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  • KB Home In 2015: Valuation And Prospects
    Thu, Mar. 26 KBH 4 Comments

    Summary

    • KB Home delivered strong first quarter results and appears to be poised to capitalize on further tailwinds in the sector.
    • On a historic P/B basis, which is the basis on which the homebuilders have usually traded, KB is still relatively inexpensive.
    • KB has exposure to Texas and other states that are being hit hard by the drop in the price of oil.
  • Where Will Twitter Be At The End Of 2015?
    Tue, Feb. 17 TWTR 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Twitter's monetization ramp-up is still rapid but is slowing down on a percentage basis.
    • Twitter succeeds as a news platform, a way of following celebrities, and a source of viral trends.
    • Whether Twitter achieves its monetization goals or not, the stock is a poor investment because investors will not be giving the company such generous valuation metrics in the future.
  • What Should We Expect From Twitter In Q3?
    Jul. 29, 2014 TWTR 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Twitter's MAUs and time spent on the website are more important than EPS and revenue.
    • Twitter's mobile advertising revenue will be rewarded less by the market in the coming months (and years).
    • Twitter's microblogging format has connection advantages but it does not tap very strongly into Facebook's network effect.
  • 7 Disturbing Facts About Montage Technology
    May. 16, 2014 MONT 40 Comments

    Summary

    • After three months, Montage Technology still has not responded in any kind of detail to the allegations by Gravity Research.
    • Montage Technology's 10-K is more than 45 days late.
    • Montage might be suspended from trading or de-listed by the Nasdaq, perhaps as soon as June 2.
    • Any one of a number of events could cause Montage shares to fall by 50%.
  • Wet Seal: Substantial Upside, Stock Has Been Sold Off On Emotion
    May. 1, 2014 WTSL 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Wet Seal went through a panicked sell-off in March, and has in the last 52 weeks lost 65% of its value.
    • The company is currently trading at a significant discount, given its fundamentals: a P/S of 0.18 and a P/B of 1.45.
    • Insider buying has been extensive and suggests that the risk at this point in the Wet Seal turnaround is considered to be minimal by management.
    • The company's cash position is strong: $46.16 million in existing cash and $27 million in further financing after a recent equity raise.
    • The management team is a veteran staff with extensive experience in the teenage fashion industry. It has weathered cyclical changes before.
  • Why The Pandora Earnings Report Doesn't Matter
    Apr. 24, 2014 P 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Pandora is experiencing extraordinary revenue growth.
    • Pandora is not profitable.
    • The earnings report will reveal nothing new on either of these metrics.
    • User growth decline is what matters.
    • Pandora trades alongside the momentum stocks anyway.
  • Plug Power: A Keynesian Beauty Contest
    Apr. 20, 2014 PLUG 62 Comments

    Summary

    • PLUG is a different game than other stocks right now.
    • The game is more or less a Keynesian beauty contest.
    • It is not right now irrational for Plug longs to be playing this contest.
    • It will become very irrational in the future for Plug longs to play this contest.
  • Invest, Don't Trade: Lessons From The Tax Collector
    Apr. 17, 2014 SPY 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors make off much better than traders in capital-gains taxes.
    • It pays to be patient in times of market uncertainty.
    • Trying to beat the market's pricing action is a dangerous game in terms of taxes.
  • Follow The Leader: Pandora's Analyst Upgrades
    Nov. 17, 2013 P 20 Comments
  • Pandora: The Next 6 Months
    Editors' Pick • Nov. 11, 2013 P 4 Comments