Ashraf Laidi

Golds Secular Performance
Valuing Currencies via Gold
Golden Correlations
Dont Forget Falling Gold Production
Gold and Equities: Hard versus Monetary Assets
Gold-to-Equity Ratios
The Role of the Speculators
Gold Is Part of a Larger Story

Chapter 2 Oil Fundamentals in the Currency Market

From a Gold Standard to an Oil Standard (1970s-1980s)
Oil Glut and Price Collapse (1981-1986)
The Super Dollar of (1980-1984) The Worlds Third Oil Shock
World Intervenes against Strong Dollar (1985-1987)
Iraqs Invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War (1990-1991)
The Asian Crisis and OPECs Miscalculation (1997-1998)
Oil Thrives on World Growth, Dot-Com Boom (1999-2000)
Iraq War Fuels Oil Rally, Dollar Flounders, China Takes Over (2002 to Present)

Chapter 3 When the Dollar was King (1999-2001)

The Major Theories
Annual Performance Analysis of Individual Currencies

Chapter 4 The Dollar Bear Rises (2002-2007)

2002: The Beginning of the Dollar Bear Market
2003: Dollar Extends Damage, Commodity Currencies Soar
2004: Global Recovery Boosts Currencies against U.S. Dollar
2005: Commodities Soar alongside Dollar, Carry Trades Emerge
2006: Dollar Vulnerable as Fed Ends Two-Year Tightening
2007: Record Oil Boosts Loonie, Helpless Fed Hits Greenback
Lessons Learned

Chapter 5 Risk Appetite in the Markets

Carry Trades in Foreign Exchange
Using Risk Appetite to Gauge FX Flows
The VIX
Futures Flows
Corporate Bond Spreads
Tying It All Altogether: 1999-2007

Chapter 6 Reading the Fed via Yield Curves, Equities, and Commodities

Yield Curves and the Economy
Types of Yield Curves
Rationale of Inverted Yield Curve Implications
Effectiveness of Yield Curve Signals Implications
Greenspans Conundrum Proved Bernankes Problem
Implications for Growth, Stocks, and Currencies
Tying Interest Rates to the Gold-Oil Ratio

Chapter 7 U.S. Imbalances, FX Reserve Diversification, and the U.S. Dollar

The U.S. Twin Deficits
U.S. Current Account Deficit: Old Problem, New Challenges
Adding the Budget Balance to the Mix
Financing the Deficits: The Path to Unsustainability?
Dissecting U.S.-Bound Foreign Capital Flows
U.S. Stocks and Bonds Vie for Foreign Money
Capital Flows Shift Identities
Foreign Direct Investment and M&As
How Long Will Foreign Capital Be Available on the Cheap?
Dont Ignore U.S. Investors Flows Abroad
Currency Reserve Diversification: OPEC and the Middle East
Further Currency Diversification Is Inevitable
The View Ahead

Chapter 8 Commodities Super Cycles and Currencies

The Current Commodity Cycle versus Previous Cycles
Dissecting Commodity Classes
Commodities and their Currencies
Developing World to Maintain Ripe Outlook for Food and Grains
Energy Efficiency Not Enough to Halt High Oil
Copper and Gold to Shine on Long Term Fundamentals
Commanding Heights or Common Bubbles?

Chapter 9 Selected Topics in Foreign Exchange

Revisiting Yield Curves
Is Dollar Stability a Necessity?
How Far Will Commodities Outstrip Equities?
U.S. Politics and the U.S. Dollar