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Ashraf Eassa

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  • Harvard Bioscience Spin-Off Likely To Drive 50% Near-Term And 100%+ Long-Term Upside [View article]
    Neat idea, and great writeup. Thanks!
    Jul 18 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Panic [View article]

    2012 was down 1% from 2011, and 2013 will be flat to 2012. The revenue story isn't a great growth one, but it's not yet ready for doom and gloom.

    Intel needs to expand into these new markets (not just phones, but everything), and it is showing every sign in the world of being ready to be there at the end of the year and throughout 2014.

    If you believe that this will happen, this is a great time to go long. If not, then it is time to sell or maybe even short.
    Jul 18 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Panic [View article]

    Where do you get that? They are reducing Capex...this is equipment that they buy...R&D has actually been going up for quite some time, and they even hired 1K employees in the quarter.

    R&D is at an all time high, which is why the net income line is so down.
    Jul 18 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Panic [View article]

    Jury's still out on whether I turn out to be wrong on Intel. Short term, maybe wrong, but the long term game is still...just that. A long term game.

    I like the new CEO, I like the product pipeline, and that means the story still has to play out. If by the end of 2014, Intel still isn't a major player in both tabs and phones, then I am dead wrong, and at worst the stock will have been dead money to slightly down. If I am right, there is a lot of upside.

    This is what a good long looks like...well hated name that is in the midst of a turnaround that is well within the company's efforts to succeed. Dividend is safe, and new CEO seems to be on the ball.
    Jul 18 11:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Panic [View article]

    We are still two earnings reports away before your January 2014 calls expire, and you've got the analyst day as well. Look at the price action...Intel guides down the year (albeit 1-3% growth to 0% isn't a huge miss) and the stock is down what? 3.5%?

    TSMC on the other hand goes and blows out the quarter and it's down 8% today.

    It is very clear that a lot of bad news was baked into Intel, and I think that as long as BK shows signs of execution and acceleration, Intel will be significantly higher before the year ends. Will that mean the $40 calls will expire in the good, I'm not sure, but if you can make some decent money off the calls when the stock rebounds, then I'd take advantage.
    Jul 18 11:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia Should Do Well This Quarter [View article]
    From what I hear, Intel tried on multiple occasions.
    Jul 18 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Panic [View article]
    " I don't see how and I see no evidence in any of your articles that you see how either."

    I've written several articles addressing the subject in detail. Just because you did not read them, doesn't mean I haven't written about it, and certainly doesn't imply blindness on my part.
    Jul 18 04:39 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Panic [View article]
    I don't make 100% perfect calls - anybody who claims to is a liar. But I just saw no reason for your rude comment.
    Jul 18 04:28 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Panic [View article]
    Yeah, tell that to the people who bought Spreadtrum on my recommendation at $19, Atmel at $4.50, Lattice Semi at $3.50, Nvidia at $11/12, GSI Tech at $6, AMD at $2.60...

    Yep, no monetary gain at all.
    Jul 18 03:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Responding To Piper Jaffray's Downgrade [View article]
    "why didn't you warn us about a possible earnings like this?"

    The longer term story is still very much intact here, and I think there's not a whole lot of downside here despite the headline weakness...the weak PC numbers were likely mostly baked into the stock. Right now you've got a very uncertain PC end market, and management is keeping expectations on the low side. Data-center group is still tracking as expected, tablet momentum continues to grow (company mentioned 4x increase in tablet volumes from Q1 to Q3), and I think in 2014 you'll see phones do pretty well, too.

    "Yes, you said later in the year these new chips would strongly challenge the competition and leave TSM's inability to make both enough smaller chips and doesn't have the ability to make the 18 and 16 nm that INTC does"

    That's absolutely true, and I don't back off from that stance. Intel will be building its latest "Broadwell" 14nm FinFET chips in Q4, which will be just about when TSMC will be building its first 20nm planar chips (that's a 2x generation lead for Intel)

    "I respectfully think you had/have the responsibility to let your followers know that they could be wiped out financially in the interim."

    I'm not sure that a 3-4% decline in the AH session quite qualifies as a wipeout, and I would want to wait to see how the shares react in the 7/18 session. The stock will probably decline, but I'm not convinced that it'll be too drastic given all of the pessimism around the stock to begin with. My big fear is that the stock will stay dead money for another six months.

    Basically, the worst part of the earnings report is that the company lowered expectations from 1-3% revenue growth, to 0% revenue growth. The analysts had this pegged at 0.3% revenue growth (essentially flat), so the risk really was to the upside. Intel is now in-line with expectations, and that's not usually something that wipes out shareholders :)

    Oh, and another bright spot is that Intel is cutting CapEx spending, which is something that makes the analysts very happy (they complained a lot about Capex seeming too high). This could also drive improved sentiment/limit the near term downside.
    Jul 18 03:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And AnTuTu: Mea Culpa [View article]
    "Cost-per-transistor is no longer expected to decrease at new nodes."

    Intel expects cost per transistor to decrease at new nodes.
    Jul 18 02:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Panic [View article]

    Don't blame you. Wall Street is about results, and Intel has not yet delivered them.
    Jul 18 02:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Panic [View article]

    Appreciate the kind words, as always. Thanks for reading and commenting!
    Jul 18 02:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Panic [View article]
    I liked Spreadtrum, but that got bought out! I like Qualcomm and I think Nvidia should do well too. Have a lot of others, too...just flip through my articles :)
    Jul 18 01:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Panic [View article]

    You're welcome - always glad to answer your questions and appreciate your posts.

    >>1. You were pretty high on Haswell and now no one is giving it any props or upside. What is the issue there?

    The PC OEMs are just uncertain, and as a result are keeping inventories lean. Also, Haswell has only just begun to trickle out into notebook designs, so it is *far* too early to tell how it is doing or if it will help to reinvigorate the PC market at all.

    >>I imagine a divvy cut or freeze would take another 5 -10 point bite out of INTC. Any thoughts on what is going on there? They are weeks behind last quarters announcement date.

    I seriously, seriously doubt there will be dividend cut/freeze. Intel just cut capex significantly, and it still generates tons of free cash flow. The dividend is not in danger as far as I can tell. Q1 was the bottom for sales/margins, and things only get better from here. I expect a dividend raise, even if it is a token one.
    Jul 18 01:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment