• Ashraf Eassa
    $FB if this fade doesn't tell you that we're near a market top, I don't know what will.
    10/30/13
    Reply (103)
    • biopharma10: fb faded due to company specific news on teenager use decline, so it cannot be the critical factor for market reveral.
      10/30/13
    • Dthampi2009: Although it looks like there will be a big correction in the immediate future.... S&P is just 15* P/E... more upside in the long run
      10/30/13
    • Andrei Volgin: Look at $AMZN, $TSLA or $SCTY AH. They move in step with $FB. Logically, makes no sense. I agree with Ashraf - it is a sign the top is near.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: Just give it some time. Something went wrong with the tape. After hours is low float, making it easy to manipulate.
      10/30/13
    • saguni60: 15% drop after hours is not manipulation. Some big hedge fund giy decided to dump all his shares at 57 like iCahn did with NFLX..
      10/30/13
    • combatcorpsmanVN: "This fade" - tells nothing. AH Call buyers and Call sellers closing short term trades.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: Google barely beat earnings this quarter and jumped 10% the next day. Facebook pulls an olympic jump over earnings and falls? Makes no sense
      10/30/13
    • TruffelPig: Amateur hour........no hedgie can easily dump AH. Liqidity low. Says little here other than that F B seems fairly valued.
      10/30/13
    • Marlov: It's all about expectations Alex. Expectations for google were looowwww. Expecations for facebook were cataclysmic
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: ^Truffel, that's the point. It's not fairly valued.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: They beat estimates Marlov by 30%. Those estimates were higher than the previous quarter on top of that.
      10/30/13
    • Bill Maurer: When they say they are slowing Newsfeed ads and that young teen usage is declining, it's a huge red flag.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: 45 million in volume. This is not low volume after hour trading. We're looking at $2.25 billion in market liquidity. Someone dumped.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: Daily volume is 123 million today. Third of today's volume in after hours, this led to a huge price fall. Someone wants to move the price.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: Bill they're not increasing the number of ads, and will instead generate higher click throughs per ad. Plus, they wan to price it higher.
      10/30/13
    • wheelz23: In addition to what Bill Maurer said, FB said they expect a decline in payments revenue...the word decline in a CC will trigger sell buttons
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: Payment revenue represents a small percentage of total revenues guys. Let's not get too excited.
      10/30/13
    • wheelz23: by the looks of it, you're the one getting excited
      10/30/13
    • Dthampi2009: @Alex - Give it a weeks time...they will buy again. Right now there is lot of volume selling going on...the future looks bright for FB
      10/30/13
    • Bill Maurer: Well his $100 billion revenue article is out. He has to defend his theory.
      10/30/13
    • Bill Maurer: Despite the fact that most of the call seemed negative.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: Wheelz, I am excited. However in the world of momentum this is not normal. It screams manipulation if you know what you're looking for.
      10/30/13
    • Bill Maurer: Payments revs were only about 11%, but when you have "decline" for a 30% plus growth company, it's not good.
      10/30/13
    • Marlov: They beat analyst estimates... seperate/distinct from market expectations. Take a look at the weekly options to learn the difference
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: @Dthampi, no way in heck this is normal. Even Microsoft got a jump in AH and on the following session.
      10/30/13
    • Bill Maurer: If teen interest is waning, the stock will get hit. At some point, too many site changes will chase enough people away.
      10/30/13
    • wheelz23: This isn't manipulation...people saw signs of slowing growth and took profits, it happens every day
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: @Marlov, my expectations were the highest of them all, and they met my expectations. In AH it's coming back up.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: Teen interest has stayed constant according to Facebook. Facebook is the PRIMARY source. No secondary research can refute it (earnings call)
      10/30/13
    • Bill Maurer: Yet it is still down 8 bucks.
      10/30/13
    • wheelz23: this might be hard to believe, but not all stocks go up
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: Give it some time guys. We saw someone take a dump, now we got the bargain hunting hedge funds pushing the stock back up.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: If this was a normal trading session, the whole thing would have been stopped or something. After hours isn't indicative of much.
      10/30/13
    • Marlov: I think you are wrong on the first point and on the second... how does a fade from $57/share to $<50 constitute a come back???
