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Ashraf Eassa  

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  • Intel: Dominant And Undervalued [View article]
    ta152h

    The absolute lowest bin 22nm Haswell ULT (2+2 config) weighs in at a die size of 130mm^2. The PCH that is also on-package is another 60-70mm^2. Bay Trail-M/D is about 100mm^2.

    Not only does the Bay Trail come with significantly less silicon, but it doesn't incur the more sophisticated packaging two dice on a single package (i.e. cheaper package).

    I would also guess that at a system level, Bay Trail-M/D require a cheaper bill of materials than the Haswell Celerons/Pentiums.

    --AE
    Jan 7, 2015. 08:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Dominant And Undervalued [View article]
    ta152h

    "The margins are based on what? Your opinion? Where is that coming from?"

    Intel has stated such at its investor days. Now, if you think Intel is lying then you should let the SEC know, as making false and/or misleading statements to investors is a serious offense.

    "If CPU volumes are not the problem, but chipsets, where do you think they lost share? Think hard now. Really try. Hmmmm, Jaguar/Puma don't ship with chipsets, Kaveri does. Hmmmm, got it now?"

    Chipset isn't always referring to "PCH." Qualcomm talks about MSM chipsets, but in this case Qualcomm is talking about Snapdragon as well as Gobi modems.

    --AE
    Jan 6, 2015. 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Corp. Has Risen 78% In The Last 1.5 Years: Watch It Keep Going Or Buy It [View article]
    "INTC is a fine company with a huge run-up in the past year like MSFT without demonstrating any evidence they can continue to grow - ever."

    Intel is going to see revenue up this year (from $52.7B to about $55.8B) and guided to revenues of >$58B for next year.

    --AE
    Dec 29, 2014. 08:36 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Short Interest Plunges Again [View article]
    Solid article!

    --AE
    Dec 29, 2014. 01:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Dominant And Undervalued [View article]
    ta152h

    ""This garbage has to be wrapped in money to get people to use them, or sold so cheaply it's not clear how Intel can ever make money off of them. ""

    Uh...Intel's gross margins on these parts are at or above where equivalent Core-based Celeron/Pentium chips' margins are.

    I'm not sure why you want to deny the reality that Bay Trail-M/D have been stellar products for Intel in terms of driving share gains, as well as revenue/gross profit dollar growth.

    "Has Intel hit a wall? 14nm? Very delayed, and still has poor yields."

    Yields are good enough to go into high volume manufacturing on the parts and still be able to command solid margins on the products. Intel's 14nm also has much better electrical characteristics, tighter minimum metal pitches, and gate pitches than any of the 14/16nm processes out there.

    Samsung and TSMC have yet to hit acceptable yields for any real manufacturing ramp on their "14nm" and "16nm" processes.

    Keep spinning this "Intel is doomed" scenario all you'd like, but this is the point where I take the opportunity to point to the scoreboard. Intel has been an amazing performer YTD.

    --AE
    Dec 27, 2014. 07:48 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Yet More Misleading Amazon.com Articles [View article]
    Great article, Paulo.

    --AE
    Dec 26, 2014. 04:20 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Dominant And Undervalued [View article]
    ephud

    Well said.

    --AE
    Dec 26, 2014. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Dominant And Undervalued [View article]
    ephud

    Intel actually committed to Q4 2015 production start on 10nm at the 2013 investor meeting but then refused to publicly commit to anything at the 2014 analyst meeting, claiming that they "gave too much too early" on 14nm.

    Hmm...

    --AE
    Dec 26, 2014. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Dominant And Undervalued [View article]
    ephud

    They could go into production on lead product (Cannonlake) in Q2 2016 and that'd be the 2-yr offset.

    --AE
    Dec 26, 2014. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Dominant And Undervalued [View article]
    ktkt86

    "Take a look at the monthly chart of AMD stock. The market does not agree with your assessment of AMD's prospects."

    I remember some of the AMD bulls were claiming that AMD would grow in 2014 and Intel would see a revenue decline. They were betting on a relatively low quality business with no real competitive advantage getting a leg up on a high quality, well-capitalized business.

    I've made this mistake in the past, and it is costly.

    The lesson here for long-term investors is simple: buy quality businesses when they're cheap (INTC at $21ish), not garbage ones because the price per share is low. Use sane leverage (i.e. options) to supercharge your returns, if that's your thing.

    AMD might be a good long trade right now for people interested in flipping the stock for a quick profit, but as a business it's still a train-wreck and I'm expecting things to get much worse next year as AMD continues to lose share to Intel in PCs, and the "dense server" story remains nothing but fantasy.

    --AE
    Dec 26, 2014. 01:07 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Dominant And Undervalued [View article]
    Bruce

    10nm mobile chips in 2016? No way...not unless you're talking Core M or something.

    --AE
    Dec 25, 2014. 08:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Dominant And Undervalued [View article]
    ta152h

    How many times has it been explained to you that Bay Trail-M/D are not part of the "contra-revenue" program and have been winning PC designs on their own merits?

    83% of Intel's PC mix and well over 20% of their entire notebook mix is now using this "failed" Bay Trail architecture and Intel's profits in the PC Client Group are staggering. If they were wrapping each BYT-M/D in a $20 bill, don't you think op margins for PCCG would be far lower than the 40%+ that it sits at now?

    --AE
    Dec 25, 2014. 07:09 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Uber's Valuation And The Laws Uber Breaks [View article]
    Nice article, Paulo!

    --AE
    Dec 24, 2014. 06:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More About The Intel Investor Meeting [View article]
    Bruce

    Intel uses non-Intel controllers in many of its consumer SSDS. Obviously if Intel can design a best in class controller, then that helps, but Marvell, LSI, etc. do a really good job with their designs. I don't think a custom controller, outside of perhaps the datacenter/enterprise space, is a game changer.

    --AE
    Dec 23, 2014. 04:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More About The Intel Investor Meeting [View article]
    Bruce

    "Even without the SSD in a package with an Intel processor, Intel has the CONTROLLER that makes the combination of SSD and Intel processor much more efficient."

    You can buy off-the-shelf SSD controllers from Marvell, LSI/Avago, etc. and they're quite good. Samsung makes its own, too. Not a big deal for a company like Intel.

    --AE
    Dec 22, 2014. 10:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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