Arsuron Papartassee

While Cree Is Great in LED, Veeco May Be a Better Stock

Nice comparison. What's your take on AIXG?

Stock Checkup: Meridian Bioscience (VIVO)

Please refer to my original post on my blog. My writeup was posted at 3:37pm. Once I submit this to SeekingAlpha, it took a little time to post. Frankly, I don't quite care what exact price as long as it is in a range. Selling today would still give you 25%.

Now, about the coming flu season and their new product. May be investors knew about this back in May and bought the stock up to this level. Another word, it is PRICED IN. Honestly, I DON'T KNOW!

All I know is this stock pay 4% yield at the time I bought. Selling it today (25% gain) gives me 6.25x the dividend payment. I wrote this because I saw better opportunity in Abbott which have underperformed. I do not suggest people jump in and out. I suggest people weight in risk/reward.

Automatic Data Processing: Better Suited to Survive This Downturn than Its Competitors

I understand that dividend are paid from cash flow, but if you fail to earn, you will deplete into your cash for dividend. As a more conservative investor, I look for risk/reward and constantly asking myself what am I willing to pay for this stock. Currently ADP appears to be a better bargain.
About inflation or deflation, I frankly don't really care and aren't too concern about it.
All I know is ADP is trading at a big discount relative to its past. Its future is unknown but I believe in reversion to the mean.

I'm going to look into PAYX.

These are great comments!

On Jul 20 12:44 PM maz wrote:

> Paychex is the better opportunity. You are correct on the dividend
> payout ratio but you pay dividends from cash not earnings - the cash
> payout ratio is still high but at 70% is better than the earnings
> payout ratio.
>
> A big key for Paychex & ADP is the inflation/deflation debate.
> Right now they are both earning very little off customer float and
> their own cash because interest rates are so low & a deliberate
> policy to preserve capital & maintain liquidity. Paychex interest
> income is less than half long term average on $4 billion cash (float
> + own cash). If you believe we're in for Japan like deflation this
> will continue for many years. If you believe that at some time -
> may be 2, 3 or 4 years - inflation will really take hold then these
> guys will get a big boost

Automatic Data Processing: Better Suited to Survive This Downturn than Its Competitors

I agree with all the comments. PAYX has no debt, but my concern is the risk of dividend cut. With payout ratio sitting at 86%, PAYX has little room to fall on earning basis before depleting into their cash. But 0 debt will allow them to borrow at a lower rate so it's also a plus. Now that I see so many interest on PAYX, I will do a research on that name shortly.

The 1982 case was just an example and I don't expect the stock to mimic that. They were not paying out dividend then so I wasn't able to see their yield then.

Thanks for all the constructive comments.

Stocks on My Watchlist: Apple, Google, Cardinal Health

archangelms:
It's true Google trades at lower P/E than Amazon and Yahoo. I stated clearly that I see Google as a proxy for corporate spending on advertising. I don't view Amazon and Yahoo as such. I don't feel jealous of anyone who made money in the stock. I never own Google before and do not considering the stock as an investment. For a P/E of 25+, may I suggest VIVO which performed just as well as GOOG. Take a look at this chart (picasaweb.google.com/l...)
The stock also pay great dividend with strong history of raising it.

reinharden & Timeline Strategy Consulting:
Great point you make on Apple growing top & bottom line. But something always beating analysts' estimate that have me skeptical. Based on CNBC earning central, Apple have been beating since 1Q06 (data.cnbc.com/quotes/A...). It may be longer than that, but it doesn't show. Over the past 2 quarters, the company beat estimate by more than 20%!!! (28% last quarter) and yet, the stock is trading below 2008 level when the biggest beat was 13.3% in 4Q08. The chart above tells me more than what balance sheet tells me.
Look, Apple make great products. In fact, I use ALL their products including laptops, phone, and networking appliance. I also urged everyone in my house to switch to Apple. I also would love to work for them, but as a stock, I do not want to have my money there.

Thank you for all your constructive comments.

Choose Phillip Morris, Not Altria

Hyperinflation man,

Great post. Here's my thought on the whole currency issue.
I questioned when you say "negating significant currency risk" because I saw a different outcome when many firms when out of business due to wrong "hedge" they took on the Korean won. I'm sure PM has a sophisticated team or broker they deal with and thus this scenario is probably less likely. Frankly if MO cost is in US$ and revenue is in US$, I see nothing wrong.

