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Ashleigh Rogers

 
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  • NeuStar Is Still A Controversial Name But Clarity Is Coming Eventually [View article]
    Update: NSR reached out to me through SA and asked me to update the article to more explicitly state that the $650M number is a year-end expected figure outside of the NPAC contract. I have done this. However, after re-reviewing the numbers and taking into account my revised view of management, I am no longer convinced NSR is a good investment. I am not longer long the stock, and I think investors should be very cautious and consider selling their own positions. I do not plan to cover NSR again in the future.
    Aug 11 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Springleaf Holdings Is A Big Winner In A Post-Crisis Financial World [View article]
    For all who have been watching this story, LEAF has had a great few days thanks to a great earnings report. I will be writing a follow-up article in the next few weeks on the stock, so stay tuned.
    Aug 9 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aon's Recession Era Acquisition Spree Has Not Helped Profits Enough [View article]
    Generally, I would be advocating a hold at today's prices. The final paragraph just makes clear why. Thanks for reading.
    Aug 2 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Steady-On At Top-Notch Underwriter Chubb [View article]
    Under $86 I'd be long. Between $86 and $90, hold, and over $90, sell (I never advocate short positions - I see them as too risky in exuberant markets).
    Aug 2 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NeuStar Now Looks Cheap - Investors Willing To Take A Risk Should Load Up Now [View article]
    No IR did not say that. They emailed me regarding my last article. Read that one if you would like more details, but I haven't talk to them since January. The CC transcript says that minimal levels of non-NPAC revenue are derived from NPAC activity. I will discuss further in a few months when I next write about the stock.
    May 8 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expansion Prospects At WellCare Health Plans Make It A Good Investment [View article]
    I still don't have an opinion on short-term price moves. I think the stock is bouncing around as stocks do, but longer-term I continue to like WCG.
    Apr 30 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KKR & Co.: Looks Can Be Deceiving [View article]
    There is nothing dishonest about managers being paid their marginal product of labor such that stock returns are simply equal to the market average over time.
    Apr 23 10:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KKR & Co.: Looks Can Be Deceiving [View article]
    No. APO and CG are the exceptions here. APO in particular still has fundamental factors that should mitigate any cyclicality in earnings to a greater degree than in other stocks like BX and KKR.
    Apr 23 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KKR & Co.: Looks Can Be Deceiving [View article]
    $20 would be a good price target for KKR from my point of view. I like CG better as they have more irons in the fire which should help balance the firm out as the economic cycle matures over the next few years. I try to balance time it takes to writie articles with people's willingness to read them. There is some point of diminishing marginal returns after which more information is too much. Hopefully my articles are just a starting point and one opinion among many that any investor considers on a given stock.
    Apr 22 10:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KKR & Co.: Looks Can Be Deceiving [View article]
    Perhaps. On the other hand, if they are smart enough to make piles of money doing deals, presumably they are smart enough to keep most of the money rather than passing it on to shareholders.
    Apr 22 10:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KKR & Co.: Looks Can Be Deceiving [View article]
    I'm a long-term investor so I have very little interest in what happens today, next week, or next month. Over the next 12-24 months, I believe that most of the PE group, KKR included, will underperform other more attractive market segments. As I say repeatedly in my article, I'm not bearish on KKR, I just don't think it's a good investment right now. Thanks for reading.
    Apr 22 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JGWPT Holdings Will Test Investors' Stomachs But Should Ultimately Be A Good Investment [View article]
    I discussed the bankruptcy and why it is unlikely to happen again in my first article on the stock. In brief, the past bankruptcy was really a credit crunch result rather than an issue indicative of a fundamental business weakness. See my first article for more details.
    Apr 21 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NeuStar Now Looks Cheap - Investors Willing To Take A Risk Should Load Up Now [View article]
    That's not the title of my January article. After discussion NSR's IR dept to help me understand the situation, I changed the article's title to: "NeuStar: Number Portability Contract Win Looks Less Likely, Stock Will Crater, But A Long-Term Opportunity May Be Coming".

    Please feel free to subscribe to Pro and read my other updates to that article.
    Apr 21 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NeuStar Now Looks Cheap - Investors Willing To Take A Risk Should Load Up Now [View article]
    The company will earn EPS each year for the next three years, so discounting is unnecessary, or put differently, I would expect NSR to earn more than $5 over the next 3 years, so the discounted figure would have to reflect that. You imply that the near term earnings should be left out of the stock price calculation which is obviously ludicrous. I'm also not sure 3 years is the correct figure, but so be it.

    My article was actually submitted 1/30, but it took until 1/31 for the article to get published. Similarly, when I wrote this one, the stock was trading closer to 28. Quibble with percentages if you'd like though.

    I wouldn't say I was slapped on the wrist (as that implies a mild penalty for wrong doing) instead I would say that NSR's IR dept helped me to better understand their situation and I updated my article accordingly.
    Apr 21 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JGWPT Holdings Will Test Investors' Stomachs But Should Ultimately Be A Good Investment [View article]
    I don't know the judge and lawyer you are talking about, but in cities as big as NYC and Chicago there are certainly far more than one judge and one lawyer, so I'm not particularly concerned about single individuals.
    Apr 21 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
109 Comments
60 Likes