Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Aristides Capital  

View Aristides Capital's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Reiterating An Earlier Take On Kona Grill - Avoid [View article]
    1.indpendent folks can add great insight. it just so happens that you didn't add any in this article.
    2. no, they are not independent. but some of them are insightful.
    3. I don't care about brokerage analysts "as a group" any more than I care about blacks, Asians, or Hispanics "as a group," hedge funds "as a group," or seeking alpha authors "as a group."

    If one understands a business, one can gain an edge. If one looks at a bunch of historical financials with very little understanding of the underlying business (i.e. what you've done here), one is not likely to have an edge.

    I didn't realize when I wrote my first comment exactly how little knowledge of KONA you actually had, or how little interest you had in knowing more about the company. Now that I do, it's pretty obvious that a back-and-forth isn't going to be constructive.
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reiterating An Earlier Take On Kona Grill - Avoid [View article]
    the difference is that (at least in the case of Mark Smith at Feltl, who is one of the best if not the best restaurant analyst on the street) they have a model that looks at restaurant level comps and profitability and pre-opening expense, whereas Doyle is looking at past summary income figures in a spreadsheet somewhere, and by the tone of his answer I doubt he's even bothered to read the brokerage research.
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ForceField Energy: Undisclosed Promotions And Management Connections To Past Frauds [View article]
    Wow. We covered at 4 so missed the best part. This should be trading for under a buck when it eventually reopens. Great article.

    As for the comments by ralph i smith, Buffet's Ghost, and Cawoman1, it just goes to show that there will be longs or pumpers reflexively bashing the author and the article of every short idea, no matter how well written the article is and how true its contents.
    Apr 20, 2015. 12:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reiterating An Earlier Take On Kona Grill - Avoid [View article]
    KONA's existing base of restaurants is very EBITDA positive. but because they are opening several new restaurants, it drags that EBITDA figure down. are you honestly saying you'd pay more for a small restaurant chain with huge ROIC that distributed a dividend instead of the same restaurant chain that appropriately decided to allocate its capital to the higher ROIC opportunity of growing the business? your comment makes my head spin.
    Apr 20, 2015. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reiterating An Earlier Take On Kona Grill - Avoid [View article]
    KONA's existing base of restaurants is very EBITDA positive. but because they are opening several new restaurants, it drags that EBITDA figure down. are you honestly saying you'd pay more for a small restaurant chain with huge ROIC that distributed a dividend instead of the same restaurant chain that appropriately decided to allocate its capital to the higher ROIC opportunity of growing the business? your comment makes my head spin.
    Apr 20, 2015. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reiterating An Earlier Take On Kona Grill - Avoid [View article]
    "EVERY company with 0 EBITDA is expensive. Period." That is just one of the most misinformed statements I've ever seen.

    Doyle, the value of a stock is the present value of its FUTURE cash flows. if If KONA has 0 ebitda this year but a chance to deploy capital at 30% cash-on-cash returns in a scalable way going forward, and in so doing corporate-level opex as a % of revenue continues to decline (i.e. operating margins rise even if gross margins stay the same), then obviously their ebitda won't be zero for long; to the contrary, the organic cash flows of the business will support new restaurant builds and continual annual growth in ebitda.

    If your statement that any 0 ebitda company is expensive were to be true, it means you wouldn't buy KONA at $8 or $5 or even $1. That is insane.
    Apr 20, 2015. 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ForceField Energy: Undisclosed Promotions And Management Connections To Past Frauds [View article]
    how can a company with less than $20 mil annual run-rate revenue, unprofitable revenue at that, in a low-margin commodity industry (LED lighting installation) possibly lose $54 million of market cap and still have $71 million of market cap left? I think that's your main problem. company was at least 6-fold overvalued (probably more than that given their history of losses, dilution, and tenuous balance sheet) and Pearson brought attention to it. no crime here. just a stupid price on an asset becoming a less stupid price.
    Apr 17, 2015. 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reiterating An Earlier Take On Kona Grill - Avoid [View article]
    not every company with roughly 0 ebitda is expensive.

    if it costs $3 million to build a restaurant, and the restaurant delivers 30% annual cash-on-cash returns, then $10 million a restaurant is not out of the ball park to value the company at.