On the earning and yield side.
MO is expected to grow 7% compares to PM at 14%
Yield on MO is at 8% compares to PM at 5%
If EPS growth comes true, then you would have MO at 15% upside compares to PM at 19%.
I have concern for PM price because it is trading at 13.7x compares to MO 9.5x P/E. That's 44% premium! If PM falls short of expectation, it would really hurt the stock.

As long as you pay the right price, both companies are great. I do own MO right now but I would low to own PM at P/E below 10.
Great work.

H.J. Heinz: Almost Ready to Supersize My Position

Bill Gross (PIMCO) said today "Investors should also protect themselves against the risk of a weakening dollar, the report said."
If that is the case, you can also own HNZ as a hedge because as you saw from the last quarter, their profit dropped 10% on strong dollar.
"Heinz 4th quarter profit drops 10 percent on strong dollar, lower restaurant sales"

H.J. Heinz: Almost Ready to Supersize My Position

Larry, no doubt about HNZ being a defensive position. My goal, however, is never to chase after any stock but to acquire them when no one else is really looking. Sure profit can drop, but take a conservative earning estimate of $2.80 (FY 2011) compare that to $2.60 (FY 2010), you'll get 7.7% rise in earning. Remember this is low estimate. This is a simple food company so I can rely on the estimate.

If you want excitement, all you have do is some call, collect cash dividend along with call premium!
Thanks for the comment Larry.

What's Behind This Bear Market Rally

mikesa69

I do have position in MO, VIVO, HNZ, and CSL. I didn't mention any stock about this rally and thus "no position"
It is a basic article, no argument.
Here is something to consider about the rally, watch the volume. When volume dried up (dull market) the buying is likely over. This rally probably take Dow to 10k that is my projection, but I'll call it bear market rally. It'll turn down and trade sides way much like 70's for a long time. Take a look at 42-49, it could look something like that.
Don't ask me why, because I don't know why.

Thanks for the comment.

On May 19 11:53 AM mikesa69 wrote:

> Interesting musings from a person with "no positions". Very basic
> article indeed, with no real argument being advanced; only rudimentary
> questions. The responses here show more wisdom than the author does.

Meridian Bioscience: Poised to Move Up

Pappa,

Thanks for catching my mistake. I forget to mentioned the 52wk high of $3.89 was in 1999.
See this post for revision.
artiinvest.blogspot.co...

Thanks again.

On Apr 22 10:17 AM pappa wrote:

> -----"If you purchased the stock at 52wk high of $3.89 (price adjusted
> for split) and sold it at the low of $17.10 in 2009, you would land
> a crazy 340% return. The dividend went from $0.09 to $0.68, a whopping
> 665% rise!"
>
> Since when is $3.89 highger than $17.10??

Meridian Bioscience: Poised to Move Up

Jolly, indeed VIVO took a dive today. The stock is trading in a bearish territory (below 200day MA and 50day MA) so sure it probably will take a hit if it guide down the earning. Here's some highlight:
Revenue fell 8%
Op. Income up 2%
Net Earning fell 1%
Diluted Earning is flat!
Already this provide me with some light on how good the management is. If top line fell 8% but net fell on 1%, that is good news to me as a share holder.
What is most important has to do with Dividend.
"This is an annual indicated cash dividend rate of $0.68 per share, representing a 21% increase over the fiscal 2008 rate of $0.56 per share."
Last I check, no one I got got a 21% raise in their paycheck.
The bad side, they guided down to $0.77 from $0.81, a drop of 5%.

My model shows a yield of 6% as a bottom which takes the stock to $10-$11 range.

I'm beginning my accumulation.

Just How Correlated Are Oil and Equities?

Doesn't the S&P now consists of many energy firms. I know the Circuit City was cut out of it and replaced by some energy company. If this is the case, it wouldn't be statistically fair. Why don't you pick a broad range of company i.e. Starbucks, Intel, Walmart, etc. and see what happen?

Notes from My Conversation with Cal-Maine CFO Tim Dawson

Great information. I am approaching and becoming more cautious as stock approach $50. I do believe this stock deserve a P/E of much higher than 6 or 7, but historical profit level is concerning. The fact that he is looking to acquire more company pose another concern for me.