• Ashraf Eassa
    If $AAPL drops under $600, I will load up the truck. C'mon sell-side, raise expectations to be unreasonable!
    10/22/12
    Reply (51)
    • Hillbilly Stock Star: Still think on a go forward cash flow basis very, very undervalued!
      10/22/12
    • Hillbilly Stock Star: Prolly performance chase to year end imo!
      10/22/12
    • hotnutsjesus: I honestly think you missed your opportunity Ashraf. I was a little early to buy the dip, but I still have good seats to the rebound.
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: seems like a good buy, Ashraf, did I not tell you about Nvidia. at least I am happy I warned you when you were loading at 12.62....
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: Its still ok long term, but I am waiting for it to bottom after results, which I cannot see being but lower than expectations
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: I've made so much money swing trading NVDA over the last year that I really don't mind holding a bag for a while.
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: Well, you are like me except I pity my investment prowess. I squandered a healthy portfolio gain all on AMD!
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: If it were not for AMD, and INTC and MRVL, I would be up 50% on a largish portfolio. Why squander your years of swing trading?
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: It doesnt sound rational to do so even if I make all my money back in years time. That is one year of zero return.
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: I have liquidated a lot of my winners lately, so I have enough dry power + time on my side to come out a winner.
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: I would be interested to see what you made money on. Did you see my instablog. The things I made good money on I did not write about.
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: FSII made me over a year's worth of returns. I owned it at $3, recommended it on SA at $3.50, it got bought @ $6.20 days later.
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: I also made a good amount of $ selling most of my AMD at $7.50 this year after buying last winter in the $4.50 - $5.00 range
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: Cool but what percentage of your porfolio did you have? My best performance HOIL.L (london) I only had 25% of my money in it.
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: Also made out nicely on JNJ and VZ - bought the former at $61-$62, sold it today for $71. Sold the latter today at $44ish from $37.
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: And then of course, I'd been playing the $NVDA swings all year (long side - I don't like to short).
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: Bought a lot in the $11.90 - $12.50 range, sold it at just under $15 after earnings. Now own 1/4th of my pos at $13.30.
      10/22/12
    • TruffelPig: You should have loaded the truck at $610......
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: My biggest loser this year has been MRVL, and INTC recently swung to a loss (initial purchase @ $19.7ish, avg'd up)
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: AMD this round also has not been good to me - down on my latest purchases at $3.40avg, but smaller than my pos sold earlier this yr.
      10/22/12
    • TruffelPig: Still time to buy AAPL Ashraf. Or even FB.
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: We should not have bet against the hedge funds who had a 20% short. They are laughing to the bank.
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: 20% short on a stock is risky but I guess they had done their research and knew the PCRFY.OB market demand is droping
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: Also down on QCOM...own that at $61ish avg.
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: I just could not see a 8% demand drop this year.
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: @TruffelPig - I'm not sure I'd want to hold AAPL into ER. Expectations too high. Need the weak hands to really shake out.
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: Yes I agree with Ashraf, see my article I only see Apple as a short term investment. Too much competition to hold long term.
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: Also, FB? I would never touch that company. Like, ever.
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: what do you think of UMC? its dropping but I have kept my position since your original article. Should I add and average down?
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: UMC has negative market return while TSMC has positive, so unless UMC is going to be a dog like AMD, its either a steal or a sell.
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: I don't want to give explicit advise on how to manage the position for fear of being wrong, but...
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: should I buy more UMC(down 10%) or diversify and by the more expensive TSMC (up 5% )
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: I do think foundries in general will do well...TSMC, GloFo, UMC, especially as semiconductors in general grow.
      10/22/12
    • TruffelPig: @Ashraf - I made money on FB and will now make money again on it. Long.
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: Truffel you can make money gambling on horses too :)
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: Unless demand drops for smartphones too, then there will be a glut and foundries will suffer.
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: So the question is do you have any data points for foundary demand into 2013?
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: I think the foundries and telcos are the best ways to play the smartphone/mobile demand. They don't care who wins - X86 or ARM.
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: actually they do. If Intel wins, demand for contract foundries will drop. Stuff for an interesting article. Up for doing the research?
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: They are. And look at $TSM this year. Up wildly!
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: TSMC would suffer a lot if intel overtook QCOM, for example.
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: Why is UMC down? I don't underestand. It is smaller and has older tech, but still demand was hot. It builds the OMAP for example.
      10/22/12
    • TruffelPig: @SM Horse are much less predictable. Otherwise I agree ;P
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: Well I thought we are seeking Alpha - investment return :) not gambling return.
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: Salman, I'd love to chat with you in real-time...I will direct message you my gmail -- do you have gtalk?
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: Nope, skype.
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: also oovoo
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: do you have those?
      10/22/12
    • Ashraf Eassa: But on the QCOM/TSMC note, I don't think so. TSM is already facing a shortage, and it will likely gain AAPL as a foundry customer.
      10/22/12
    • Sal Marvasti: SO TSM is a safe bet?, why UMC is dropping?
      10/22/12
    • 1980XLS-2.0: You Tell "em Jim!
      10/23/12