Seeking Alpha

Ariel Aharonovich

View as an RSS Feed
View Ariel Aharonovich's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Something Is Seriously Wrong With Salesforce [View article]
    This would make us even... I'm already short CRM
    Indeed a ponzi scheme which is mostly based on doubtful accounting practices and a very charismatic CEO... apparently you don't need more than that these days to get people's money...
    Mar 1 10:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pressure Rising Over SandRidge Energy's Governance [View article]
    I totally agree with you. Sooner or later, Tom Ward will go home. Super- rich (on the shareholders' expense) but still unemployed...
    This is where the stock should made a first big move up (while expecting better management, better governance). then after, it's all about operation, earnings and expectations. as it should be with any normal company.
    I'm LONG SD for the LONG run and believe it will pay off. This isn't a large cap that delivers 10% per annum. This is a volatile stock that may deliver nothing - as it did since its IPO - but at some point it can rocket 100% for the most obvious and expected reasons: change of management, hostile takeover, etc. I believe that this point of time is quite close.
    Jan 19 05:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simply Put, Longwei Petroleum Worth $6 Or More Per Share [View article]
    Simply Put, Longwei Petroleum Worth nothing. A big fraud.
    Sorry for you and all other investors who lost their money.
    Jan 4 09:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Shares Look Somewhat Stretched At These Levels [View article]
    I usually agree with your opinions and positions. Not this time.
    First of all, as someone who is LONG both GOOG and AAPL (equal share) nobody can blame me favoring one over the other. They are all my sons.
    Since we share the same opinion over AAPL I see no reason to spill words over Apple thus I'll focus on GOOG.
    I don't see the linkage between AAPL fall to GOOG rise. GOOG fell solely due to a disappointing financial reports and that took it from ~760 - an all time high - to ~680. Then after it was simply quite a bad market (-6% after Obama re-election) that took it down further (till 650 or so) and allow to investors like me jump on the wagon at a fantastically low price (660 in my case).
    GOOG is a great company that is controlling any product/segment they get into. Moving back from 650 to 724 (at the time of writing) is nothing but natural correction to the one-off miss. Obviously, the 750-770 area represents a technical resistance that GOOG need to break in order to gain new momentum but think about it this way: the same way GOOG tanked 10%+ after a disappointing financial reports it can easily soar 10%+ should it beat the earning expectations next time. This is the market healthy reaction to bad or good surprises.
    Since I'm a big believer in GOOG for the long run and since I also think that the market is poised for a run up I strongly believe that the stock can and would reach 800 during the next 3 months. From there, it would be up to the numbers. At the current PE 22.67 GOOG doesn't seem like the best pick in town but if indeed they come up with a surprisingly good numbers - the PE will drop and then it's a matter of valuation, prospects and the other usual stuff.
    For now, GOOG is a BUY, not because AAPL is up or down but on its own merits.
    Jan 3 04:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  •'s Investment In Fulfillment Can't Be Much Slower [View article]
    As always, it's a pleasure reading your articles Paulo.
    It always amazed me how you can come up with a new angle and a new perspective of Amazin ongoing fake story. Speaking of a story, I think that by now you can probably write a book in regard to "WHY AMAZON STOCK PRICE MUST BE HALVED" or something of that sort...
    "RockieK" wrote above - and rightly so - that "There is a saying - The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". BUT there are another 2 famous sayings:
    1. "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can't fool ALL of the people ALL of the time." (From: A. Lincoln)
    2. "If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck..."; when it comes to AMZN you may replace the "duck" with a "suck"
    Dec 19 08:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Fairfax's Prem Watsa See In SandRidge Energy's Management? [View article]
    I don't divorce the value of the company from the management performance. I'm saying that SD has a good value even if you assume that its management isn't performing. Just imagine where would the stock price will be if both (assets/company valuation, performing management) are attractive
    Dec 10 08:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Apple Bottom Friday? [View article]
    Sure it's a buy at 475 BUT it may never gets there...
    I believe that the 5-xx is the lowest area code for AAPL
    this is why I bought last Friday at 516
    Nov 18 06:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget the low end of JPMorgan's (JPM) assertion of $0-$6B in possible losses from the FHFA lawsuit over $33B in MBS, writes Alison Frankel. A judge's Monday decision allowing the suit (and a similar one against Merrill Lynch) to go forward blew up nearly every argument made by the banks, including the key one that Frannie - being so sophisticated with MBS - should have known better. The banks don't want this is front of a jury. Look for a settlement before the summer 2014 trial date. [View news story]
    Wouldn't you follow banks stocks whether you're long or short?
    As a matter of fact, wouldn't you follow banks stocks regardless of any position you hold simply because banks stocks are a main driver of the market direction (either way)?
    Nov 11 03:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Reasons Why I've Chosen To Avoid Arch Coal In The Wake Of A Recent Downgrade [View article]
    3 immediate observations:
    1. GS credibility isn't high, to say the least...
    2. Coal as a sector and ACI specifically has plenty of room to go up if the government/political forces let them to.
    3. Short sellers are the only reason for ACI not going higher than it already does. They already suffer a painful squeeze few times recently and I expect the ultimate squeeze to hurt them soon as ACI will surpasses the recent $8 price.
    Oct 9 12:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Analysts Love Teva [View article]
    Great company, lousy stock. That's the whole story in 4 words
    Owned it, sold it, don't intend to invest again. Too boring, going nowhere...but wish I turn wrong. TEVA investors deserve much better yield than the market provide them with!
    Sep 10 01:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Growth Story Continues And Will Pay Off [View article]
    I hear you, understand you but think you are acting the wrong way here.
    If you'd done you research and analysis properly, got to a certain-clear conclusion AND AS LONG AS FUNDAMENTALS HAVEN'T CHANGE - STICK TO YOUR CONCLUSION.
    What you're suggesting is simply to always follow the trend. Well, the trend was your best friend till 2008... Anyone who didn't follow the trade - made (or could make) a fortune.
    The fact that AMZN is up today 8% after being down 8% in the after-hours of Thursday just emphasize the fact that it's not truly about numbers or logic but about UNSUSTAINABLE SPECULATIONS. I don't know who the hell bought AMZN on Friday buy I can assure you this: no one bought it because he read AMZN reports and said to himself: "wow, those are great numbers; let’s get in". I strongly believe that people like you - who got short squeezed - rushed to buy it and I'm pretty sure that many VERY STRONG LONG positions holders got out on the very same day you got in...
    Sure, AMZN can ride another 5%-10%, especially if the fed acts next week, but based on my research and calculation it doesn't worth over 100bn and the share price shouldn't be 2xx.
    I may prove wrong - and you'll be happy - but as long as there's nothing new that contradict my conclusion I intend to stick to it. As a matter of fact, if AMZN goes up to 260 (+10%) - I'll most probably doubly my short!
    Jul 29 06:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Overvalued Stocks Versus The Most Undervalued Stocks - Part I [View article]
    An update regarding SandRidge (SD) which is part of the undervalued stocks list:

