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Ariel Aharonovich

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  • Halliburton: Why You Should Not Buy Now [View article]
    Why You SHOULD Buy HAL Now:
    1. Relatively-steady business where size very much matters
    2. Operating in a country that is expected to become the world #1 producer of oil.
    3. PE at 11 and improving.
    4. share price was at 58 in July 2011 and it is only the GoM implications that prevent the stock from sky-rocketing.
    5. Dividend yield of 1% is poor but this is the situation for a long-time. From here it can only gets better; just think where is the price if they increase the dividend?
    I believe that HAL can easily move another 20%-30% up (to the mid-40s)
    Oct 19, 2012. 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Valero Is Worth Buying On The Recent Dip [View article]
    5 Reasons Valero Is NOT Worth Buying On The Recent Dip:
    1. They hit a 52-week high very recently
    2. They gave back some 15% very quickly
    3. They are shutting off quite a lot of their refineries.
    4. They are selling major parts of the business. I also expect the company to get a sum which is way below the estimated $3.5 billion
    5. Earnings will drop in 2013 and as a matter of fact I expect earning to drop even beyond 2013; it's a new era with (much) lower margins (than they got used to) for refiners
    Oct 19, 2012. 06:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank 7.65% Yields With Brazilian Real Linked Notes [View article]
    Almost everybody forecast higher BRL for (justified) economic/fundamental reasons but not many take into consideration the determination of the Brazilian central bank to keep the BRL weak. They already intervene few times in the last couple of years and the common belief is that a 2 BRL (per 1 USD) rate is their non-official "floor".
    This may of course change within time but if the USD is appreciating against other currencies it will do the same against the Real. In more simple words: if you expect the EURUSD to go to back to the 1.20 (rather to the 1.4) area - you should expect the USDBRL to go to the 2.15-2.20 area.
    Oct 15, 2012. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank 7.65% Yields With Brazilian Real Linked Notes [View article]
    Oct 15, 2012. 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank 7.65% Yields With Brazilian Real Linked Notes [View article]
    Everything you've said is true and valid but these is one crucial thing about these bonds: the currency risk. Although the Brazilian economy is one of the largest and most developing worldwide, the central bank of Brazil is fighting fiercely the appreciation of the BRL vs the USD. The USDBRL was at 1.52 just over a year ago (end of July 2011) and since then lost over one third (!) of its value (currently at 2.04). If you held these bonds during this time you indeed got yourself a very nice coupon but in USD terms - you lost a lot of money. Furthermore, it's now believed that the central bank of Brazil would intervene, i.e. will sell Reals, should the 2.00 level is breached. Therefore, there is very little (if any) room for currency appreciation but there's plenty more room for currency depreciation. Anyone who believes, like me, that the USD is going to rule the world (at least) in the next year or so should be very cautious when buying into such non-USD-linked instruments. I'm not saying that those aren't attractive bonds but they should be handled very-very closely and, if you ask me, should be hedged with a non-USD short position, i.e. instead of being LONG BRL and (consequently) SHORT USD one should try be at SHORT EUR (or GBP or JPY etc.) and LONG BRL; this would reduce the risk from a currency perspective
    Oct 14, 2012. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Reasons Why I've Chosen To Avoid Arch Coal In The Wake Of A Recent Downgrade [View article]
    3 immediate observations:
    1. GS credibility isn't high, to say the least...
    2. Coal as a sector and ACI specifically has plenty of room to go up if the government/political forces let them to.
    3. Short sellers are the only reason for ACI not going higher than it already does. They already suffer a painful squeeze few times recently and I expect the ultimate squeeze to hurt them soon as ACI will surpasses the recent $8 price.
    Oct 9, 2012. 12:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AOL Should Be $29 On Limited Growth Prospects [View article]
    I agree with your view and think that you are too generous with setting the TP at $29 (too high). AOL share price should be mid-20s at best
    Oct 8, 2012. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Nonfarm Payrolls Number Is Negative In A Weird Way [View article]
    I don't (doubt the power of money printing) and I'm not (thinking that the market HAS to go down because the economy sucks) BUT I do think that the economy sucks (fact) and, as a result, the market will go down (at some point). It's a fact that the markets are rallying for months already, actually years, alongside a bad economy but lies, i.e. the employment situation, eventually tend to get revealed and ponzi schemes, i.e. printing money, to fall apart
    Oct 6, 2012. 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Romney Scares Coal Shorts (Video) [View article]
    Welcome back. Where have you been?...
    Finally we can see (and watch) your true look (though I liked your Sheldon Cooper image) and keep on enjoying your smart views and thoughts.
    I don't know if Romney can win but I definitely intend to ride my long ACI till he does... ( :
    Oct 6, 2012. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Nonfarm Payrolls Number Is Negative In A Weird Way [View article]
    The economy is lousy and the markets, long ago, are going up because of the wrong reasons, i.e. artificial support. At some point, I don't know when, there must be an adjustment. Since the economy clearly doesn't improve - even 4 years of pumping huge amount of money haven't succeeded to make things better - I believe that the markets will go down. The NFP #'s are VERY WEAK for quite a long time and the fact that (while the NFP are so weak) the unemployment rate is going down is an even WORSE and WEAKER sign. If new jobs aren't being created how the hell can the unemployment rate go down!?; this is only because of the "miracles" of statistics (not counting those that are not looking for a job anymore etc.). Nonetheless, a person without a job - whether it's being count in the NFP or not - is, well, a person without a job... This is why the economy won't, and actually can't, improve. What you read is meaningless. What you see and what you know is what really counts.
    Plenty of people, more than ever, are hungry and angry. It's beyond my grasp how people still buy into stocks (keep on believing the "there's no alternative" lie) but if you look at simple fact, simple #'s, simple people - you know the truth and it's ain't a pretty one
    Oct 6, 2012. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Halliburton Worth? [View article]
    Oct 5, 2012. 03:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Jump Into Morgan Stanley? [View article]
    Any other big bank - C, BAC, JPM, etc. - is currently offering a much better and brighter prospect than MS (or GS). As a matter of fact, MS is probably the most-used short for investors who wish to get into a long-short financial position. For that single, though simple, reason I wouldn't touch MS!
    Sep 24, 2012. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long And Mostly Short Of [View article]
    Couldn't agree more
    Sep 19, 2012. 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal: Walking Dead [View article]
    Well, even without Romney being elected (yet...) ACI broke the $8 level on Friday. I believe that it can and should climb to a double-digit level BEFORE the election. It's only large short interest that prevent the stock from behaving rationally to (recently published) positive news. Instead of a steady increase we see day-crazy trading which isn't healthy but I guess that in order to take the short players of the way we have to suffer a bit.
    Well, as long as we reach the right and justified levels - I'm ok with it
    Sep 15, 2012. 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Wake Of Annaly's Downgrade, It's Time To Consider Alternative Options [View article]
    With all due respect to the analysts of Macquarie, well - it's only
    Macquarie... No offence but after NLY had a nice run (which calls for some profit taking), while having a very quiet trading day and with lots of possible tension ahead of us in the next couple of hours (or days, or months, or years...) I would expect a harsh underperform downgrade with a $15.5 price target to do a bit more than taking the stock down less than 1% (with normal/average volume)... I rest my case!.
    I'm not saying that NLY can't go down but if it does - I won't hold the guys form Macquarie responsible for it...
    Disclosure: Long NLY and expect the stock to cross the 18-mark during September (perhaps even today...)
    Sep 13, 2012. 12:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment