Seeking Alpha

Ariel Aharonovich

View as an RSS Feed
View Ariel Aharonovich's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Arena Breaking Out Ahead Of European Approval [View article]
    After a 10% rise and a break of the $10 price it's only natural for some profit taking. The -46 cents today is almost meaningless. Some investors simply wish to take some risk off the table and that is not only right but also understandable. The important thing at such a day is not what's the price movement in the first hour or two of trading but the next catalysts, i.e. JPM conference/ARNA's CEO hopefully-positive guidance, possible EU approval, etc.
    I'm long ARNA and I care much less whether today or tomorrow the stock trade at 10, 11 or 9. What I really care about is that they come up with a promising drug and a bright prospect that leads to a successful launch and a massive sales. From there all the nonsense talking about the "right price" and "large short position" would disappear because people would start looking at ARNA fundamentals (not potential) and from there - if things work the way I hope and believe they will - sky is the limit.
    Jan 9 11:04 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons To Stay Bullish On Arena [View article]
    Jan 24 06:52 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Street's Adam Feuerstein makes 13 biotech stock predictions for 2013, with his number one being that the U.S. launch of Arena Pharmaceuticals' (ARNA) and Eisai's weight-loss pill Belviq "will be a major disappointment." Feuerstein also reckons that Belviq will fail to receive European approval. [View news story]

    Here's a reminder to Adam Feuerstein's Biotech Stock Predictions for 2012:

    And here's what he wrote in his prediction for ARNA (and VVUS for that matter): "FDA rejects obesity drugs from Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA_) and Vivus (VVUS_) for a second time. "

    He got it wrong then and he gets it wrong now.

    Follow your brain and heart, follow your own analysis.
    Don't follow peope who think that they understand biotech better than you simply because they received a pen and a paper to write about a sunject they don't know much about...
    Jan 2 10:00 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal: Walking Dead [View article]
    Bear in mind that if Mitt Romney is elected - ACI will soar 50% easilly
    Sep 2 06:54 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Value Gap Not Obvious, Leverage Remains A Challenge [View article]
    I'm supoorting TPG-Axon and hope it wins the proxy fight with SD, aka Tom Ward. If he goes home - SD stock price can easily double!

    For whatever it worth, Tom Ward, CEO of SD, said the outlook for SandRidge has never been better:

    The funny thing is that if Ward vote in favor of TPG-Axon proposal the value of his shares will be much-much higher than if he vote against it.... mega conflict of interest I'd say...
    Since history proves that whenever it came to a conflict of interest between his own personal interests to the company's best interests, Ward has always put his personal interest first - it would be very interesting (though impossible) to know whether he might vote against himself... (-;
    Mar 7 11:30 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Short Interest Declines - So Do Hopes Of A Squeeze [View article]
    The fact that the short interest is down is a good sign on its own.
    You can't hold the rope at both ends; either you have a large short interest that may cause a squeeze or you have a small/er short interest while "giving up" on the squeeze opportunity.
    IMHO, ARNA short interest will continue to go down simply because the good news - and the potential good news - keeps coming in.
    What would (and should) drive the share price up from here is pure economic/financial reasons, not short squeeze (though still possible).
    I'M LONG ARNA based on fundamentals, not based on technicalities!
    Jan 11 05:48 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    The numbers are cooked (long ago)
    Real unemployment is far greater; at least doubled these 7.8%
    Oct 29 09:27 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks And Gold: A Tale Of 2 Markets [View article]
    Buy PHYS instead of GLD
    Feb 26 08:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cirrus Logic: A Case Of Mistaken Identity [View article]
    I'm totally supporting your view on this one
    Patience will pay off
    Feb 22 08:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals, May Be The Last Chance To Get In Under $10 [View article]
    You couldn't pick a better day to say "May Be The Last Chance To Get In Under $10" and "Acquiring Arena shares under $10 per share is reasonable." Good call!
    Good luck
    Jan 14 11:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite the immediate negative reaction to the ouster of Molycorp (MCP) CEO Mark Smith - shares -5.5% premarket - investors may come around to a more positive view. Smith "had lost credibility" with constituents, shareholders, potential investors and analysts, a J.P. Morgan analyst says; "his ability to deal with the financials of an emerging company appeared to overwhelm him at times," says another. [View news story]
    This is exactly why I'm a bit surprised by the market reaction. It can easily be seen as a positive development that may help close the SEC investigation with minimum damage. If that's the case, MCP should rise double-digit %, not fall 6%
    Dec 12 09:13 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Fairfax's Prem Watsa See In SandRidge Energy's Management? [View article]
    SD has some great assets and the company is way undervalued, regardless of management skills. Unlike your own words I come to a completely different conclusion:
    "I understand the attraction to Sandridge from a valuation perspective.". Fully agree

    "I don't understand Mr. Watsa's attraction to the Sandridge management team, considering his investing background from the school of Buffett.". The truth is I don't really care. Sure, if the management would be great that would be a big plus but I got in while assuming that the management sucks. So if it's going to surprised me - it's going to be on the upside.

    "I won't be jumping on board Sandridge as an investor". I did and I would!

    "I will watch the activist efforts from TPG with interest and will be especially keen to see if Watsa and Fairfax go along with plans to sell the company.". So do I but, as I just said, whether it's TGP way (WARD's out) or Wasta way (WARD's in) is not the main driver to invest in SD. Valuation, assets, prospect and growth is. And from that aspects, DS have everything that I need.
    Dec 9 03:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Looks To Be The Clear Winner In The Weight Loss Space [View article]
    This is exactly what I'm always thinking to myself (when comparing ARNA to VVUS): ARNA has a much bigger potential than VVUS when you look at the company rather than only the weight-loss drugs.
    In addition, ARNA is still benefiting form the doubt, i.e. while VVUS already hit the road (with apparently disappointing results/sales) and already suffered a rejection from the EU, ARNA is about do go through the same path. I'm not claiming that ARNA will win the EU approval (if they do - the stock will easily double and triple itself) but until they disappoint - as VVUS already did - they should at least benefit from the doubt.
    Nonetheless, what we have started with is the most important fact: ARNA is NOT a 1-drug company and it's pipeline is promising enough to ensure that it's not solely dependent on Belviq.
    I think that November 6th would be a very interesting day for ARNA shareholders, not only because of the US elections...
    I believe that VVUS can only come up with a positive surprise (the bad nd the ugly are already priced in) which would be also supportive to ARNA.
    The US elections (seems like an Obama win) should also re-encourage the markets (in general) which isn't bad for any given stock.
    ARNA itself, hopefully, will come up with some positive views and news that, if materialized, can take the stock to new all-time highs very soon.
    Good luck. LONG ARNA
    Nov 4 05:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Wake Of Annaly's Downgrade, It's Time To Consider Alternative Options [View article]
    With all due respect to the analysts of Macquarie, well - it's only
    Macquarie... No offence but after NLY had a nice run (which calls for some profit taking), while having a very quiet trading day and with lots of possible tension ahead of us in the next couple of hours (or days, or months, or years...) I would expect a harsh underperform downgrade with a $15.5 price target to do a bit more than taking the stock down less than 1% (with normal/average volume)... I rest my case!.
    I'm not saying that NLY can't go down but if it does - I won't hold the guys form Macquarie responsible for it...
    Disclosure: Long NLY and expect the stock to cross the 18-mark during September (perhaps even today...)
    Sep 13 12:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 'A-Team': 4 High Dividend Yield Stocks That You Should Hold And Not Let Go [View article]
    Thanks Michael
    Valid point... and even for that single reason they're probably better than the index itself...
    Mar 4 09:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment