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Atlas Shrugged

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  • Plug Power: Irrational Exuberance To End In Ruin [View article]
    Source: http://yhoo.it/1ix79Q5

    Bookings are not equivalent to revenue. I.e., the Walmart deal will be recognized over 2 years even though it was booked entirely when the deal was inked.

    And, given how many times Marsh has forecast revenue growth and profitability in the past 5 years and followed it up with dismal results, I don't really view his outlook as valuable. He is threading a fine line with the SEC, given that he has a vested interest providing favorable guidance so the company can sell more paper to stay out of bankruptcy court.
    Mar 11 05:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power: Irrational Exuberance To End In Ruin [View article]
    Article was submitted yesterday after market close.
    Mar 11 03:24 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Better Place Bankruptcy Is Relevant To Tesla's Achilles' Heel: Lack Of Charging Infrastructure [View article]
    PrivCo's report provides full 2012 and 2011 financials on Better Place - think Balance Sheet, Income Statement, as well as the Round C venture capital valuation: http://bit.ly/12KEX3X
    May 28 02:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of 3D Systems' 2012 Results [View article]
    The problem with your line of reasoning is that none of those companies have experienced a growth in reseller channels in the way that 3D Systems has through acquisitions. These are one time sales that inflate revenue figures temporarily. The revenue results confirm the growth story, but they will not be continued.
    Feb 26 06:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of 3D Systems' 2012 Results [View article]
    Thank you for the insightful comment. Although I disagree, I appreciate the grounded thoughts.
    Feb 26 04:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of 3D Systems' 2012 Results [View article]
    Let's do it in public. My going rate is $.01 per page view. If I wanted to maximize my earnings I'd be writing fluff pieces on DDD and you'd salivate over them.
    Feb 26 03:59 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: How Market Dynamics Have Created A Bubble [View article]
    Huge promise, but the technology is a long time off from mainstream adoption. I can't speak to the valuation. I recently interviewed Terry Wohlers of the Wohlers Report, and will be publishing the interview. He has some good insight on the area.
    Feb 21 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: How Market Dynamics Have Created A Bubble [View article]
    Forbes reported a consensus estimate (http://onforb.es/157jmoA), not the company's earnings. If you're referring to the Gartner chart, it is the one from 2012, which makes you having seen it for a few years is impossible, unless you think they release the same thing year after year with no changes. And, I mentioned that they will most likely meet or exceed earnings expectations in the article.

    The reason I am singling you out, is because you have confirmed my expectation that most of the people who have commented saw the title of the article, did not read it because it conflicted with their own views, and decided to spew some bile in the comments section.
    Feb 21 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: How Market Dynamics Have Created A Bubble [View article]
    I am not connected to Citron Research in any way.

    Blackrock actually scaled its position in DDD back in the last reported quarter. Vanguard only bought about 100,000 more shares. Fidelity bought 3.1 million shares. All of these positions are included in the data I presented, which demonstrates a trend. You, on the other hand, are cherry picking, and overreaching as you do so.
    Feb 20 11:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: A Sobering Reality [View article]
    Solely based on new order reports, it seems like Arcam has differentiated technology with high demand. It was trading at a discount 3 months ago to other additive manufacturers until an author published several articles that brought it into the spotlight on Seeking Alpha. Since then it has run up by almost 200%. It sports a more reasonable valuation than DDD and SSYS, but still seems to be part of the industry froth. As a caveat, it is much smaller than the other companies (22m in ttm revenue) and so should necessitate a larger risk premium.
    Feb 16 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zale Corporation: Deteriorating Fundamentals, Aggressive Accounting, Equity Dilution, And Overvaluation [View article]
    There is no steadfast rule in GAAP on how to treat warranty revenue. GAAP provides guidelines, and the company utilizes its own assumptions and models to meet Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. For instance, Signet Jewelers recognizes its warranty revenue over 14 years, not 8, and recognizes much less in the first two years than Zale does.

    I do not have a position in Zale and never have. I wrote this article because of my belief that the stock is glaringly overvalued - it represents simply my research and analysis on the company.
    Feb 15 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zale Corporation: Deteriorating Fundamentals, Aggressive Accounting, Equity Dilution, And Overvaluation [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to write an in-depth response. I do disagree with your notion that the company can be legitimately valued by a sum of the parts approach, given that management has refused to go down that road before in 2010 (http://on.wsj.com/VgcEcJ). Instead of spinning off operations, it has chosen to close them down. And creditors have no interest in selling off pieces, given that their loans are fully collateralized by inventory..
    Feb 13 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: A Sobering Reality [View article]
    The truth of that parallel has been bothering me for some time.
    Jan 17 12:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: A Sobering Reality [View article]
    The competitive advantage 3D Systems holds is of the first mover variety - it is secured by patents it has developed itself, and patents it has acquired. Yet it operates in a growth industry which will see innovation in the entire product spectrum. The company controls around 20% of the market today. As innovation happens across the industry, 3D systems lacks a significant moat. Worst for the company, if its vision of democratizing 3D printing is an accurate forecast, the industry will most likely fragment in the way that the printing industry itself has. There is no positive externality that it can generate for users through its hardware and it will feel the pressure, much like regular printing producers did, of a commodification of both its original idea and the materials which it sells at such high margins today.
    Jan 17 12:18 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: A Sobering Reality [View article]
    Thank you for alerting me Good Captain. The graph is sourced in the Excel data above it. It is, in fact, data from 2006-2012F, but the axis marks are incorrect. ROIC dips below WACC in 2011 and trends further down in 2012. The corrected chart is here: http://bit.ly/10zSmQ2
    Jan 16 04:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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