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Atle Willems, CFA's  Instablog

Atle Willems, CFA
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Atle Willems, CFA, is an equity investor with a long-term view investing in undervalued listed shares with solid operational track records and sensible balance sheets. He holds a master's degree in finance from Nottingham University Business School, a bachelor's degree in business... More
My company:
Liabridge
My blog:
EcPoFi - Economics, Politics, Finance
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  • This Stock Market Ratio Is Now 14.2% Higher Than In Q1 2000 And 45.0% Higher Than In Q2 2007

    And no, the ratio is not peaking due to historically low private investments as the current 10-year average hit an all-time high in Q3 this year.

    (click to enlarge)

    Wilshire 5000 as of 24 November 2014

    Click here for more ratios and charts for the U.S. stock market.

    Disclosure: The author is short MYY.

    Nov 25 9:24 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The U.S. Stock Market Risk Indicator, September 2014

    The U.S. stock market risk indicator for September declined slightly from the August all-time high. This slight decline was largely driven by a declining stock market and a money supply growth rate which declined at a slower pace than it did in August.

    The indicator continues to signal that future stock market returns will be very poor at best.

    (click to enlarge)

    Read this article for back ground information.

    Disclosure: The author is short MYY.

    Tags: Economy, Stocks, Macro
    Oct 01 8:27 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The U.S. Stock Market Is Running Out Of Monetary Rocket Fuel

    Originally published on EcPoFi 20 September 2014.

    On Wednesday the Federal Reserve announced it would taper its asset purchases by another $10 billion starting next month. Fed monthly asset purchases will by then have been reduced from $85 billion a month in December last year to "just" $15 billion from October, a reduction of 82.4%.

    (click to enlarge)

    This Fed taper is greatly reducing the overall monetary stimuli. The U.S. stock market is now therefore rapidly running out of the monetary rocket fuel that contributed to its rather smooth, and ever continuing, surge since March 2009.

    Adding the increases in Fed assets and the Austrian True Money Supply, the year on year growth rate in the total monetary stimuli has now dropped from 15.8% in October last year to the current 11.2%. The growth rate will continue to drop fast going forward unless the Fed reverses its current policy course.

    (click to enlarge)

    As a result of the Fed taper, the percentage point change in the total monetary stimuli growth rate is now currently 2.7 percentage points lower than at the same stage last year (11.2% vs 13.9%). Furthermore, the growth rate has now dropped for nine consecutive weeks, hardly good news for the stock market.

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: The author is short MYY.

    Sep 26 4:10 AM | Link | Comment!
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