Asif Suria

Long/short equity, value, event-driven, growth at reasonable price
Asif Suria
Long/short equity, value, event-driven, growth at reasonable price
Contributor since: 2005
Company: Eugene Software Solutions
You are welcome.
You can actually see that in the filing where it states the number of shares owned following the transaction.
Mr. Pickens still has 17.44 million shares remaining, implying he sold 3.9% of his position in this transaction.
There was an academic paper published last year called "Insider Trading Patterns" by David Cicero and Babajide Wintoki that specifically looks at performance of a sequence of insider trades and might be of interest to you.
Do keep in mind that insiders are also often wrong and sometime they use their purchases to "signal" the market.
You can find the paper here:
This was one of the transactions that stood out for me and I wanted to look into it further.
Thank you.
Yes indeed. Thanks for catching that. We'll fix it.
Thank you for your kind words mdpath.
Because these posts are generated weekly and the transaction you mentioned was from two weeks ago.
See here:
Thank you for your hard work on this John. It is interesting to see him pick up CBI and LTM, both of which have been on my watch list.
He was bold enough to capture the large spread on the COV deal.
I was recently called out of my TTWO position and am considering getting back in but it looks like the stock is probably going to tread water for a while until there is more visibility into its next game release cycle.
You are right that he does sell quite frequently to fund his charities.
Thank you for your insight Tom.
Considering these companies are growing the top line rapidly, could the multiple compression be a combination of lower valuation and the increase in sales bringing the multiple down?
This would partially explain why private market multiples have not come down. There is always a huge disconnect between private and public market valuations.
Yes, I agree with you that the sales by Bill Gates are scheduled selling and hence don't provide much of a signal. In face most insider selling does not provide much of a signal unless you start seeing a pattern of cluster selling even as the stock is heading down.
The purchases and sales listed are just the top 5 purchases and sales by dollar amounts and sometimes you have to look through the full list to find the interesting ones.
I haven't followed Microsoft closely enough recently to have much of an informed opinion. They are doing well in the cloud space with Azure, Office continues to do well despite Google docs making gains and the stock is still cheap at 8 time EBITDA with a 3% yield.
The stock has had a nice run over the last two years and despite the recent pull back, I am not particularly excited by the company.
In short, I have followed regional banks and have invested in both Umpqua Bank and First Niagara in the past.
Regarding RF, they are trading at tangible book value and their troubled assets ratio is just marginally above the national median.
Banks will probably do well in a rising interest rate environment if and when we get there.
I picked up the stock after these insider purchases and I need to do some more work on RF to determine if I want to retain it in my portfolio or not.
Thank you for your kind words Stan.
Thank you andre.
Some of the all stock deals are structured in such a way that it is a tax-free transaction but it varies from deal to deal.
I often invest in mergers through an IRA and maybe someone else could comment on their experience with taxes as it related to this strategy.
Yes Stan, we have closed subscriptions to the Insider Trading service pending upgrades. We are in the process of building out a new site and service. The goal is to launch the new site in January 2015 and the new service by Q2 2015. If you are interested, I will send you an email when the site is ready.
You are welcome. I haven't followed PSEC but I do see consistent and often large purchases by insiders of the company.
Thank you. I did not realize the deal descriptions were not getting included when these articles were posted on Seeking Alpha. I'll reach out to the editors to see if they can change the format.
Thank you. If I do find a deal interesting, I will try to write a post about it in the future.
Spreads on deals have narrowed so much in recent years that few interesting opportunities come up. Hence my focus recently has been on insider transactions.
You are right. The deal as we have entered it does undervalue the deal because of the spin-off of certain assets before TRGP acquires ATLS. We did mention this in the post on Oct 20 but I will also make sure we include it in the deal description.
Any idea about the value of these assets that will be spun-off prior to the completion of the deal?
Thank you Stan. I appreciate the kind words. It does take us some time to collect, organize and publish this information every week.
Regarding SWY, I got in a while ago before they spun-off their gift cards business Blackhawk Networks. The spread on the merger did narrow after that spin-off.
The remaining value also includes $3.65 in contingent value rights (CVRs) related to real estate and a Mexican chain. Since CVRs often trade at a discount, I agree with you that the spread has likely peaked.
I am just letting the position run its course in my portfolio.
A good question. Options related purchases are specified as such in the filings and we don't include them.
You are right. This was a mistake that we identified right before publishing last night but it looks like it did not get fixed.
Thanks for letting me know.
TAFE has been buying AGCO shares for some time now and it is not readily evident to me as to why they are doing this. The odd thing is that AGCO also owns a stake in TAFE.
This article from last year has some additional information:
She joined the board in May and those purchases occurred shortly thereafter on June 2nd.
We have seen new directors often buy shares shortly after joining the board and don't believe those types of purchases offer much of a signal.
Quite clearly, in this case, the purchase was not well timed.
I agree. There were very few insider purchases this week that looked interesting but TEP did catch my eye.
Thank you John. I see that you have continued to remain active with the 13F filings. I'll reach out to you directly soon.
You are right. That was a typo and I have submitted a correction to SA. Thank you for mentioning it.
After a multi-year run up, I am not as surprised by the recent drop. Insiders have been consistently selling for years just like insiders of Google and Facebook have been selling week after week.
Overall I don't see insider selling as a strong signal unless a cluster of insiders are selling consistently even as the stock is dropping.