"Are you deliberately ignoring the positives for the future here? License wins are compounding. Multiple core usage is growing. Revenues from embedded applications now exceed those of mobile and the internet of things is happening. Market share of the smart TV market is 45%, Networking market is 35%, microcontrollers is 18% and growing very fast. Source is ARM annual report."
Most businesses typically have positives, Robert, and most typically have some sort of growth drivers. The problem is squarely in how much people are paying for ARM's growth.
Why isn't TSMC - the foundry where all of these ARM chips will be built - priced at 80x earnings? ARM and TSMC growth rates are essentially linked, but TSMC's revenue/EBIT per unit far exceeds ARM's.
It's all in the valuation, and this one is simply priced far, far too high.
Sell ARM As CEO's Departure Signals The Top [View article]
"You are so blatantly biased against ARMH and pro-Intel that it is sickening. You've shorted the former and you are long on the latter so you are trying to use your paltry influence and even more limited debating skills to sway opinion for your personal benefit. "
If you think that I have any delusions of grandeur when it comes to my ability to "influence" multi-billion dollar stocks, then you are sorely mistaken. I gave a logical case for why I believe things will play out as described. I could be wrong, but everyone's entitled to have their own view of things.
No stock is a permanent buy or sell. At some point, I could turn bullish on ARM if it represents a compelling enough value, or bearish on Intel if it gets too overpriced. Right now, I see limited upside for ARM but a lot of potential downside; I see the reverse for Intel. So I act on it accordingly instead of trying to make calls that I don't believe strongly enough in to act on.
"It is to be hoped that, if there is anyone in charge, at Seeking Alpha who has scruples, they will pull the plug on you and not publish anymore of your self-serving articles. "
Luckily for me, the people making the editorial decisions are a lot less emotional than you are.
Why Shorting Stocks Is The Worst Investment Strategy Ever [View article]
"Looks like you are already a perfect investor. Good for you. Losses, whether short or long, are NECESSARY in the begining to become a complete investor. Ideally, you want the losses to happen EARLY in one's career so that one is not permanently disabled by the loss financially or emotionally. "
What I mean to say is that you should be well hedged and/or have an exit strategy. There is no excuse to hang on to a stock and watch it get cut in half without ANY hedging strategy.
Why Shorting Stocks Is The Worst Investment Strategy Ever [View article]
"No I'm sorry. Thats a pretty naive statement. The desire of a short seller is for the price of the company to drop...the lower the better. Now, what could be better for a short seller than for a company's price to go to zero? If the company's price goes to zero, what does that imply?.....The company goes bankrupt, which means the loss of jobs"
It's not "desire" - it's calculated expectation. It's not the short sellers' fault that a company goes to zero - it's management's.
Google Finally Writes Nvidia's Euology With Nexus Snub [View article]
You don't need to actively trade. If you think Nvidia's business is truly in such a decline, then you should just buy some 2-year-out puts and call it a day, no? Or just short and hold until the inevitable bankruptcy announcement ;)
The problem I have here I guess is that you seem to be so strongly bearish on the stock. If you article had been a little more even handed and your ultimate stance was neutral to bearish, then I would completely understand. But you are very clearly saying to sell or short the stock...which is a very serious recommendation.
Why Shorting Stocks Is The Worst Investment Strategy Ever [View article]
"the natural tendency of the market is to rise over time. This will often push up even junk stocks"
That's why you need to have an airtight, probably catalyst driven, thesis.
"depending on how you short, the losses can be substantial"
If you suffer substantial losses either long or short, you have no business managing your own money.
"your desire is for a company to do poorly. Behind every company are employees who have families."
Sorry, but the wants of short sellers don't affect these families. You short a stock because you see evidence that the company will not perform as well as the market currently expects, not because you just hope the company will do badly.
Why Shorting Stocks Is The Worst Investment Strategy Ever [View article]
Uh, no. You short individual securities when you see a catalyst to undo a gross mis-pricing in the market. You need to know what you're doing, but it's folly to only try to make money on the way up.
The average "home gamer" shouldn't short, but I sure as hell will.
We'll see who's right, but if you're referring to the ARMy, then unless people stop using Windows in low end desktops, then that prognostication is likely to prove false.
Intel's Spending Spree Explained [View article]
Could you elaborate? Intel's insider sales are mild compared to other large cap tech stocks.
Sell ARM As CEO's Departure Signals The Top [View article]
Why ARM Will Keep Winning [View article]
Most businesses typically have positives, Robert, and most typically have some sort of growth drivers. The problem is squarely in how much people are paying for ARM's growth.
Why isn't TSMC - the foundry where all of these ARM chips will be built - priced at 80x earnings? ARM and TSMC growth rates are essentially linked, but TSMC's revenue/EBIT per unit far exceeds ARM's.
It's all in the valuation, and this one is simply priced far, far too high.
Sell ARM As CEO's Departure Signals The Top [View article]
Sell ARM As CEO's Departure Signals The Top [View article]
If you think that I have any delusions of grandeur when it comes to my ability to "influence" multi-billion dollar stocks, then you are sorely mistaken. I gave a logical case for why I believe things will play out as described. I could be wrong, but everyone's entitled to have their own view of things.
No stock is a permanent buy or sell. At some point, I could turn bullish on ARM if it represents a compelling enough value, or bearish on Intel if it gets too overpriced. Right now, I see limited upside for ARM but a lot of potential downside; I see the reverse for Intel. So I act on it accordingly instead of trying to make calls that I don't believe strongly enough in to act on.
"It is to be hoped that, if there is anyone in charge, at Seeking Alpha who has scruples, they will pull the plug on you and not publish anymore of your self-serving articles. "
Luckily for me, the people making the editorial decisions are a lot less emotional than you are.
Why Shorting Stocks Is The Worst Investment Strategy Ever [View article]
What I mean to say is that you should be well hedged and/or have an exit strategy. There is no excuse to hang on to a stock and watch it get cut in half without ANY hedging strategy.
Why Shorting Stocks Is The Worst Investment Strategy Ever [View article]
It's not "desire" - it's calculated expectation. It's not the short sellers' fault that a company goes to zero - it's management's.
Google Finally Writes Nvidia's Euology With Nexus Snub [View article]
The problem I have here I guess is that you seem to be so strongly bearish on the stock. If you article had been a little more even handed and your ultimate stance was neutral to bearish, then I would completely understand. But you are very clearly saying to sell or short the stock...which is a very serious recommendation.
Anyway, time will tell :)
Google Finally Writes Nvidia's Euology With Nexus Snub [View article]
Why Shorting Stocks Is The Worst Investment Strategy Ever [View article]
That's why you need to have an airtight, probably catalyst driven, thesis.
"depending on how you short, the losses can be substantial"
If you suffer substantial losses either long or short, you have no business managing your own money.
"your desire is for a company to do poorly. Behind every company are employees who have families."
Sorry, but the wants of short sellers don't affect these families. You short a stock because you see evidence that the company will not perform as well as the market currently expects, not because you just hope the company will do badly.
Lackluster Haswell Muddies Intel's Future [View article]
Sell ARM As CEO's Departure Signals The Top [View article]
By all means, bet against me and buy the stock - this article was merely one man's case for why the top is likely in for a while.
Why Shorting Stocks Is The Worst Investment Strategy Ever [View article]
The average "home gamer" shouldn't short, but I sure as hell will.
Lackluster Haswell Muddies Intel's Future [View article]
We'll see who's right, but if you're referring to the ARMy, then unless people stop using Windows in low end desktops, then that prognostication is likely to prove false.
Sell ARM As CEO's Departure Signals The Top [View article]