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Assaf Nathan  

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  • Time To Pick Up Vale [View article]
    Well Eddie, after a 64% decline, I guess we can re-check who is the idiot.


    I hope you sold your shares early... because you are in for some more pain, the cycle is not over yet (and will not end for a decade).
    Dec 8, 2014. 05:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Iron Ore Is Going To Be Great In 2013 [View article]
    Iron ore is abundant in our planet. The increase in output will only speed up these stock's demise.

    25 year average of iron ore suggests a price of 50$ per tonne. 50 year average suggest closer to 25$ per tonne. The chinese chapter was a mere blip of supply / demand imbalance in the history of iron ore (10 year blip). That's the story... so simple. Revert to the mean.

    at 50$ per tonne VALE bleeds cash. Lets see who these turns out for the longs.
    Dec 8, 2014. 05:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Iron Ore Is Going To Be Great In 2013 [View article]
    Well, now 40$ can buy me 5 shares of VALE.

    BTW, by 2017 I think that even 8$ are too much.
    Dec 8, 2014. 05:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Where It Is Darkest: When Company, Country, Currency And Commodity Risk Collide! [View article]
    yea well, valuing VALE according to LTM operating earnings is a bit contradictory to the previous paragraph that he said iron ore prices are not a normal price.

    LTM price average was around 110$ per tonne, so basically this work is valuing Vale in 110$ per tonne prices, when we are around 70$ per tonne, 40% lower. Vale has operating leverage, so 40% drop in prices may consitute over 60% drop in operating earnings, much lower than his "20% worst case"...

    Look at Vale recent quarter - a drop of 80% in underlying earnings, while iron ore kept on declining after quarter end.

    Luckily for the professor, the interest rate cut in china may postpone things a little bit and may look like the professor is right, but I would bet that he is dead wrong.
    Nov 23, 2014. 03:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Choose Royal Bank Over Wells Fargo [View article]
    I think that the comparison is very superficial. The banks have completely different cultures.

    WFC cut its dividend because the gvmnt made it (mistake of omission). WFC also took bailout money, unlike what you said, it is called TARP (mistake of commission).

    The financial crisis did not hit RY because Canada's economy largely depends on resources - like oil and mining. These assets performed well in the crisis. US system depends on consumption and financial services, that performed poorly in the crisis.

    How will loans to mining companies and industries related to mining and resources will perform is completely different question than how will loans to consumers and consumption etc.

    Commodities and resources hadn't had the best year and unfortunately probably more is to come. China's appetite for resources is declining and will continue to decline the coming decade, and the so called "commodities super cycle" largely fuelled by china will come to an end.

    Where would you wanna be: in the best bank in the US, an economy that is improving and thriving after the worst crisis in the last 80 years, or in the largest bank in canada, an economy that will face headwinds and recession, and an exploding asset bubble in the coming years?

    I don't need "beta" or "gamma" to know. As Buffett once said: "I don't need a scale to know if someone is fat".

    My 2 cents.
    Nov 19, 2014. 12:49 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Global: The Untapped Future Of Telecommunications [View article]
    Overbuilding means that other providers are building infrastructure in parallel to Liberty's. In other words "50% overbuild" means that 50% of the houses have more than one cable provider that can supply them with service.

    If you read it like "Building over" it gets clearer.
    http://onforb.es/XECThu

    It seems you got the meaning wrong.
    Aug 6, 2014. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SAIC: A Profitable Solution To A Conflict Of Interest [View article]
    Just wanted to update - I bought after the record date but before the spin date - and I still got SAIC, as I expected.
    Oct 7, 2013. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SAIC: A Profitable Solution To A Conflict Of Interest [View article]
    BTW - SAI is the "regular way". There is another ticker for "ex market". So i'm pretty sure I will get my shares.
    Sep 25, 2013. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SAIC: A Profitable Solution To A Conflict Of Interest [View article]
    Thanks for your comments. It may be very well that you are right, although this does not make sense to me.

    We'll know in a couple of weeks I guess, yesterday I bought a few shares just to participate in the spinoff.
    Sep 24, 2013. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SAIC: A Profitable Solution To A Conflict Of Interest [View article]
    see page 7 at the bottom. For your convinience:
    ---------------
    If I sell, on or before the distribution date, shares of Parent common stock that I held on the record date, am I still entitled to receive shares of New SAIC common stock distributable with respect to the shares of Parent common stock I sold?

    A:
    Beginning on or shortly before the record date and continuing through the distribution date for the spin-off, Parent’s common stock will begin to trade in two markets on the NYSE: a “regular-way” market and an “ex-distribution” market. If you hold shares of Parent common stock as of the record date for the distribution and choose to sell those shares in the “regular-way” market after the record date for the distribution and on or before the distribution date, you also will be selling the right to receive the shares of New SAIC common stock in connection with the spin-off. However, if you hold shares of Parent common stock as of the record date for the distribution and choose to sell those shares in the “ex-distribution” market after the record date for the distribution and on or before the distribution date, you will still receive the shares of New SAIC common stock in the spin-off.

    --------------

    So, if selling the shares means selling the rights, on the same logic, buying the shares means also buying the rights.

    Otherwise, the share price would have dropped to represent the distribution, common sense :0)
    Sep 23, 2013. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SAIC: A Profitable Solution To A Conflict Of Interest [View article]
    There is nothing there to contradict what I said.

    On the record date the rights to receive shares in New Saic are attached to the currently trading shares. Record date shareholders will get explanations about the distribution by mail.

    Selling the shares in the period between the record date and the distribution date will be also as selling the rights to the spin-off.
    Sep 23, 2013. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SAIC: A Profitable Solution To A Conflict Of Interest [View article]
    The share price did not change at all on Sept 18th. Seems odd if your statement above is true.

    To my understanding if you buy the share till EOB at Sep 27 you will still be a part of the spinoff.

    Here is from the latest 8-K:

    Any holders of shares of SAIC common stock on the record date who sell SAIC shares “regular way” on or before the close of business on September 27, 2013, also will be selling their right to receive shares of Science Applications common stock in the distribution.
    Sep 23, 2013. 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Iron Ore Is Going To Be Great In 2013 [View article]
    Haha yeah right.

    I think VALE will be around 8-6$ in 2015.

    China will grow less than 5% in 2014 and less than 2% in 2015.

    7 months from what I wrote and you can get VALE at a 30% discount.

    In another 7 months you will get it in another 30-50% discount.

    And this is not over yet :-) stick to your stocks, you're in for some pain !

    Let's see how VALE eats these numbers by then.
    Aug 6, 2013. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Pick Up Vale [View article]
    Well, one year and 40% less later...
    Oh, and it is just the beginning.
    May 29, 2013. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BAC Stock And Warrant Returns Relative To Book Value - Part II [View article]
    you forgot to mention that not only the strike price is adjusted due to dividends but also the underlying stock number per warrant get adjusted.

    This is a much stronger adjustment than merely changing the strike price.
    Mar 9, 2013. 05:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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