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  • Biolase: Why Your Dentist Is Short This Stock [View article]
    "Lasers are dead. That's why BIOL is looking to shift into the much faster growing Imaging vertical."

    "Rumor on The Street is (actually this isn't a rumor as ...I've said way too much already)..."

    what? what? WUT?
    May 19, 2015. 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CorMedix: High Probability Of Phase 3 Success? [View article]
    We believe the p3 will cost on the order of $30 million.

    One simple question for you: if much of great data is from 2001 to 2004, why do you suppose it is that this asset has been unable to find major financial backing in the 11 years since then?

    This company is just one more in a long line of recent story stocks over the last two years where someone has raised a little bit of capital touting some magic asset that has been around for a long time and has gained absolutely zero traction with capable large pharmaceutical companies. It is a great recipe for a short, again and again.
    May 19, 2015. 08:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biolase: Why Your Dentist Is Short This Stock [View article]
    Shorting stocks based on historical financials with little awareness of a turnaround effort is a recipe for figuratively having your head served to you on a platter.

    The effective owners of BIOL did a massive recap in November 2014 where they injected cash into the business at $2.39 per share, and have aggressively committed to improving this business.

    Much of the poor performance you cite was under prior CEO Pignatelli, who is at a minimum idiosyncratic and tremendously egocentric, and based upon the financial results was a terrible leader. He was kicked out by the institutions who now own much of BIOL's stock. In spite of his poor performance, he is still smearing current shareholders and management. He is also practically delusional. Ask yourself what sane man launches a proxy contest thinking he is a great improvement to current management, and then receives less than 1-2% of the vote?

    It takes time to turn around a company, but the current team has improved product quality greatly, and has sales of core products growing again year-over-year rather than shrinking. Of course expenses have risen faster than sales in the last quarter, as when you hire many new sales reps, it takes them at least 6 months to become very productive. We expect to see this company exiting 2015 with significant revenue growth and cash flow breakeven, with large opportunities for revenue and earnings growth in 2016-2018.

    The new CEO announcement last evening is huge. While Nugent is a good man and a competent leader, the industry-specific knowledge that Flynn brings is very hard to come by.

    Long story short, we are happy to be on the opposite side of the trade as you, and we absolutely are, from a cost basis of $2.10.
    May 19, 2015. 08:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CorMedix: High Probability Of Phase 3 Success? [View article]
    Who exactly is going to pay for this phase 3 trial of which you speak?
    May 18, 2015. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shorting Opko Health Makes No Sense After The Q1 2015 Earnings Report [View article]
    while we covered our short position the day of the Pfizer announcement, i have to take issue with one of your claims re 4k. based on the data, the auc for 4k in predicting aggressive prostate ca was 0.82 vs 0.74 for PSA. so it is not as if every 4k test saves one biopsy. more like 12 4k tests save one bx. so if they charge anything close to the >$1100 list price discussed on the cc, the cost effectiveness of the test is quite iffy.
    May 16, 2015. 02:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Latest FDA Contrave Rhetoric Is A Departure From Reality [View article]
    "There is still an 81% post-test probability that Contrave cuts the relative risk of cardiovascular events by at least 10%, a 93.7% post-test probability that Contrave the hazard ratio is less than or equal to 1.00 (i.e. there is only a 6.3% chance that Contrave raises the risk of cardiovascular events), and there is only a 0.02% probability that Contrave raises CV risk by 40% or more. In other words, even under statistical assumptions that are unrealistically punitive to Contrave, the initial interim data still prove exactly what the FDA wanted Orexigen to show in a post-marketing trial, in spite of John Jenkins of the FDA insisting the opposite."

    I was, admittedly, very surprised by the severity of the second quarter of the LIGHT data. I would, however, point out that even a really angry Steven Nissen pointed out that LIGHT does effectively rule out CV risk at the 1.40 HR level, which is what it was intended to do. And the final HR (or at least as final as we are going to get) was indeed below 0.90 (at 0.88).

    As for the stock, we actually went short yesterday at 6.48. (apologies to anyone long the stock because of this article, but if you follow me on Twitter, you'd have known of our short very quickly after we put it on). The lack of CV benefit is major bad news for the company.

