Seeking Alpha

Aristides Capital

View as an RSS Feed
View Aristides Capital's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Facebook's Resilience Is An Important Reason To Own It Here [View article]
    For your easy 36% a year scenario to pan out, FB would be a $977 bil company 5 years from now, and yet still sport a 41x multiple. That seems pretty unlikely.
    Dec 17, 2014. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Energy: A Mispriced Equity That Is A Unique Value Play [View article]
    of course they did. companies always say the deal is still on, until either it closes, or it is suddenly off.

    sorry if it seems we are giving you grief. this is actually a really interesting idea. we put a little bit on today.

    I am not a big fan of the net exposure if one just goes long ATLS and short .1809 TRGP. What do you think about additionally shorting 0.475 ARP for each ATLS? Makes it less of a net long trade (in case oil continues to crater and the deal falls apart), and clearly the 24.7 common of ARP is a big part (i.e. the majority) of the ATLS stub value. It doesn't take out the merger risk, but it does remove some of the commodity risk.
    Dec 10, 2014. 07:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rentech says CEO Ramsbottom resigns [View news story]
    thanks for all the memories, Hunt. you've been a model to us (of the sort of management to avoid).
    Dec 10, 2014. 07:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Energy: A Mispriced Equity That Is A Unique Value Play [View article]
    thanks for sharing this. it doesn't seem like many folks are playing this arb. the main question we would have is an obvious one: given market conditions, what confidence do you have that this deal actually goes through, and goes through at the previously negotiated price? the $9.12 per share in cash makes much less sense now that the bottom has fallen out of oil.
    Dec 10, 2014. 01:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freshpet Inc.: A Fresh JOBS Act Short [View article]
    "I probably won't be buying this product again unless he really begs."

    Either this commenter really does wear Amazon Prime diapers, and has a dog incontinent of stool, or else you've been trolled. I'm going to go with the latter.
    Dec 8, 2014. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Resorts Is Skiing Just Ahead Of An Avalanche [View article]
    "The EPR debt also prohibits any distribution if the fixed charge coverage ratio (which includes distributions) is 1.25 to 1 or lower."

    Thanks. That is a key point I largely glossed over.
    Dec 4, 2014. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Resorts Is Skiing Just Ahead Of An Avalanche [View article]
    Keubiko, great article. Thanks for sharing such quality content. From a valuation perspective, I'd be worried that retail investors completely look past the unsustainability of the dividend and buy the stock anyway at these prices "for the income." On a fairly frequent basis, high net worth investors tell me how they are moving parts of their portfolio to things that have a 3% payout or an 8% payout and no upside, which makes zero sense to me when there are still companies out there with a 10-12x P/E, predictable earnings, and double digit ROEs. The first dividend cut should be a huge catalyst for your trade to work, but of course, it is hard to know ahead of time when that actually will be.
    Dec 3, 2014. 08:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Resorts Is Skiing Just Ahead Of An Avalanche [View article]
    are you suggesting that his EV calculation does not take into account the cash raised in the IPO?

    don't leave us hanging... inquiring minds want to know.
    Dec 2, 2014. 02:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics May Enter The Obesity Space - What Does It Mean? [View article]
    "ETRM Maestro Device will put bariatric surgery (250k a year) in the trash bin."

    what? this is so far off-base as to be ridiculous. Maestro is far less effective than bariatric surgery. It is like comparing grapes to watermelons.

    comments on this site are more valuable when they avoid hyperbole.
    Nov 18, 2014. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confusion Leads To Pacific Health Care Organization Sell-Off And Opportunity [View article]
    The Copperfield piece had some hyperbole about "being banned" etc, but their thesis on BBSI was just proven correct yesterday.
    Oct 30, 2014. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blue Earth: Strong Sell On Law Enforcement Investigation, Fraud Allegations And Paid Stock Promotion [View article]
    good call. gave you grief for one of your other calls recently, so will give credit where credit is due on this one.
    Oct 21, 2014. 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accelerate Diagnostics: Mistakenly Rewarded And Destined To Crash? [View article]
    "AXDX has yet to even begin clinical trials on the diagnostic testing system that it began developing an entire decade ago."

    We have done several hours of research on this company, and spoken with management twice on recent occasions. We have no position presently. For background, I was an Internal Med doc for 7 years prior to running Aristides.

    This article may "work" to push the stock down, as we have concerns about the company's valuation at present, but this is the single most misleading SeekingAlpha article I have ever read from a short author.

    For starters, the assertion that clinical trials have not yet begun is a complete fabrication. The company has done a great deal of impressive clinical work, and it is available on their website.

    With respect to the "tarnished record" of former executives, while this company did have a serious overpromise/underdeliver problem under former management, the current slate of executives not only have stellar backgrounds and histories of proven success at their prior firms, but also they have invested large amounts of their own money in AXDX shares. Unlike companies that dump stock on third parties via secondary offerings, these guys have done rights offerings to raise capital and have participated with their own money in every single one.

    This stock has a high valuation, but the technology is legitimate and tested, about to enter a pivotal clinical trial, and will be a game changing, life-saving innovation if successful. With a high-margin razor/razorblade model. Readers can short the company if they'd like, but they would be well advised to actually learn a little bit about it before they do.
    Oct 14, 2014. 12:11 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix Is A Buy On Endpoint Circumstances [View article]
    Gremlin, when you say, "stopped out," did you literally have a resting 23,000 share stop limit order out there for $6.25, or was it more of an internal decision to cut losses? just curious. tia.
    Oct 2, 2014. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ImageWare Systems: -86% Downside, Strong Sell, Smart Money Eager To Sell At $1.05 [View article]
    good to see the longs in this name are already familiar with "SOL".
    Sep 19, 2014. 10:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uni-Pixel Delivers [View article]
    not "everyone" else got deceived. but the deceived ones did a pretty good job running the stock higher for a long while.

    congrats for taking responsibility for the bad call. all good investors admit and learn from their mistakes. most investors just shove them aside.
    Sep 16, 2014. 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment