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  • Peak Resorts Is Skiing Just Ahead Of An Avalanche [View article]
    "The EPR debt also prohibits any distribution if the fixed charge coverage ratio (which includes distributions) is 1.25 to 1 or lower."

    Thanks. That is a key point I largely glossed over.
    Dec 4, 2014. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Resorts Is Skiing Just Ahead Of An Avalanche [View article]
    Keubiko, great article. Thanks for sharing such quality content. From a valuation perspective, I'd be worried that retail investors completely look past the unsustainability of the dividend and buy the stock anyway at these prices "for the income." On a fairly frequent basis, high net worth investors tell me how they are moving parts of their portfolio to things that have a 3% payout or an 8% payout and no upside, which makes zero sense to me when there are still companies out there with a 10-12x P/E, predictable earnings, and double digit ROEs. The first dividend cut should be a huge catalyst for your trade to work, but of course, it is hard to know ahead of time when that actually will be.
    Dec 3, 2014. 08:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Resorts Is Skiing Just Ahead Of An Avalanche [View article]
    are you suggesting that his EV calculation does not take into account the cash raised in the IPO?

    don't leave us hanging... inquiring minds want to know.
    Dec 2, 2014. 02:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics May Enter The Obesity Space - What Does It Mean? [View article]
    "ETRM Maestro Device will put bariatric surgery (250k a year) in the trash bin."

    what? this is so far off-base as to be ridiculous. Maestro is far less effective than bariatric surgery. It is like comparing grapes to watermelons.

    comments on this site are more valuable when they avoid hyperbole.
    Nov 18, 2014. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confusion Leads To Pacific Health Care Organization Sell-Off And Opportunity [View article]
    The Copperfield piece had some hyperbole about "being banned" etc, but their thesis on BBSI was just proven correct yesterday.
    Oct 30, 2014. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blue Earth: Strong Sell On Law Enforcement Investigation, Fraud Allegations And Paid Stock Promotion [View article]
    good call. gave you grief for one of your other calls recently, so will give credit where credit is due on this one.
    Oct 21, 2014. 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accelerate Diagnostics: Mistakenly Rewarded And Destined To Crash? [View article]
    "AXDX has yet to even begin clinical trials on the diagnostic testing system that it began developing an entire decade ago."

    We have done several hours of research on this company, and spoken with management twice on recent occasions. We have no position presently. For background, I was an Internal Med doc for 7 years prior to running Aristides.

    This article may "work" to push the stock down, as we have concerns about the company's valuation at present, but this is the single most misleading SeekingAlpha article I have ever read from a short author.

    For starters, the assertion that clinical trials have not yet begun is a complete fabrication. The company has done a great deal of impressive clinical work, and it is available on their website. http://bit.ly/1u0J20r

    With respect to the "tarnished record" of former executives, while this company did have a serious overpromise/underdeliver problem under former management, the current slate of executives not only have stellar backgrounds and histories of proven success at their prior firms, but also they have invested large amounts of their own money in AXDX shares. Unlike companies that dump stock on third parties via secondary offerings, these guys have done rights offerings to raise capital and have participated with their own money in every single one.

    This stock has a high valuation, but the technology is legitimate and tested, about to enter a pivotal clinical trial, and will be a game changing, life-saving innovation if successful. With a high-margin razor/razorblade model. Readers can short the company if they'd like, but they would be well advised to actually learn a little bit about it before they do.
    Oct 14, 2014. 12:11 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix Is A Buy On Endpoint Circumstances [View article]
    Gremlin, when you say, "stopped out," did you literally have a resting 23,000 share stop limit order out there for $6.25, or was it more of an internal decision to cut losses? just curious. tia.
    Oct 2, 2014. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ImageWare Systems: -86% Downside, Strong Sell, Smart Money Eager To Sell At $1.05 [View article]
    good to see the longs in this name are already familiar with "SOL".
    Sep 19, 2014. 10:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uni-Pixel Delivers [View article]
    not "everyone" else got deceived. but the deceived ones did a pretty good job running the stock higher for a long while.

    congrats for taking responsibility for the bad call. all good investors admit and learn from their mistakes. most investors just shove them aside.
    Sep 16, 2014. 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 21Vianet Group Exposed [View article]
    wow. epic report. nice work!
    Sep 10, 2014. 11:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Is More Than Just A Short-Term Ebola Trade [View article]
    4 subjects received vaccine (2 doses each); additionally there were two controls.

    thanks for the other ideas. will take a look; so much good stuff is going on in biotech today, and so many pretenders as well. it's a good environment to sort the good from the bad.
    Aug 29, 2014. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Is More Than Just A Short-Term Ebola Trade [View article]
    Interesting article. Given the unclear commercial opportunity for ebola at the present time, I think if you are buying one of the companies in this space, it's important to like their other opportunities as the primary driver for the investment.

    We haven't done much work on TKMR, but I do like Immunovaccine (IMV.V) and we participated in the recent offering there at 95 cents and are long the stock. The recent animal study in which four out of four macaques survived ebola exposure (vs. 0 of 2 controls), following dosing with a vaccine formulated using Depovax (Depovax is basically a liposomal formulation to help the vaccine antigen to have a chance to be persistent long enough when injected subcutaneously that the immune system can really interact for a long time with the antigen and create a large and durable immune response), is an impressive start, but I probably wouldn't assign a large value to the ebola opportunity right now. (We bought IMV.V because we think their ovarian cancer product that is entering p2 actually has some promising early data, and although the company's approach isn't as technologically cutting-edge as some of the amazing cancer immunotherapy that is in clinical trials elsewhere right now (like KITE's, for example), the IMV.V product would be potentially quite easy to manufacture and easy for patients to receive, which is very important even in cancer).
    Aug 28, 2014. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Montage Technology: An Attractive Deal With 22.8% Annualized Return [View article]
    This isn't actually an earlier deadline. It's simply that the missed q2 report caused them to have to file a plan that says "hey, we have a plan," by Sep. 3.

    However, I have a hard time believing we'll actually see an annual report filed by Sep. 29. With MONT, who really knows?
    Aug 25, 2014. 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Montage Technology: An Attractive Deal With 22.8% Annualized Return [View article]
    Intel was a very early investor in MONT, years before the company came public, because of their support for the memory buffer side of the business. At the time Intel made their investment, MONT didn't even have an SoC set-top-box business. They did have the beginnings of a front-end chip business for set-top boxes, but RDA later came in and completely drank their milkshake, which is probably why the shenanigans started in the first place. "Hey, look at our miniscule memory buffer revenue and our shrinking, money losing front-end set-top-box chip business" probably would have been a bad pitch on the Montage IPO Powerpoint presentation.

    Intel makes some good investments and some bad ones. Look at the millions of dollars they gave to UNXL.
    Aug 25, 2014. 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
368 Comments
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