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Aristofanis Papadatos

 
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  • Target: The Gist Of The Earnings Report
    Yesterday, 2:57 PM TGT 37 Comments

    Summary

    • In today's earnings report, the management of Target continued its string of lowering its guidance for this year’s earnings. From the initial EPS $5.50 a year ago to $3.20 now.
    • Despite the lower guidance, the company has to improve its performance by 70% in the second half of the year in order to meet the guidance of its management.
    • Given the performance and the debt figures I analyze, I expect the management to lower again its projected earnings in the next few weeks.
  • Share Buybacks: The Good And The Bad
    Yesterday, 12:06 PM AAPL, AXP, AZO 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Share repurchases increased 50% in the first quarter, standing at $155 B. It is the third largest amount ever spent on share repurchases.
    • Investors should pay great attention to the efficiency of the share repurchases. If they are not executed correctly, they waste the money of the shareholders.
    • Gathering the data of the first semester, I assorted the most popular companies that perform significant buybacks based on their efficiency.
  • When The Aggressive Distribution To Shareholders Is Promising
    Wed, Aug. 13 PM, DTV, VIAB 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Some companies offer a very high distribution (in the order of 10%) to their shareholders. However, this does not guarantee a great profit to the shareholders.
    • Investors should check some elements in the balance sheet to determine whether the company can maintain its high distribution rate.
    • Philip Morris has stretched its balance sheet to the extreme and hence it cannot maintain its past rate of share repurchases.
    • On the other hand, Viacom has a healthy balance sheet so its shareholders can rely on the stock to maintain its exceptional returns for many years.
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: Why You Should Grasp This Rare Opportunity
    Thu, Jun. 19 CBI 44 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of CBI has plunged lately due to a report from Prescience Point, which accused CBI of manipulating its balance sheet.
    • In an almost identical case, Moody's stock plunged 20% in 2 days last year, but the news was soon forgotten and the stock has doubled since then.
    • The great growth potential of CBI, thanks to the energy boom, the endorsement of Buffett and the technical reaction of the stock, render the current situation an excellent opportunity.
  • Is There An Imminent Bear Market? Don't Ask
    Thu, Jun. 19 SPY, DIA, ROST 42 Comments

    Summary

    • As the market is celebrating its third anniversary without a single correction next month, investors are becoming increasingly worried that a significant correction or even a bear market is imminent.
    • However, no-one can time the market consistently. Humans tend to predict what just happened instead of what is about to happen.
    • There are still many experts waiting for the final collapse after the one 5 years ago. They cannot realize that the collapse occurred and is not going to happen again.
    • The current bull market has been fueled not only by the Fed but also by the great (once in a generation) expansion of the American companies abroad.
    • As history has taught us, the market advances to unprecedented highs every 10-20 years. The market currently seems to be in its first steps of its generational advance.
  • A Great Bargain In Today's Fully Valued Market
    Thu, May. 29 CONN 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Conn's lost almost half of its value a few months ago, when the company reported that the delinquency rate of its customers rose from 8.5% to 8.8%.
    • The stock is now trading at an attractive P/E of 13, and is expected to grow its EPS by 23% next year.
    • Some insiders have already grasped the opportunity, and David Einhorn has acquired a 9% stake in the company, characterizing the concerns as overblown.
  • Target Corporation: The Factors To Consider
    Wed, May. 28 TGT 36 Comments

    Summary

    • The outlook for the EPS of this year has incurred several downward revisions, from $5.50 nine months ago to $3.75 recently.
    • As the current outlook still implies 15% growth for this year, I expect more downward revisions to come soon.
    • The management did not mention any steps to imrpove its Canadian segment, which continues to incur heavy losses.
    • Although the company has consistently repurchased its shares for years, even at elevated prices, the weak balance sheet has recently eliminated share repurchases and leaves little room for future buybacks.
    • The technical picture of the stock shows a clear downtrend, with no signs of bottoming yet.
  • A Rare Opportunity To Profit From Volatility
    Tue, May. 20 SPY, DIA, VXX 33 Comments

    Summary

    • The market has been consolidating around all-time highs and Fed has been curtailing its program so many investors are seeking a way to hedge against an imminent correction.
    • Selling part of the portfolio or buying put options have both been very damaging strategies during the whole 5-year bull market.
    • The current value of VIX and the time remaining till the expiration of its June futures offer a very rare opportunity to profit from a spike in volatility.
  • Michael Kors: The Factors To Consider
    Mon, Apr. 28 COH, KORS 20 Comments

