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Ariel Aharonovich

 
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  • DXJ: A Much Better Exposure To Japan Than EWJ‏ [View article]
    Lets seal the deal with a meal @ Hiltl
    Mar 7 04:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DXJ: A Much Better Exposure To Japan Than EWJ‏ [View article]
    Luke555
    I agree for the time being the LONG JAPAN (equities and SHORT JPY) is a favorable play but I think it won't last for too long.
    As I wrote in a previous comment, I'm willing to draw a line in the sand and forecasting that Japanese equities will pause or pull back in 2 years time. I would be surprised if it won't happen this year actually...
    I just offered a bet to German-Swiss. What can I offer you?... perhaps a Philly steak in NYC?...(-;
    No more bets!
    Mar 6 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DXJ: A Much Better Exposure To Japan Than EWJ‏ [View article]
    German-Swiss,
    You got yourself a bet!
    I'm willing to take my chances saying that Japanese stocks won't move up from now on and over the next 2 years. The cracks would appear before and the pause/correction would take place earlier.
    Are we on for a raclette in Zurich or a beer in München?...(-;
    Mar 6 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DXJ: A Much Better Exposure To Japan Than EWJ‏ [View article]
    German-Swiss,

    Thanks for commenting.

    Obviously, what I wrote about the USDJPY is certainly valid for EURJPY or to any other pair where you sell the JPY.

    While I do see further advance for Japanese equities in the short-term (as long as the US markets are up) I believe that in the longer run this won't be the case. You can't win it all and the Japanese policy will take its toll.

    Pension funds indeed reduce their bond purchase but I'm not sure they will shift into bonds. Earlier this week I published an article - http://seekingalpha.co... - that, among other things, speaks about Japanese pension funds and I strongly recommend you to read (at least) the paragraph "The Japanese Yen is Undoubtedly the Ultimate SHORT" that is addressing this issue.

    Japanese bonds yields are indeed one of the main themes and expected results of the current policies. I'm considering myself whether to short JGBs. Nonetheless, history proves that Japan low yields are sustainable (not logically but in reality; that's a fact) so it's hard to go against it or against the myth...

    Good luck with your long equities - short JPY trade but beware: I don't think this is a "free lunch" for too loon
    Mar 6 06:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DXJ: A Much Better Exposure To Japan Than EWJ‏ [View article]
    Thanks TAS and good luck
    Mar 6 01:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DXJ: A Much Better Exposure To Japan Than EWJ‏ [View article]
    Thanks Professor
    This is a very good and valuable point
    Mar 5 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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