    I'm supporting TPG-Axon and hope it wins the proxy fight with SD, aka Tom Ward. If he goes home - SD stock price can easily double!

    For whatever it worth, Tom Ward, CEO of SD, said the outlook for SandRidge has never been better:

    The funny thing is that if Ward vote in favor of TPG-Axon proposal the value of his shares will be much-much higher than if he vote against it.... mega conflict of interest I'd say...
    Since history proves that whenever it came to a conflict of interest between his own personal interests to the company's best interests, Ward has always put his personal interest first - it would be very interesting (though impossible) to know whether he might vote against himself... (-;
    Mar 7 11:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 'A-Team': 4 High Dividend Yield Stocks That You Should Hold And Not Let Go [View article]
    Hi DividendInvestorLA and thanks for commenting
    NMM is obviously a different ball fame than MMLP
    I believe that the record high prices that the shipping industry had been enjoying until 2007-early 2008 are gone forever.
    Those who stay in the business should have done the necessary adjustments - and NMM did.
    Negative news from China, like the ones from today, don't help much. China, unsurprisingly, is key for the entire shipping industry to sustain itself.
    While China may not gown >10% anytime soon (though, unlike shipping prices this is definitely achievable) it's still a major engine that pushes forward no-matter-what.
    Between the four stocks I've mentioned NMM is clearly the most risky one but this also why it pays more than the others...(-;
    The most important thing, when it comes to high yielding stocks, is to diversify. Don't hold 1 or 2 - but 5-10 - and don't put too much money into them. As much as they are great companies and great opportunities - they are NOT Microsoft, IBM or even Apple...
    Mar 4 02:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 'A-Team': 4 High Dividend Yield Stocks That You Should Hold And Not Let Go [View article]
    Thanks for commenting.
    Allow me to start by saying that I have nothing against CMRE. Nevertheless, NMM offers almost x2 dividend yield and the stock price of CMRE is much more volatile than that of NMM.
    For the purpose of this article - retirement, safety, risk/reward etc - I find NMM to be more attractive.
    Don't forget that CMRE is a public traded company for only 2+ years which is also something that need to be taken into consideration.
    Mar 4 07:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Arena's Belviq Priced Right? [View article]
    Out of the gate it appears that Qsymia is hardly selling (VVUS reports just out; missing big time on both top and bottom lines) so regardless of the pricing issue Belviq has a good shot to make a kill
    It all comes down to Belviq efficiency on one hand and ARNA successful marketing pn the other hand
    The ARNA's CC scheduled for next week (MArch 4) would shed some light and provide an important outlook
    Feb 25 05:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment