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  • Ashraf Eassa
    $NVDA expects to be supply constrained as of its latest 10-CTL in Q3. Unsure why its stock is selling off along w/ $INTC, $HPQ, $DELL.
    10/15/12
    Reply (16)
    • Austin Craig: supply constrained in what? ram? gpus?
      10/15/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: GPUs...can't get enough 28nm wafers.
      10/15/12
    • Whitehawk: Due to TSMC yield? I've read it is lower than expected and TSMC raised prices to cover.
      10/15/12
    • Sal Marvasti: part of AMDs problem was rising unit costs, falling selling prices. I wont touch anything in PCRFY.OB sector until after Intel, and Nvidia report.
      10/15/12
    • Sal Marvasti: hence margin drop to well below semiconductor average of 50%
      10/15/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: The point is: Nvidia sells everything that they can, so the probability of a negative, demand-driven pre-announcement is low.
      10/15/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: After earnings last CTL, everyone was happy to pay $15+ for the stock. Now, on no news, the stock is at $12.58. I see a buying opp here.
      10/15/12
    • Sal Marvasti: Wait till its $10 :) Why buy before the lowest low?
      10/15/12
    • Sal Marvasti: Based on trajectory and bad news, all pc semiconductors are expected to break multi-year lows before rebound.
      10/15/12
    • Sal Marvasti: Not sure why you don't see the consumer graphics drop as a threat.
      10/15/12
    • Sal Marvasti: Also your theory of market gain for Nvidia and Intel, do not hold up. I did a calculation and AMD unit sales in terms of number is flat.
      10/15/12
    • Sal Marvasti: Their ASP is down.
      10/15/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: I don't have a crystal ball. I don't know where the "low" is. I can only try to buy at what I believe are undervalued levels.
      10/15/12
    • Sal Marvasti: fair point
      10/15/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: Oh, look. $NVDA rallying. I wish I had added more at $12.56. Cost basis of ~$13.30 is comfortable, though.
      10/15/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: But like I said - can't call tops and bottoms. You can only look for reasonable entry points.
      10/15/12