese pension funds and I strongly recommend you to read (at least) the paragraph "The Japanese Yen is Undoubtedly the Ultimate SHORT" that is addressing this issue.

    Japanese bonds yields are indeed one of the main themes and expected results of the current policies. I'm considering myself whether to short JGBs. Nonetheless, history proves that Japan low yields are sustainable (not logically but in reality; that's a fact) so it's hard to go against it or against the myth...

    Good luck with your long equities - short JPY trade but beware: I don't think this is a "free lunch" for too loon
    Mar 6 06:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: The Next Bubble To Burst? [View article]
    Sam,
    Thanks for your comment
    While I tend to agree with your notes one can't help himself not wondering:
    1. Can we count on the statistical data? T what extent the published numbers are or can be "cooked"?
    2. How can a country with so many ("miles of miles" as the "60 minutes" broadcast proves) empty properties be considered a true-reliable engine?. IF this is the case in the most important sector what's the situation in other, less visible, sectors?
    3. With so many Chinese losing their life savings on actual Ponzi schemes - not necessarily this one - how long can this lasts? How long can people "invest" in assets that generate nothing?
    I can probably go on and on but the concept is clear.
    While you may have better internal sources out there - I'm sure you do - sometimes it's the foreign-external-unbiased eye that sees what a local-internal-biased eye won't, don't or can't see...
    Just my humble opinion
    Mar 6 02:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 'A-Team': 4 High Dividend Yield Stocks That You Should Hold And Not Let Go [View article]
    LeftBanker
    Thanks for commenting
    What you wrote actually makes a good point for itself.
    It would be interesting to do a research on how attractive/performing are stocks based on their "well-reasoned negative-side response"?
    Does the lack of negativity indeed make for "very attractive opportunities"?... this requires a very thorough research, perhaps a PhD-like research...
    Mar 6 01:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DXJ: A Much Better Exposure To Japan Than EWJ‏ [View article]
    Thanks TAS and good luck
    Mar 6 01:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DXJ: A Much Better Exposure To Japan Than EWJ‏ [View article]
    Thanks Professor
    This is a very good and valuable point
    Mar 5 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FEMSA Just Keeps Rolling [View article]
    Stephen,
    Aren't you a bit hesitant of such a large cap and after such a massive run? I like the Mexican exposure but I don't like the specific pick...
    Seems like a non-favorable risk/reward play right now, especially if the market will correct
    Very little upside, great potential for downside
    While I like a/o agree most of your calls I'll pass on this one
    Good luck anyhow
    Mar 5 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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