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Arne Alsin

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  • Is IBM In Trouble? [View article]
    very good, you summarized it perfectly
    Jun 15 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Really A Bull Market? [View article]
    I'm betting the end of QE won't end the bull market... we'll get a cyclical bear later, maybe in a couple years, when the Fed pushes hard to slow things down, e.g., inverted curve.
    Jun 11 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Really A Bull Market? [View article]
    It doesn't factor in the fraction (which is big and growing) of American business value that's attributable to globalization, e.g., John Deere used to sell principally in the North American continent, now it has manufacturing and sales in emerging economies, much of which is not reflected in US GDP. It skews the number. The indicator is no longer useful...eventually we'll have a useful one with world GDP and world market value (netted against private co's).
    Jun 10 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Really A Bull Market? [View article]
    The energy boom, yes... and housing is just getting started, the 30% drop in inventory tells you prices are too low. Very bullish.

    FLEX is a straightforward model, looks reasonable to me. I'm looking for models where analysts are overlooking or failing to discount a material variable, e.g., NCR with the pension.
    Jun 8 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Really A Bull Market? [View article]
    feral rotweiler... excellent imagery

    "...where have you been for the last 4 years?"

    http://bit.ly/17tAqce
    Jun 7 07:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Ten History [View instapost]
    Nobody can beat AMZN on price, and they're so far out front, and now with the benefits of scale...those datacenters suck massive capex... which makes GOOG the only viable competitor...duopolies are cool.
    Jun 3 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 Pick: Buy Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    WB is not a trader, most of his positions are in place for the next decade... IBM is a mistake, and it's going to get slapped, but he's got some hidden gems that will offset, e.g., BAC warrants.
    May 21 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 Pick: Buy MGM Resorts [View article]
    The company is saving $250Mil in interest expense this year because of 2 recent refi's... debt is manageable, it was much higher relative to revenue before the crisis.
    May 21 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: A Disaster In The Making [View article]
    Your comment is typical of someone in the business... seriously, talk to IT people? They are the ones being disrupted, who stand to lose... you think they'll give me the straight scoop?

    The public cloud is a low-margin utility... you think Azure and Google Compute and AWS are high-margin? CRM uses the public cloud, they are not the public cloud.

    The key with IBM is all it takes is a tiny incremental shift and their operating model doesn't hold up, can't raise margins, can't cut costs enough, and can't drive revenue higher, even by buying lots of other co's.
    May 20 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arne Alsin's #1 Pick: Amazon.com [View article]
    Yes, NCR, talk about an easy ride... AMZN for the long haul, to 2020 and beyond.
    May 19 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis [View article]
    Nice, New Low Observer... somebody who doesn't accept the nonsense.
    May 13 08:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arne Alsin's #1 Pick: Amazon.com [View article]
    Depends on what you mean by low-margin; Software co's are high margin, retailers like HD are low-margin, HD sells at 1.2x sales... don't forget a growth premium too... AMZN is more like HD b/c of durability and quality of the model, worth 1x plus a growth premium; it's growing at 20% per year (30% in North America).
    May 13 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good News, The Bad News And What's Very Ugly [View article]
    Excellent Franklin Bird. Seriously, indeed. The fundies are getting better and there is a lot of money to be made in stocks.
    May 11 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: A Disaster In The Making [View article]
    Agree, but here's the problem: you can't justify a $220Bil market cap ($105Bil rev) on services... they need fat margins from hardware (already commoditized) and software (headed the same direction). Unfortunately for management, the model needs restructuring and there just aren't any options available to them that will protect the stock.
    May 10 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: A Disaster In The Making [View article]
    Thanks hdweiner; All of your comments are spot on... some of the IBM fans would do well to pay attention.
    May 9 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
307 Comments
165 Likes