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: @Wheelz, you make it sound like I don't know that. Let's sit back and watch Thursday session.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: @marlov earlier in the session the stock was down 3%. But in a $140B market cap stocks the players at the table are bigger.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: Since there's a lot at stake guys. This is like watching China and the USA negotiate a fair value. Some want out, some want in.
      10/30/13
    • samuel_liu: THANKS Nathan Brooks http://seekingalpha.com/a/126w6
      10/30/13
    • Ashraf Eassa: Hey, Alex...43 Million shares traded in the AH...still want to stick to your guns here?
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: Of course Ashraf. I'm doing research on price action right now.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: So guys, I looked at the data. This is looking like the Netflix drop between April 15, to April 19.Following the earnings, stock jumps 25%.
      10/30/13
    • Bill Maurer: And look what just happened to $NFLX when the CEO said the price action was ridiculous. $80 plus drop.
      10/30/13
    • TruffelPig: I prefer if FB calms down and goes up slowly! I have (incomplete because of short time frame) hedged over the earnings with puts.
      10/30/13
    • TruffelPig: Have 1 $52 put per each 100 shares; bought when FB was at 52. I am very calm ;P. It is an about 1:2 hedge I say.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: Heh Bill that was Carl Icahn exiting out of 5% of all total shares in a single session. Let's watch what happens tomorrow.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: And Bill, Facebook dropped a good 10% before announcing earnings. If anything expectations were already low.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: Because we already had a solid drop, if anything, the positive catalyst will have to reverse sentiment not worsen it. This is common sense.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: I also made money on that Netflix pop and drop. Trading is my forte, and I'm just not convinced that this drop is permanent in the AH.
      10/30/13
    • Nathan Brooks: @Samuel_liu :Your Welcome
      10/30/13
    • wheelz23: if trading is your forte, then i assume you took your profits
      10/30/13
    • Bill Maurer: Expectations were low? The stock was up 85% between earnings reports. They had a lot to prove, and the conference call spooked everyone.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: No, I'm holding. Because it's going to pop tomorrow. Expectations were low, reversion to optimism is more likely. Everyone is jittery.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: You buy a dip, and you sell a high. Stock gets a dip, and dips lower? Hahaha, unlikely. Not on epic earning beats. I'm holding out.
      10/30/13
    • TruffelPig: Why would Icahn sell AH?
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: No Truffel, with Icahn, Netflix opened strong, and it started to crash. Huge swing in price. I made a good buck.
      10/30/13
    • Alex Cho: Again watch the real session. With Netflix it was positive AH, and terrible in the market. This looks terrible in AH, but a buy at market.
      10/30/13
    • Hope128: Not a good sign with teens move on to twitter, myspace and other social network. They believe fb is for uncool people.
      10/30/13
    • TruffelPig: Hahaha, no, but their parents are on FB - like me. My son uses FB though a lot.
      10/30/13
    • samuel_liu: Myspace was already declared uncool on a high schooler's assessment of the site in NPR.org » Teens Create their Own Space Online
      10/30/13
    • samuel_liu: m.npr.org/story/5182960‎ Feb 1, 2006 - The popularity of Myspace.com is driven by teens' easy familiarity with ..... & then it drops, & it
      10/30/13
    • samuel_liu: becomes uncool, or known,& teens often ... HAS IT REINVENTED ITSELF AND BECOME COOL AGAIN-- NOT A USER
      10/30/13
    • emptymirror: I a college student, and NONE of my peers use Google+ or Myspace. A few use Twitter sparingly. We use instagram IN ADDITION TO FB
      10/30/13
    • wheelz23: anyway, good luck tomorrow Alex
      10/30/13
    • leebailey85: short FB, P, WDAY. All bubbles pop eventually
      10/31/13
    • Ocean Man: Alex - how does seeing someone take a dump work into your investment thesis?
      10/31/13
    • Humanbytes: I work in IT for 14 years..people are addicted to FB everywhere i go and literally hate Google Ads. Nobody i asked clicks them...very weird.
      10/31/13
    • emptymirror: Of course it's manipulation. Take Apple and Icahn for example. Apple stock has no future. yet Icahn screams buy cuz he holds it.