    The other thing people seem to be forgetting is that one of the leaks of the first interim LIGHT data was, in fact, to Takeda. Takeda thought they were partnering a drug that had CV benefit. Now they learn it does not. Ouch. So it's no wonder that Takeda is being testy on the legal front and now trying to see if they can push OREX into changing deal terms re the funding of the 2nd cardiovascular outcomes study.
    May 13, 2015. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impac Mortgage Is A Story To Watch In 2015 [View article]
    thanks David. fwiw, spoke with IR regarding those preferreds as they did look pretty juicy to me at first glance. apparently by 2/3 vote long back (2008-2009?) they had an exchange offer and basically stripped them down completely so that they have no dividend rights at all. the $25 liquidation preference is all that a holder is entitled to, and that would pretty much only happen in a liquidation scenario (so you'd have to hope the debt that was senior to you was fully paid and there was money left over for you). sounds like a tough investment.
    May 12, 2015. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impac Mortgage Is A Story To Watch In 2015 [View article]
    which preferred are you long and why do you like it? thanks.
    May 12, 2015. 07:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrett Business Solutions: Buy For A Double In 2015 [View article]
    Good call so far. I'm still not at all sure that this company is actually making any money at all, but in this market, nobody really cares about such esoteric things as "earnings quality." The only decent shorts are the ones about to be revealed as obvious frauds, and even then, timing is everything.
    Apr 30, 2015. 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reiterating An Earlier Take On Kona Grill - Avoid [View article]
    1.indpendent folks can add great insight. it just so happens that you didn't add any in this article.
    2. no, they are not independent. but some of them are insightful.
    3. I don't care about brokerage analysts "as a group" any more than I care about blacks, Asians, or Hispanics "as a group," hedge funds "as a group," or seeking alpha authors "as a group."

    If one understands a business, one can gain an edge. If one looks at a bunch of historical financials with very little understanding of the underlying business (i.e. what you've done here), one is not likely to have an edge.

    I didn't realize when I wrote my first comment exactly how little knowledge of KONA you actually had, or how little interest you had in knowing more about the company. Now that I do, it's pretty obvious that a back-and-forth isn't going to be constructive.
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reiterating An Earlier Take On Kona Grill - Avoid [View article]
    the difference is that (at least in the case of Mark Smith at Feltl, who is one of the best if not the best restaurant analyst on the street) they have a model that looks at restaurant level comps and profitability and pre-opening expense, whereas Doyle is looking at past summary income figures in a spreadsheet somewhere, and by the tone of his answer I doubt he's even bothered to read the brokerage research.
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ForceField Energy: Undisclosed Promotions And Management Connections To Past Frauds [View article]
    Wow. We covered at 4 so missed the best part. This should be trading for under a buck when it eventually reopens. Great article.

    As for the comments by ralph i smith, Buffet's Ghost, and Cawoman1, it just goes to show that there will be longs or pumpers reflexively bashing the author and the article of every short idea, no matter how well written the article is and how true its contents.
    Apr 20, 2015. 12:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reiterating An Earlier Take On Kona Grill - Avoid [View article]
    KONA's existing base of restaurants is very EBITDA positive. but because they are opening several new restaurants, it drags that EBITDA figure down. are you honestly saying you'd pay more for a small restaurant chain with huge ROIC that distributed a dividend instead of the same restaurant chain that appropriately decided to allocate its capital to the higher ROIC opportunity of growing the business? your comment makes my head spin.
    Apr 20, 2015. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reiterating An Earlier Take On Kona Grill - Avoid [View article]
    KONA's existing base of restaurants is very EBITDA positive. but because they are opening several new restaurants, it drags that EBITDA figure down. are you honestly saying you'd pay more for a small restaurant chain with huge ROIC that distributed a dividend instead of the same restaurant chain that appropriately decided to allocate its capital to the higher ROIC opportunity of growing the business? your comment makes my head spin.
    Apr 20, 2015. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reiterating An Earlier Take On Kona Grill - Avoid [View article]
    "EVERY company with 0 EBITDA is expensive. Period." That is just one of the most misinformed statements I've ever seen.

    Doyle, the value of a stock is the present value of its FUTURE cash flows. if If KONA has 0 ebitda this year but a chance to deploy capital at 30% cash-on-cash returns in a scalable way going forward, and in so doing corporate-level opex as a % of revenue continues to decline (i.e. operating margins rise even if gross margins stay the same), then obviously their ebitda won't be zero for long; to the contrary, the organic cash flows of the business will support new restaurant builds and continual annual growth in ebitda.

    If your statement that any 0 ebitda company is expensive were to be true, it means you wouldn't buy KONA at $8 or $5 or even $1. That is insane.
    Apr 20, 2015. 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
391 Comments
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