Depends on what you mean by low-margin; Software co's are high margin, retailers like HD are low-margin, HD sells at 1.2x sales... don't forget a growth premium too... AMZN is more like HD b/c of durability and quality of the model, worth 1x plus a growth premium; it's growing at 20% per year (30% in North America).
Agree, but here's the problem: you can't justify a $220Bil market cap ($105Bil rev) on services... they need fat margins from hardware (already commoditized) and software (headed the same direction). Unfortunately for management, the model needs restructuring and there just aren't any options available to them that will protect the stock.
Brian, don't accept what all the bears are saying about debt without thinking it through... net household assets are $67 trillion, we've increased public debt to $17 trillion, that's awful, but it's hardly catastrophic... debt service is 1.5% of GDP, it was 3% in 1989. Bull markets are tough to recognize early on, you have to see through a lot of nonsense.
Lealane,as AWS is getting into enterprise, this is the pushback I've heard from consultants, that some of the bigger retailers don't want to deal with AWS because it's an AMZN company...it's understandable.
And when you bought at $40, what was the PE? It looked expensive ten years ago, five years ago, one year ago... it's not hard to figure out what this model will look like when they slow earnings... if you're not comfortable thinking like that, avoid the stock. But to investors that short the stock, whew, it could get really ugly for you.
Competition for elite talent is intense. It'll be easier for AWS to attract top talent if they have AWS options to offer. There's also the "anybody but Amazon" mentality among IaaS users, many of whom compete with AMZN so it's understandable. AWS would have an even bigger share if not for this dynamic.
You state the bear case, very good. If investing were as simple as buying based on current PE (as opposed to prospective), it sure would be easy. Amazon is making ever-increasing gross profit dollars, that's what you should key on, not what they drop to the bottom line in the short-term.
IBM: Checking The Corporate Temperature [View article]
WB missed the paradigm change, plain and simple. Everything doesn't have to move to the cloud to ruin IBM. The model is wound tight, with no room for error; you can't push margins any higher, you already cut expenses to the bone, and hey, funny thing is, #1 player and all can't seem to raise revenue, they can't even buy revenue (which is a major red flag). Any enterprise CTO will tell you it started late last year and it's accelerating now, the pressure to reduce IT costs, and the public cloud is on the table as way to save 90% or more in costs. This imperils IBM because they can't compete.
Egads, you need to do a little more research. IBM is beating nobody to the public cloud, it's ceded the IaaS market to AMZN and GOOG; MSFT Azure is a niche player, but IBM is nowhere to be found in the public cloud, not in hardware, software or services. ORCL, VMW, Teradata, they're all feeling the squeeze. IBM's pain is just beginning.
Netflix is all-in on the public cloud because it's saving tens of millions of dollars, Christmas Eve notwithstanding. Re security, this is IBM's argument and it's not holding up. You'd be surprised how much is already on the public cloud and from enterprise customers: Bristol Meyers, Shell, Nasdaq, Unilever, News Corp all have major efforts on the public cloud.
An S&P 500 Forecast: Up, Up And Away [View article]
Yes, I moved DHI capital into a different homebuilder, one that I haven't written about. Still like DHI a lot: top tier name, sterling balance sheet, etc.
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Arne Alsin's #1 Pick: Amazon.com [View article]
Arne Alsin's #1 Pick: Amazon.com [View article]
Arne Alsin's #1 Pick: Amazon.com [View article]
Arne Alsin's #1 Pick: Amazon.com [View article]
IBM: Checking The Corporate Temperature [View article]
IBM: A Disaster In The Making [View article]
IBM: A Disaster In The Making [View article]
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