      10/31/13
    • emptymirror: Those who make fun of Facebook are just eating sour grapes. They didn't get in on the action and now its too late. I have been long since 22
      10/31/13
    • wheelz23: was it manipulation when the share price doubled in 3 months?
      10/31/13
    • Alex Cho: ^In AH there aren't market makers = no liquidity for big blocks orders. Market manipulation is illegal, so expect SEC investigations.
      10/31/13
    • wheelz23: lol
      10/31/13
    • TruffelPig: FB fade is +4% on incredible volume now from -4%. I guess now we have to buy because we just reversed ;P
      10/31/13
    • emptymirror: @wheelz23 No but losing 18% in after hours trading is manipulation. Look at the LIBOR scandal, Hunt brothers &silver for example ur naive
      10/31/13
    • wheelz23: a price drop during a live CC is not manipulation
      10/31/13
    • wheelz23: ok, if you two are so sure this is manipulation then contact the SEC and let us know what they say
      10/31/13
    • emptymirror: So what? If you have enough money you can move the markets a couple of hedge funds can easily do this
      10/31/13
    • wheelz23: if you don't like the game then play another one
      10/31/13
    • wheelz23: when it goes you're way it's because you're Icahn jr, but when it doesn't it's manipulation...
      10/31/13
    • emptymirror: http://bit.ly/1duj7bH OK this is real life a firm in China sent 26K buy orders before market close causing a massive jump in index
      10/31/13
    • emptymirror: Since the beginning of time men have manipulated markets to make profits
      10/31/13
    • wheelz23: can you please point out where i said manipulation in the markets doesn't exist?
      10/31/13
    • Bleecker Street Research: Obviously wasn't market manipulation. Look at what happened w/ AAPL last week. People get nervous during CC. Reason it's called amateur hour
      10/31/13
    • vandeley: so losing 18% AH is market manipulation, but gaining 15% isn't?
      10/31/13
    • Alex Cho: @Wheelz, I'm sure the SEC is investigating. We'll just sit back and see what happens.
      10/31/13
    • Alex Cho: @Vandeley, at least gaining 15% would make substantially more sense.
      10/31/13
    • TruffelPig: Alex, there was no manipulation - just buying and selling.......
      10/31/13
    • emptymirror: FB earnings are up 60% and it has unlimited growth potential contrast that with stocks like Potbelly doubling on first day of IPO
      10/31/13
    • emptymirror: Also Restoration Hardware which is trading at ridiculous multiples
      10/31/13
    • Alex Cho: Apparently Dan Niles sold his stake in Facebook.
      10/31/13
    • emptymirror: So why isn't Facebook behaving like a normal stock?
      10/31/13
    • emptymirror: by the way it took 3 months to double but only half an hour to lose 18%
      10/31/13
    • emptymirror: So how is that not manipulation?
      10/31/13
    • emptymirror: What are your interests in this matter? Do you work for Twitter's underwriter?
      10/31/13
    • Alex Cho: Dan Niles went from being a Facebook bull 30 days ago, to admitting he sold his position on CNBC.
      10/31/13
    • TruffelPig: ROFL. I am long $FB........are we now being flooded by Yahoo board frequenters?
      10/31/13
    • Alex Cho: @Truffel, you sound awfully excited.
      10/31/13
    • TruffelPig: Alex, my last comment was directed at emptymirror.......
      10/31/13
    • emptymirror: Yeah well I never post online but I couldn't resist. FB is the best company out there so why the **is it being sold off?
      10/31/13
    • TruffelPig: emptymirror - you assume that the market is logical. It isn't. That is how you can make money. If it were logical all would be priced fair.
      10/31/13
    • Alex Cho: @mirror, yesterday Dan Niles exited his position. It had nothing to do with the news. He was going to time his exit anyway.
      10/31/13
    • Alex Cho: @mirror other hedge funds probably took their exit as the price was falling in AH, following earnings.
      10/31/13
    • Alex Cho: @mirror it wasn't the panic of a large group of investors, just a group of small individuals. This is what we call "systematic risk."
      10/31/13
    • wheelz23: lol...you caught me, i am an undercover underwriter!
      10/31/13