Comments on Atticvs Research's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/atticvs-research/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/153596-expect-big-improvements-in-these-three-chinese-steel-companies?source=feed#comment-616160 616160 Wed, 05 Aug 2009 10:27:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153596-expect-big-improvements-in-these-three-chinese-steel-companies?source=feed#comment-615090 615090 Tue, 04 Aug 2009 15:10:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-603453 603453 Mon, 27 Jul 2009 10:23:27 -0400
Separately, GSI had a number of large credit facilities maturing in Q2 - by now these have already been rolled-over and we must await issuance of June 30'09 10Q to learn of the new maturity dates. Credit has been easing in China so let's see what the company says in August.

GSI did a $60m shelf filing in January 2009. Since that time the Chinese steel industry has experienced an upturn that has been stronger and swifter than almost all commentators expected. Steel prices in China have now, Jul 27, risen about 25% since April this year. It is becoming clear that profitability in Q3 will be very substantially higher than brokers had estimated, and I now believe they will be higher than I had estimated in my own note. The point about this being as follows: Bearing in mind that GSI's profitability will stem from the $216million investment that GSI completed in Q1 2009 (i.e. already paid for), and bearing in mind that customers pay GSI partially in advance for purchases, GSI will generate much stronger positive cash-flows each quarter than Net Income. And since we are now pretty sure that GSI will generate strong profits during the remainder of 2009 - unless steel prices crash, which is unlikely in the face of the huge stimulus program - then we can take some assurances that GSI will also generate strong positive cashflow during 2009. This, allied to the issuance of say 6 million new shares I mentioned above, ought to alleviate the liquidity tightness evident on GSI's Q1'09 Balance Sheet. Do also recall that even after the issuance of 6m new shares GSI should earn somewhere between 1.00 to $1.50 per share next year, or possibly more.

In essence I do agree that investors need to keep an eye on GSI's Balance Sheet. However, I also now believe that the earnings estimates used in the Seeking Alpha note were conservative, possibly too conservative, and that GSI will generate both strong profits and stronger cashflows during Q3 and Q4 2009 that will alleviate Balance Sheet gearing and ratio concerns.

Bottom line is that existing Balance Sheet concerns are already over-reflected in GSI's stock price, very much so.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-603314 603314 Mon, 27 Jul 2009 09:03:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-595570 595570 Mon, 20 Jul 2009 16:21:22 -0400 Love the company and the stock; thanks for the analysis (updating your analysis of a couple of years ago, which was also very good, if a little ahead-of-its-time in relation to stock price).

Correction/question related to sales prices per sq. meter in Xi'an: you state that
"Assuming Puhua achieves net income of 25% sales this would translate to net income, for CHLN alone, in the region of $100 million over the 4-year life of the project. These figures are arrived at by using sales price per sq metre of $850 – being recent sales price per sq metre achieved by CHLN. In reality Puhua is a very upscale project, is situated directly on the Ba river front and it should command selling prices a great deal higher than just $850 per sq metre, or $80 per sq feet."

Although it's possible that CHLN will achieve such prices in Puhua, the company recently quoted 4,955 RMB per sq meter in other projects for Q2, which translates into about $658/sq meter, not $850. This relatively modest housing cost in Xi'an is actually a significant positive for this company. Property prices in Xi'an have never experienced the bubble or crash seen in the coastal cities. Xi'an is much more affordable and has experienced steady, sustainable growth in sales generally and $ per sq meter. In addition, Xi'an is not overbuilt -- living space per capita is well below most other large cities, leading to substantial pent-up demand among Xi'an's large upper-middle class population (CHLN's typical target customer up to now).

Keep the generally excellent articles coming. Thanks.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-593014 593014 Sat, 18 Jul 2009 12:16:39 -0400
thanks,
Aaron]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-586599 586599 Mon, 13 Jul 2009 19:05:29 -0400
Had a few questions for you if you don't mind:

NEP:
1. I was wondering how they came up with the 75m barrels of reserves. I understand that they had 3rd party assess their proven reserves but I'm not sure how they got their probable reserves numbers - are those management estimates? Do they have a PV10 for their probably reserves?
2. How did they arrive at that 35% extraction rate? Is that pretty typical for the industry/the type of oilfields they have? I don't know the industry so if you could provide a bit of insight into that

GSI:
1. Could you talk about their liquidity? Their current ratio is looking a bit ugly though you make a really good case for their value.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-585964 585964 Mon, 13 Jul 2009 12:47:01 -0400
I own a small position in GSI which I am holding, but am adding to my CPSL shares on every pullback.

