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  • Nokia: A Turnaround Through Creative Destruction [View article]
    Thank you for all the comments everyone. I appreciate the kind words.
    Oct 25 11:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: A Turnaround Through Creative Destruction [View article]
    Your first figure include one time restructuring charges of EUR 2.4 Billion and a EUR 750 million in a dividend payment. At a transitional moment in the company, I think it's important to look at QoQ financial results, which have improved significantly on all fronts.
    Oct 25 11:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: A Turnaround Through Creative Destruction [View article]
    Well said John.
    Oct 25 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile: Adhesive For The Broken-Hearted [View article]
    your last point is conjecture, but it is food for thought.
    Oct 24 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile: Adhesive For The Broken-Hearted [View article]
    Your argument has merit, but management already forecast a loss in Q3: "New launch timing and integration of GameSpy technology will lead to an adjusted EBITDA loss in Q3. However, for Q4 and the full year 2012, we expect to be adjusted EBITDA positive." (Source: Q2 Conference Call)

    As far as Q4: "There will also be another five new franchise titles launched in Q4. Our sequels, Q4 release volume, and later launch of Q3 titles combine to position us for an exceptionally strong Q4 2012 and Q1 2013. [...] Q4 will see four sequel titles from our most successful 2010 and 2011 franchises: Blood and Glory Legends, Gun Bros Two, Contract Killer Two, and Contract Killer Zombies: Evelyn’s Story."

    There is variance in game development. But I disagree that a few small misses justify a nearly 50% decline in share price. The company is still the same, the people are still the same, their position in the industry is still the same.
    Oct 24 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: The Simplicity Behind All The Complexity [View article]
    Solid points all around. However, I disagree with your idea that viewing part of Vringo's value as a call premium is simply a contortion of words. Option premiums are composed partly of time value that stems from the duration of an option as it moves towards expiration. As you move closer to expiration, this time value decreases because the underlying's volatility will have a smaller and smaller chance to produce intrinsic value for the option. Because so much of Vringo's fate hinges on the verdict of the trial or a settlement before its completion, this part of Vringo's equity value does indeed have an expiration, just like an option. And every day that a settlement does not occur reduces the chances that it will from the perspective of a market participant.
    Oct 23 09:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: The Simplicity Behind All The Complexity [View article]
    The November 16th call options with a strike at $5.00 trade at 0.75. Given the trial's expected completion by the end of October, how do you feel about the $1.25 premium of the warrants over the calls, given the much much longer duration? Does Vringo have any real prospects if it loses the Google trial?
    Oct 23 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: The Simplicity Behind All The Complexity [View article]
    A trial verdict in favor of Vringo gives the company credibility, precedent, and the opportunity to pursue other companies in the search engine business like Microsoft. Google was up first because it's the biggest fish. A verdict for Vringo would also lead other infringers of the Lang patents to fall in line and settle - this phenomenon would occur absent the expensive litigation strategy you mention.
    Oct 23 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: The Simplicity Behind All The Complexity [View article]
    I think you conflated two separate arguments - the analysis on VRNG's call premium component and why it will decline until verdict absent settlement merely explains why the stock has been and will continue to decline. The fundamental valuation of Vringo based on a trial verdict is mutually exclusive from the effect of a settlement.
    Oct 23 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: The Simplicity Behind All The Complexity [View article]
    Conservative relative to the estimate I reached in my previous article.
    Oct 23 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: The Simplicity Behind All The Complexity [View article]
    A rumor surfaced of a meeting between the parties in the judge's chambers, which some interpreted as movement towards settlement. If it turns out to be false, it will simply be another iteration of the expectations and subsequent lack of fulfillment that makes up VRNG's daily volatility. If it turns out to be true, a settlement could be in the cards.
    Oct 23 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: The Simplicity Behind All The Complexity [View article]
    Alan, I agree with you that the dilutive shares exist and should be considered in almost every case as a part of the valuation. I do not believe that they should be utilized here for the same reason that a multiple should not be applied to the potential outcome - it involves speculation with assumptions that will almost assuredly be wrong. If Vringo wins, the shares will be diluted to the number you mention, but the valuation of Vringo's future patent litigation opportunities will also spike.
    Oct 23 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Why The Underdog Will Come Out On Top [View article]
    This is a solid point from the technical perspective. I also think that there is a fundamental reason due to a decrease in the probability of a settlement/acquisition after every day of the trial that passes - the stock had priced some probability of settlement in.
    Oct 23 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: The Simplicity Behind All The Complexity [View article]
    Thank you for all the comments and well thought-out criticisms. I have made a correction to the article to utilize the roughly 75 million outstanding shares. I did not use the number of outstanding diluted shares of ~110 million, because I think it defeats my point that simplicity here is a more accurate framework than a model strewn with forward-looking assumptions.
    Oct 23 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile: Adhesive For The Broken-Hearted [View article]
    Zynga's problem centers around the difficulty of monetizing through Facebook, a problem Glu does not have. Facebook and Google's problems have to deal with difficulties in advertising revenue - Glu's profit comes from in-game sales of virtual goods, which has little if anything to do with the advertising market. Advertising has had a harder time transitioning to mobile because of the constraint of smaller screens. Glu's success is a demonstration that this is a hurdle mobile games have already jumped. The macro factors you bring up seem less relevant than the stunning growth that mobile gaming is experiencing.
    Oct 23 12:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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