    SHAK and KONA are about to have roughly the same amount of revs this year, but KONA's EV is $250 mil, and SHAK's is 2.2 billion.
    Apr 17, 2015. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Professional Diversity Network: Dilution Coming, Avoid From The Long Side [View article]
    fwiw, we had no position before the capital raise but did participate significantly in the raise. The past business model was, as you pointed out, not viable. However, now you have a business that is growing organically at an impressive clip, that has a clear path to cash flow positivity by the end of this calendar year (management is cutting $3 million in op ex), trading at just under 1x EV/revs. Frankly, continued revenue growth and progress with cost control measures are going to be the drivers for the stock. I don't care whether they write down intangibles or not. We believe this stock should be close to $6 within 12 months.
    Apr 17, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reiterating An Earlier Take On Kona Grill - Avoid [View article]
    no position in KONA presently (we bought in the 4s-7s and sold out way too soon in the 8s and 9s), but this article is "investing by Excel" at its worst. when a small restaurant chain has a lot of pre-opening expenses because it has gone from a pause in opening restaurants to a period of rapid opening, those pre-open expenses are going to temporarily suppress earnings.

    if you want to be short KONA and you want the short to work, you're going to have to believe that unit economics are deteriorating in some fashion. the stores have great 4-wall profitability and a history of pretty strong comps. at 1.8x 2015 revs, there are much more egregiously expensive stocks in the restaurant space, many of whom have worse restaurant-level margins or worse cash-on-cash returns compared to KONA.

    sometimes a stock just goes against you because your thesis is wrong.
    Apr 16, 2015. 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ForceField Energy: Undisclosed Promotions And Management Connections To Past Frauds [View article]
    congrats for making your first-ever comment on Seeking Alpha.

    the 10K is now out. looks like they continue to lose millions of $s, continue to dilute shareholders continually, barely have any cash, and yet still trade at an astronomical price/sales compared to other companies like OESX that are in the same line of business but do not have shady management. that is some tasty pudding if one is short.

    this company should be trading with a 0-handle.
    Apr 16, 2015. 10:31 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trillium Therapeutics Is An Overvalued Biotech Stock [View article]
    no position here and I honestly haven't done the work to know whether or not Celegene's mAb binds RBC's the way the company's slide deck says the "commercially available" mAbs do, but if you are shorting "because it's preclinical" while ignoring the fact that this seems to be a second-in-class and likely best-in-class compound against a really promising target with broad applicability, you are likely to be in a lot of trouble in this market before you ever get to see the data. there are so many companies out there with similar valuations and much worse therapies. look at how the secondary has traded, man. this thing obviously has solid institutional support after the recent offering (which was led by firms with high-quality biotech analysts). gun to the head, would much rather be long here than short. who is to say this isn't worth a billion with a B if phase 1 shows some especially promising data.
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accelerate Diagnostics' Big Lie Exposed By SEC - $1.00 Target Within 18 Months [View article]
    Thanks for the thoughtful comment. We aren't long either. I think the valuation is high.

    I merely found Michael Ambrozewicz's comments objectionable because I think one should have an understanding of what a company's product actually does before bashing it.

    This Philips/Unisensor AST does indeed sound very, very similar to what AXDX is doing. The extent it has an advantage because it "actually exists as a tangible product" is debatable, as the website mentions the words "proof of concept" repeatedly. The AXDX product exists, is being manufactured, and has been delivered to quality teaching hospitals for the purpose of their pivotal clinical trial. I would suspect that AXDX is actually farther ahead in terms of getting to market.

    Thanks for bringing information to the discussion. That is what makes SA worthwhile.
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Accelerate Diagnostics' Big Lie Exposed By SEC - $1.00 Target Within 18 Months [View article]
    1. I am most certainly not your friend, rhetorically or otherwise.
    2. In spite of you now making 27 comments on this article, zero of them have demonstrated any knowledge of the way the AXDX machine determines antibiotic sensitivity (which is most certainly NOT PCR). It's one thing to have an informed bearish opinion on a security. It is quite another to just speak ill of a company when you literally do not understand its core technology or possible competitive advantages.
    Mar 25, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accelerate Diagnostics' Big Lie Exposed By SEC - $1.00 Target Within 18 Months [View article]
    Thanks for your muddled, nonsensical answer. Now anyone can plainly look at your other 24 comments on this article and discern how much you understand about the company's technology and how it works.
    Mar 25, 2015. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
367 Comments
484 Likes