Have been long NEP since March also.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-580578 580578 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 10:55:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-578839 578839 By the way nawar, I read your profile, my background is marketing > and finance as well!]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:45:18 -0400
regards,
Nawar


On Jul 08 10:40 AM manuel wrote:

> By the way nawar, I read your profile, my background is marketing
> and finance as well!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-578829 578829 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:40:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-578830 578830 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:40:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-578821 578821 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:36:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-578818 578818 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:34:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-578800 578800 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:29:53 -0400
you may check out "sistema hals", russian real estate, very undervalued

ISIN: US82977M2070]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-578791 578791 when will nep report earnings?]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:22:47 -0400
regards,
Nawar


On Jul 08 10:15 AM manuel wrote:

> when will nep report earnings?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-578772 578772 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:15:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-578770 578770 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:15:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97948-delinquencies-of-subprime-rmbs-climb-but-jumbos-drop?source=feed#comment-270313 270313 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 08:49:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89713-china-north-east-petroleum-growth-confirmed-stock-re-rating-anticipated?source=feed#comment-237108 237108 Sat, 23 Aug 2008 09:08:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89713-china-north-east-petroleum-growth-confirmed-stock-re-rating-anticipated?source=feed#comment-228001 228001 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 14:36:39 -0400
PE is not a good valuation tool as "G" needs to be quantified and not spread from company to company within a sector. In oil producers there are many small speculative companies that pull up the PE and "G" is a function of a commodity price.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89713-china-north-east-petroleum-growth-confirmed-stock-re-rating-anticipated?source=feed#comment-226392 226392 Fri, 08 Aug 2008 15:36:32 -0400
I for one would be very happy to see those figures in 2 years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89713-china-north-east-petroleum-growth-confirmed-stock-re-rating-anticipated?source=feed#comment-225443 225443 Thu, 07 Aug 2008 16:09:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89713-china-north-east-petroleum-growth-confirmed-stock-re-rating-anticipated?source=feed#comment-225219 225219 Thu, 07 Aug 2008 12:25:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/62400-the-long-case-for-china-north-east-petroleum?source=feed#comment-219091 219091 I was wondering what would cause the recent drops in the price. Considering > all oil has done the past week is gone up, it's weird to see a company > that profits from it go down without having any bad news. I have > bought at todays price of 1.87 and also 2.15. I will be longing this > one, but i'm just wondering if anyone has some insight. Thanks]]> Thu, 31 Jul 2008 08:05:22 -0400

On Mar 12 11:44 AM 97m6formula wrote:

> I was wondering what would cause the recent drops in the price. Considering
> all oil has done the past week is gone up, it's weird to see a company
> that profits from it go down without having any bad news. I have
> bought at todays price of 1.87 and also 2.15. I will be longing this
> one, but i'm just wondering if anyone has some insight. Thanks]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/62400-the-long-case-for-china-north-east-petroleum?source=feed#comment-219090 219090 CNEH is all about oil- Oil prices skyrocketing to bubble portions. > Some dday the happy hour will en but not for weeks. Last week I have > added to my CNEH holdings @ 3.95.]]> Thu, 31 Jul 2008 08:02:51 -0400 CNEH is still doing a bit better than other O&G companies. China O&Gs are tracking US O&G companies down with the drop in oil price from the 147 to todays 126, I'm holding a lot of CNEH and pleased with it's outlook. Yes I have added morfe shares in the 4.3 to 4.7 range. Thus I'm very biased. Watch the next earnings report due in about 2 weeks- boom time? The company is unique in many ways. Seeing is beleving! max petrisek wrote:

> CNEH is all about oil- Oil prices skyrocketing to bubble portions.
> Some dday the happy hour will en but not for weeks. Last week I have
> added to my CNEH holdings @ 3.95.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/62400-the-long-case-for-china-north-east-petroleum?source=feed#comment-195702 195702 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 07:23:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75660-china-north-east-petroleum-strong-growth-clear-visibility?source=feed#comment-194381 194381 Fri, 27 Jun 2008 14:17:32 -0400
I have substantial investment in CNEH, which I have undertaken in the $4.5 range, I believe this company has the potential to cross the $10 mark within the next few months, strong oil prices and a strong growth profile will both undermine the move, while the float will probably amplify the upward move.

I believe the share price will significantly benefit should the company undertake an acquisition of further oil reserves, such an acquisition will greatly help the stock price for several reasons:

- Higher valuation due to bigger reserves.
- Higher future revenues as the new assets get drilled.
- The pricing of acquisition growth in the stock price, which will already add to a strong organic growth profile.

CNEH certainly has the potential to overshoot to the upside once the stock moves to the AMEX or NASDAQ, while the stock present a rare investment opportunity, traders and speculators are likely to push the limits of the reasonable in the next few months.

As for a specific comment on the article, you mention the risk of a higher windfall tax, as a matter of fact Petrochina president is expecting a lower tax (he mentioned that in AGM May 15th) Petrochina is expecting the government to up the windfall tax threshold to reflect current oil prices, as well as to stimulate production, which in effect means lower tax for the oil producers on current prices, thus I believe the tax issue will be a positive catalyst for the stock price in the near future.

Regards,
Nawar
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/49583-the-long-case-for-general-steel-holdings?source=feed#comment-189148 189148 Fri, 20 Jun 2008 11:22:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/49583-the-long-case-for-general-steel-holdings?source=feed#comment-174219 174219 Mon, 26 May 2008 20:35:51 -0400
Just curious what your thought are now on GSI. Their sales appear to be doing fine, but earnings is much more elusive. Love to hear your comments.]]>