Seeking Alpha

Ashraf Eassa

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Ashraf Eassa's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • AMD's Conservative Guidance [View article]
    Tri Duong

    "They're actually profitable. "

    Only on a non-GAAP basis. FCF and GAAP net income are still in the red.
    Jul 25 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Conservative Guidance [View article]
    TechResearch

    "Don't give me that crap. People who invested in AMD in 2003 and got out by mid-2006 made enormous returns."

    Swing trading vehicle. Thanks for proving my point :-)

    Long term investments that have made huge gains and sustained them include high quality firms like INTC (up 27795% since IPO), MSFT) (up 44031% since IPO), and QCOM (up 13437% since IPO).
    Jul 25 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Conservative Guidance [View article]
    Tri Duong

    "As a tech analyst, you should know that there's a huge difference between AMD selling their console APUs and when those turn into consoles on store shelves."

    Yes. However, last year, AMD actually saw a sequential increase in console APU shipments during Q4 relative to Q3, but this year Q3 is the peak. The investment community had expected this to play out again (and it was part of the sell-side estimates), but it didn't. Estimates lowered, stock takes a hit.

    "I really don't understand how people can keep saying AMD is going nowhere when they clearly show significant improvement in nearly every aspect of their business. "

    AMD's semi-custom business is doing well, but its PC business is quite literally going down in flames. 20% year over year decline in sales (and >20% decline in units) when its primary competitor is showing high single digit year over year gains is very worrisome for the company's core business.
    Jul 25 10:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Conservative Guidance [View article]
    Sean Chandler

    "AMD has a lot of work to do in both node shrinks and core updates"

    And it has a mere fraction of Intel's budget with which to do it. The reason AMD is so "cheap" (I don't know by what metrics AMD is cheap other than the fact that the price per share is low, but I digress) is that AMD really does face an uphill battle in fighting richer, more powerful companies.

    But of course, differences in opinion are what make a market. Best of luck to you. I look forward to seeing your thoughts on AMD as they evolve over time :-)
    Jul 25 12:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Conservative Guidance [View article]
    "AMD is not for short time investor!"

    How have long-term investors fared in AMD?

    Look at the stock price over 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, etc. and you'll see a tale of massive underperformance.

    AMD is a swing trading vehicle, not an investment, IMO.
    Jul 25 12:42 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Conservative Guidance [View article]
    @ Fiberton

    Everybody makes bad calls, and I have certainly made my fair share of them. The important thing is to be able to learn from those mistakes and be able to apply the lessons learned to become a more successful investor in the future.

    Love it or hate it, you can learn a LOT from following AMD.
    Jul 24 04:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Conservative Guidance [View article]
    Fiberton

    AMD stock is not only down due to the GPU glut, but the game console guidance for 3Q being peak rather than a continued ramp into 4Q surprised people.
    Jul 24 04:46 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Conservative Guidance [View article]
    I do not think AMD's guidance was conservative in the sense that they are deliberately setting the bar low.

    AMD knew full well what sell-side estimates were, and they are not in the market to buy back stock, so the only "benefit" that they'd get from setting the bar far too low is a lot of unhappy shareholders.
    Jul 24 12:23 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Latent Profitability [View article]
    zisdead

    I think Intel's 14nm node will be extremely impressive. Bill Holt recently went around and did a tour with investors, and one of the things he apparently talked up was an innovative technique called "Reverse Optical Lithography" used to overcome traditional lithography limits for the transistor features.

    While Intel probably will have a minimum metal pitch of 56-58 nanometers (not quite "10nm" in foundry terms, but denser than the 20nm/16nm BEOL processes which use a 64nm M1 pitch), I expect Intel will have ~10nm foundry equivalent *gate* pitch, a metric where Intel has traditionally led.

    As always, time will tell.
    Jul 24 11:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Latent Profitability [View article]
    TechResearch

    I would like to add the following. In terms of contacted gate pitch, Intel's 22-nanometer certainly had an edge over TSMC/Samsung 28nm. I believe Intel's CGP was 90nm, while Samsung's 28nm and TSMC's 28nm were ~120nm.

    Metal pitch was closer, with Intel's 22nm M1 coming in at 90nm and M2-M6 (should the designer choose to use that many) at 80nm. This is tighter than what the foundries had at 28nm, but it's not as big a gap.

    Intel's 22nm density at the process level is theoretically a fair bit higher than what TSMC 28nm/Samsung 28nm offered, but of course, density is dependent on a lot more than your process.
    Jul 24 11:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Latent Profitability [View article]
    TechResearch

    TSMC detailed 16 FinFET @ IEDM in 2013 already, I believe.
    Jul 24 09:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Latent Profitability [View article]
    TechResearch

    "so just wait for the products to speak."

    Intel will be detailing its 14-nanometer process at IDF 2014. It will not be long now before we know exactly how Intel compares with TSMC and Samsung.
    Jul 24 09:24 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook beats by $0.10, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Net income more than doubled Y/Y, which should drive down P/E.
    Jul 23 07:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook beats by $0.10, beats on revenue [View news story]
    It's a lot cheaper after this quarter, FYI.
    Jul 23 05:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Latent Profitability [View article]
    You're welcome, Cincinnatus.
    Jul 23 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
8,871 Comments
13,900 Likes