Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
The "collective mind of the market" runs according to the sentiment waves we track. THAT is how we know when a trend is ending, and can usually provide fairly accurate targets for where we would expect a trend change!! This is EXACTLY what EW does!!! It tracks the sentiment of the collective, and gives you fair warning of when sentiment is about to change.
And, when "more data" causes you to take your eye off the "sentiment-ball," then that data is hurting you and not helping you. So, more is not always better!!!!! This is something I am working with my 4yo to understand!! lol :)
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
Robert, I will tell you that I called the top in gold within a dollar or two, as every one else was looking for over 2000!!!
And, your perspective that the "stock market is a rear view mirror discounting what is already known" is complete foolishness in my mind, especially if you REALLY understand how sentiment works . . and I have addressed this fallacy many times in the past. So, again, I will direct you to this article, which hopefully will show you that your perspective has gone out with the dinosaur:
I also have an article coming out in the upcoming edition of Stocks and Commodities magazine, in which I addressed this issue as well:
This brings us to the next premise that many point toward,and that is the market moves ahead of the economy because the intelligent investors “discount” the future. Does that mean that the same investors who are at the ready on Thursday morning — poised to buy or sell based on the news — are now omniscient and don’t really care about the news? No; this is simply another one of the time-honored explanations commonly given as to why the market leads economic trends but which is unsubstantiated.
Probably put best, Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former deputy research administratorat the World Bank, and former senior economist atthe International Monetary Fund noted the following regarding those using lagging market information, such asearnings, employment, or economic indicators, for predictive purposes:
The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad.In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why most economists always proclaim the economyto be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when weknow what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
Thanks silver bog. As for Mr. Wagner, just because one statement of his is wrong or right does not necessarily invalidate his entire thesis. I think each assertion should be analyzed on its own, which I have tried to do in this back and forth we seem to be having here.
But, from my perspective, I really dont care if gold is a currency or not. It makes absolutely no difference to me and how I look at where it is going. And, in the very long term, this thing is going to rocket . . . so, there is no question that I am a long term gold and silver bull. The deeper the correction we see over the next few months, the bigger of a long term rally we may see in the metals.
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
guzzi, I soooooo disagree you need fundamental analysis, as I use absolutely ZERO fundamental analysis in any of my market analysis, and have done VERY well. And, I would go so far as to say that it can lead you astray - for example, when you fall in love with the underlying "story!"!
As for me being "hot," I should have been burned by now, as it has been two years since I started writing for SA!! lol It is not an issue of hot or not . . it is an issue of understanding the larger context of the market and how it moves. Will I be right 100% of the time. NO WAY!!!!!!! Will I be right a much higher percentage of the time than I am wrong .. . well, I think my record has proven that.
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
Robert, The stock market - as a whole - is THE BEST sentiment indicator known to man. It shows the most immediate actuation of man's social mood through his buying power for stocks. THAT is the basis behind Elliott Wave theory.
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
Again, as you follow the metals more and more closely, you will learn that none of the reasons you espouse will move the metals. Rather, you will ultimately learn that the Emperor is wearing no clothes at all, wherein now you feel that he is still wearing underwear!!!
Sentiment is NOT a catch phrase. If you say so, then you clearly do not understand it in the manner in which one of the great investor minds in history - Bernard Baruch - clearly understood it when he said:
All economic movements, by their very nature, are motivated by crowd psychology. Without due recognition of crowd-thinking ... our theories of economics leave much to be desired. ... It has always seemed to me that the periodic madness which afflict mankind must reflect some deeply rooted trait in human nature – a trait akin to the force that motivates the migration of birds or the rush of lemmings to the sea ... It is a force wholly impalpable ... yet, knowledge of it is necessary to right judgments on passing events.
Gold: A Little Lower, And Then A Rally [View article]
NOOOOOOO . . again, news does not affect sentiment . . the reaction to news tells us ABOUT sentiment. But, there is a logical inconsistency if you claim that sentiment is affected by news, if you understand that news only reports actions of men which were taken based upon sentiment.
