Atim Kabra

Smartphones: The Mobile Industry Is About to Get 'Blown Apart'

i recently saw the specs of Nokia's N97. 32 GB of memory expandable to 48GB, QWERT keyboard, plays music and supports multiple formats of video. The portable industry is evolving at a great pace. Nokia is talking of making available a symbian based operating system for notebooks (more like netbooks). Netbooks, Sony P series and now Nokia N97... line is blurring very fast between smartphones and netbooks. Dell, HP better have their responses ready or will watch their lunch been eaten by others.

The Joke Called Indian Accounting Standards

The guys who make money in India are the managements of these companies. You have to follow their lead if you got to make money consistently. Probably the best indicators of markets being frothy. They are the ones who sell high during good times and then buy back at lower levels.
Please analyze the Convertibles issued out of India in this boom to get a clearer picture of what i am saying.

All the best
On Mar 26 08:07 AM Ajay Widge, CFA wrote:

> Hi Gaurav,
>
> I totally agree with you ... any time that there is a call to suspend
> MTM requirements, you know someone is trying to hide something. If
> the managements "forgot" to hedge their FX exposures, then they deserve
> to be kicked hard by investors (ever harder if they are family managed
> firms, because they will be siphoning funds out anyway!!!).
>
> On the matter of Crompton Greaves, I am a former employee and always
> had a great impression of the management; I carried these feelings
> to my later jobs and duly invested in the GDR when it was first listed
> (circa 1998). Sure enough, the issue was priced at it's peak and
> never saw the issue price again. The lead managers (Jardine Fleming)
> cut a sorry figure in our office and were too embarrassed to offer
> advice for a long time. They are a sharp bunch and give a damn for
> the investors ... I stay away from them as far as I can.
>
> And I agree on the comment on INFY; to this list i would like to
> add ICICI (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) as I feel that stock
> will lead any market rally.
>
> Regards.

Hewlett-Packard May Not Be on Sound Footing

you are right. will not write again on short positions. it is ethically in a maybe zone with disclosures but still takes the attention away from the main point. thanks for pointing out.


On Mar 02 07:49 AM Sick of Shorties wrote:

> Nothing like writing an article that supports your own position in
> an attempt to drive prices down a little more. There should be a
> simple rule: if you hold <i>any</i> position on a stock you don't
> write a critique.

Hewlett-Packard May Not Be on Sound Footing

You might be right Ron. However, i have physically seen most of the note books and compared specs just last month. I strongly recommend you check out Sony, Lenovo, Acer, Dell etc for updated information. In net books, pl try and see some details on Sony P series (mini). I wished to highlight that there is no strong compelling reason which HP offers in its products vis a vis the competition. This is a market where margins will be under pressure and average realization per unit will be falling.
atim




On Mar 01 11:26 PM ron_paulite wrote:

> " None of HP's notebooks or desktops stand out vis a vis the competition.
> "
>
> Obviously u haven't been following the notebook market, HP Mini 2140
> is selling like hot cakes in the US and overseas. Maybe even better
> than Acer - which pioneered the mini notebook.
> Dell and Lenovo don't have a good Mini yet.

Improving Corporate Governance: A Blueprint to Prevent Scams Like Satyam's

I agree copperbaron. I have been on Boards of both US and Indian companies and what i have seen is not much different in either of these places.

I think we have to break the nexus between who appoints the watchdogs and who gets watched over...

As long as the auditor, independent director, the investment bank or the rating agency knows that their fees from current assignment, other assignments from the same client and their future renewal of the contract depends on their ability to 'please' the management while doing their job supposedly, we are walking very treacherous grounds.

Let us see what changes the collective outcry produces or whether it is back to regular business.


On Jan 27 09:19 PM copperbaron wrote:

> Atim,
>
> Good article. We definitely need to get much tougher scrutiny of
> the companies and banks that employ our capital and ask for our trust.
>
>
> Everybody knows that auditing is sort of a joke, a smokescreen to
> assure investors that the 'books have been scrubbed' and that they
> can sleep at night, knowing their investment is safe.
>
> Unfortunately, there are many crooks about, and often the investor
> is not kept abreast of what is really happening at the company.
>
>
> I agree with rotating auditors, having them assigned and paid by
> an independent audit board, and making them more accountable for
> good performance rather than the song and dance that "auditing" has
> become in the U.S. at least. I can't imagine it's any better in India,
> but if it is, good. But auditing is not enough, unfortunately.<br/&...
>
> It is not that hard to have good, sharp investigators go into a public
> company unannounced at random times during the year, to spot-check
> such things as bank transfers, suspicious transactions, insider self-dealing,
> options abuses, and the like.
>
> But above all, we should have very tough and vigorous prosecution
> of corporate wrongdoers. The Bernie Ebbers types, the Andy Fastows
> and Jeff Skillings, Dennis K, etc. - these are all terrible crooks
> and they deserve very tough sentences when caught and convicted.
> We get some, and some deplorable skanks like Scrushy get away with
> it - but prison time gets these jokers rattled like nothing else.
>
>
> Most high-level execs I know think audits are pretty much of a joke,
> and we have proven to them time and again that they are right!

The Political Case to Short India

One can argue that India does not merit a top down index driven investment strategy. However, fundamentally disagree with those who tend to write off India. I think good research base is required to identify good investment opportunities in India.

in India there are multiple positive factors at work at any point in time setting off the many negatives. A large growing middle class, one of the best productive demographics, enterprising entrepreneurial spirit and increasingly a cost base benchmarked to the best in the world, giving Indian companies a capability to compete with the best in the world.

In my opinion, for those who can, the best way to ride this is to go in for bottoms up strategy. Identify good solid companies with significant operations in India and managements with a global footprint and invest in them.

Valuations are correcting (not yet done with the correction in large caps) though it is the mid caps and small caps where i see best value as of now. There are companies which are not significantly impacted by the global mayhem and are not cyclical in the small caps sector. I think on a risk reward matrix, these companies will generate decent returns for the patient few.

Short India Is a Perfect Emerging Market Trade

Fundamentally flawed argument:

Information technology companies and basic commodity producers / integrated commodity based plays which make a significant percentage of the Indian market (be it the BSE 30 Index or Nifty Fifty: main indices for synthetic products) are not impacted if the rupee falls against the dollar. IT companies realise better profits while commodity producers price themselves in dollar parity terms.

A falling currency argument may have some merit (though argument may turn itself on its head when markets stabilize). However, the currency will fall, so short the market is not the best of the strategies.