    Summary

    • KORS has exhibited exceptional growth without raising any debt. The question is whether it is a bargain at the current elevated price.
    • As the company generates 85% of its revenue in North America, there is ample room for growth in Europe. Moreover, the company can even double its stores in the US.
    • Given the example of its competitor, COH, it is reasonable to assume that the high-growth era will end only after the initiation of a dividend.
    • Nevertheless, given its high market cap and its extremely fast growth, this is not a buy-and-hold stock. In addition, only investors who can handle high volatility should consider this stock.
  • General Mills: Some Points That Are Rarely Mentioned
    Wed, Mar. 12 GIS 27 Comments

    Summary

    • General Mills has excellent prospects for further international growth in Europe, Asia, Canada and Latin America.
    • Its double-digit total yield and its growth potential make it a rare value play in today's almost fully valued market.
    • Nevertheless, investors should closely monitor the efficiency of the share buyback program as the company spent $1 B last year with almost no reduction in the share count.
  • Why Total Is Likely To Continue Outperforming Exxon And Chevron
    Editors' Pick • Wed, Mar. 5 XOM, CVX, XOP 27 Comments

    Summary

    • While capital expenses have greatly escalated for the oil companies in the last few years, Total seems to be better positioned than Exxon and Chevron.
    • As Total provides detailed figures for its projected 30% increase in oil production by 2017 and its recent record is on track, it is likely to accomplish its goal.
    • Based on Total's projection, we calculated that its earnings per share will increase by about 30% in 2017, which means a compounded annual return of 12% till 2017.
    • Given the above and the great difficulties Exxon and Chevron are having in replenishing their oil reserves, Total is likely to continue outperforming Exxon and Chevron.
  • Why IBM Should Follow The Example Of Apple
    Tue, Feb. 25 AAPL, IBM 31 Comments
  • Ross Stores: A Great Growth Stock With At Least 20% Upside
    Wed, Feb. 12 ROST 7 Comments
  • Has The Market Topped?
    Mon, Jan. 27 DIA, SPY 40 Comments
  • Selling Puts Of High-Dividend Stocks For Maximum Yield
    Wed, Jan. 15 AAPL, BBBY, CTSH 108 Comments
  • Are The Aggressive Buybacks Signaling The Top Of The Bull Market?
    Dec. 5, 2013 AAPL, IBM, SPY 32 Comments
  • The Great Strategy Of Trading On The Fundamentals
    Dec. 3, 2013 COH, IBM, YUM Comment!
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters: Why The Market Reacted Like This
    Nov. 21, 2013 GMCR 18 Comments
  • What Are The Real Earnings Of These Premium Companies?
    Nov. 14, 2013 MCD, WMT, PG 2 Comments
  • Why The Oil Companies Are Cheap
    Nov. 6, 2013 BP, COP, CVX 60 Comments
  • Exxon Mobil: Finally A Good Earnings Report
    Oct. 31, 2013 XOM 14 Comments
  • Bed Bath & Beyond: Many Years Of Growth Ahead
    Oct. 24, 2013 BBBY 5 Comments
  • Philip Morris: What To Keep From The Earnings Report
    Oct. 17, 2013 PM 9 Comments
  • Is Yum Brands A 'Buy' After The Earnings Report?
    Oct. 16, 2013 YUM Comment!
  • The Best Recession-Proof Stocks
    Oct. 2, 2013 IBM, LLL, WMT 23 Comments
  • Exxon Mobil: Disappointing Earnings Report And What To Expect
    Sep. 9, 2013 XOM 22 Comments
  • Which Share Buybacks Are The Most Sustainable?
    Aug. 26, 2013 AAPL, AZO, BBBY Comment!
  • Philip Morris: A Great Opportunity Is Arising
    Jul. 9, 2013 PM 20 Comments
  • Why The Market Will Go Higher
    May. 28, 2013 DIA, SPY 12 Comments
  • A Great Bargain In Today's Fully-Valued Market
    May. 22, 2013 CTSH 8 Comments
  • Should You Sell Before Wal-Mart's Earnings Report?
    May. 13, 2013 WMT Comment!
  • Should You Buy Before Or After Chevron And Exxon Report Their Earnings?
    Apr. 22, 2013 CVX, XOM 14 Comments