Take a look at these articles, which will explain why the metals move and why news really is not the driving factor:
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
But when you claim that you do not know what will make gold go up other than a rush to it as a "safe haven," then you lose credibility with attempting to maintain a perspective that it only moves on sentiment!?!?!??! There is a lack of consistency there, about which I was commenting.
Gold: A Little Lower, And Then A Rally [View article]
yes jim . . when I am unsure, I do state so. This past week, I saw a potential set up for one more rally before this drop, but the probability was not high enough for me to trade it or suggest it as a trade. For now, we are getting closer to a much higher probablity long trade into June!!
Gold: A Little Lower, And Then A Rally [View article]
No . . it has NOTHING to do with the news at all . . as news is only the reporting of the actions which have resulted from the current social mood. But, news events are often seen as a catalyst for another move within the trend . . but does not CAUSE the trend. If on can understand this nuance, then markets become a lot easier to understand.
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
And, when "more data" causes you to take your eye off the "sentiment-ball," then that data is hurting you and not helping you. So, more is not always better!!!!! This is something I am working with my 4yo to understand!! lol :)
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
I will tell you that I called the top in gold within a dollar or two, as every one else was looking for over 2000!!!
And, your perspective that the "stock market is a rear view mirror discounting what is already known" is complete foolishness in my mind, especially if you REALLY understand how sentiment works . . and I have addressed this fallacy many times in the past. So, again, I will direct you to this article, which hopefully will show you that your perspective has gone out with the dinosaur:
http://bit.ly/Uz2fp0
I also have an article coming out in the upcoming edition of Stocks and Commodities magazine, in which I addressed this issue as well:
This brings us to the next premise that many point toward,and that is the market moves ahead of the economy because the intelligent investors “discount” the future. Does that mean that the same investors who are at the ready on Thursday morning — poised to buy or sell based on the news — are now omniscient and don’t really care about the news? No; this is simply another one of the time-honored explanations commonly given as to why the market leads economic trends but which is unsubstantiated.
Probably put best, Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former deputy research administratorat the World Bank, and former senior economist atthe International Monetary Fund noted the following regarding those using lagging market information, such asearnings, employment, or economic indicators, for predictive purposes:
The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad.In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why most economists always proclaim the economyto be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when weknow what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the
goal is assessing the future?
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
But, from my perspective, I really dont care if gold is a currency or not. It makes absolutely no difference to me and how I look at where it is going. And, in the very long term, this thing is going to rocket . . . so, there is no question that I am a long term gold and silver bull. The deeper the correction we see over the next few months, the bigger of a long term rally we may see in the metals.
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
As for me being "hot," I should have been burned by now, as it has been two years since I started writing for SA!! lol It is not an issue of hot or not . . it is an issue of understanding the larger context of the market and how it moves. Will I be right 100% of the time. NO WAY!!!!!!! Will I be right a much higher percentage of the time than I am wrong .. . well, I think my record has proven that.
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
The stock market - as a whole - is THE BEST sentiment indicator known to man. It shows the most immediate actuation of man's social mood through his buying power for stocks. THAT is the basis behind Elliott Wave theory.
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
Sentiment is NOT a catch phrase. If you say so, then you clearly do not understand it in the manner in which one of the great investor minds in history - Bernard Baruch - clearly understood it when he said:
All economic movements, by their very nature, are motivated by crowd psychology. Without due recognition of crowd-thinking ... our theories of economics leave much to be desired. ... It has always seemed to me that the periodic madness which afflict mankind must reflect some deeply rooted trait in human nature – a trait akin to the force that motivates the migration of birds or the rush of lemmings to the sea ... It is a force wholly impalpable ... yet, knowledge of it is necessary to right judgments on passing events.
Gold: A Little Lower, And Then A Rally [View article]
Gold: A Little Lower, And Then A Rally [View article]
Gold: A Little Lower, And Then A Rally [View article]
Take a look at these articles, which will explain why the metals move and why news really is not the driving factor:
http://bit.ly/12LIFdO
http://bit.ly/Uh24An
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
Gold: A Little Lower, And Then A Rally [View article]
Gold: A Little Lower, And Then A Rally [View article]
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]