Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
you can choose to become a member of my site if you need the answer earlier!?!? lol :) I need to give my paying members a leg up on those to which I provide free advice!! lol :)
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
Now where did you get this!?!??! lol Can't say I disagree . . .
But, I look at it like this, also quoted from my 2012 forecast introduction:
Based upon much recent research, it seems that, as a society, we are moved by our limbic system, which controls the impulsive actions of living creatures (including the “herding” impulse), and which will, subconsciously, often override the neo-cortex of our brain, which controls our reason. As Eric Hoffer aptly noted, “When people are free to do as they please, they usually imitate each other.”
However, it has also been proven that the extent of this effect will vary on an individual basis. Therefore, as individuals within the overall society, we are not necessarily completely bound by the decisions made by society at large, so we are then able to make choices which can, to some extent, protect us from the mistakes repeated by the masses throughout history. This, my friends, is probably the most powerful tool available to Elliotticians in our time. It is our ability to understand the overall trend of the masses, which potentially gives us the opportunity to act in contravention to the negative, harmful trends.
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
It does take time. My problem initially was that I was following other analysts, and each one had a specific perspective that clouded their analysis. They attempted to fit the market into their perspective.
After seeing that this is how most analysts apply EW, which is not at all the way Elliott had envisioned, then I started doing my own counts. After a while, I started getting a "following" of people who were watching my market predictions based upon my counts in both the overall markets, metals, and specific stocks, and they pushed my to open my site!! lol In fact, I owe a lot to Harry Boxer at TheTechTrader.com . . . who is a phenomenal day trade advisor, who was the impetus for me starting my site!!!
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
Is that why RN Elliott made the most remarkable market prediction of all time when he said:
" [1941] should mark the final correction of the 13 year pattern of defeatism. This termination will also mark the beginning of a new Supercylce wave (V), comparable in many respects with the long [advance] from 1857 to 1929. Supercycle (V) is not expected to culminate until about 2012."
You may want to reconsider your perspective. In fact, what do you base your claim upon that waves of sentiment cannot predict long term!?!??!?
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
he did it buying stocks during a 70 year bull market fueled by the largest credit expansion in history. Ever since credit has been contracting, he has not done quite as well, has he?!?
You need to take a much larger look at the bigger trends to really understand what is going on. In fact, my market call for a top in gold within $2 of the top was based upon a calculation using prices going back well over 100 years!!
As for psychology as the market mover, I have written extensively about this in my 2012 market forecast, and I will quote some of it - but this is cut and pasting various parts from the overall publication:
If you ask almost any trader or investor what drives the market, you will receive a myriad of answers from earnings, to the Fed, to the economy, etc. Yet, they will also maintain that the stock market is the best “leading indicator” for the overall economy.
The problem with these two presumptions is that they are purely contradictory. In fact, if the stock market is the “leading” indicator for the economy, then how can whatever lags the “leading” indicator foretell what the “leading” indicator will do?
If an intellectually honest individual actually took the time to ponder this question, they would recognize this common fallacy which has been adopted by the masses. However, I hope you can see that attempting to reconcile these two positions is logically untenable.
Since almost everyone, including the U.S. Commerce Department, recognizes that the stock market is a leading indicator for the U.S. economy, then logic dictates that changes in the stock prices precede, and do not follow, changes in economic fundamentals or news about them.
Bernard Baruch, an exceptionally successful American financier and stock market speculator, who lived between 1870-1965, identified the following long ago:
"All economic movements, by their very nature, are motivated by crowd psychology. Without due recognition of crowd-thinking ... our theories of economics leave much to be desired. ... It has always seemed to me that the periodic madness which afflict mankind must reflect some deeply rooted trait in human nature – a trait akin to the force that motivates the migration of birds or the rush of lemmings to the sea ... It is a force wholly impalpable ... yet, knowledge of it is necessary to right judgments on passing events."
To provide a nice summation for this theoretical overview, I would like to provide another quote from Professor Douglas:
"[We should] consider an alternative to mainstream macroeconomics’ idea that each individual is a “representative agent” with rational expectations, responding mechanically to exogenous changes in news about economic fundamentals . . . Perhaps we should entertain the contrasting assumption that endogenous changes in aggregate expectations - in confidence and mood, in optimism and pessimism – are at least a force, if not the driving force, behind stock prices and the economy. The economy expands and contracts not because of random shocks, as suggested by mainstream business –cycle theory, but because optimism and pessimism in societies naturally trend and reverse in the form of a robust fractal."
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
I generally have no problems with being on the correct side of the market. This is what EW is for. As for the silver market, I am still saying that one more decline is still POSSIBLE, but I am watching the pattern this week. IF we do get one more decline, then THAT will be the final low before 50+.
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
We should know this week if the uptrend has begun of if this is simply a 4th wave before the final 5th wave down to the FINAL low. The rally would begin thereafter. But, we are looking for confirmation this week one way or the other.
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
First, when it comes to movements in metals, there is no such thing as common sense.
Second, I had many people tell me the same thing when I said it was time to short gold and silver at the last tops. Although we may still see another decline, we are near a bottom and will see one more parabolic rally. Can I be wrong? Sure. But, I see the likelihood as greater than 75%!!!
2012 Could Be A Monster Year For The S&P [View article]
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
But, I look at it like this, also quoted from my 2012 forecast introduction:
Based upon much recent research, it seems that, as a society, we are moved by our limbic system, which controls the impulsive actions of living creatures (including the “herding” impulse), and which will, subconsciously, often override the neo-cortex of our brain, which controls our reason. As Eric Hoffer aptly noted, “When people are free to do as they please, they usually imitate each other.”
However, it has also been proven that the extent of this effect will vary on an individual basis. Therefore, as individuals within the overall society, we are not necessarily completely bound by the decisions made by society at large, so we are then able to make choices which can, to some extent, protect us from the mistakes repeated by the masses throughout history. This, my friends, is probably the most powerful tool available to Elliotticians in our time. It is our ability to understand the overall trend of the masses, which potentially gives us the opportunity to act in contravention to the negative, harmful trends.
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
After seeing that this is how most analysts apply EW, which is not at all the way Elliott had envisioned, then I started doing my own counts. After a while, I started getting a "following" of people who were watching my market predictions based upon my counts in both the overall markets, metals, and specific stocks, and they pushed my to open my site!! lol In fact, I owe a lot to Harry Boxer at TheTechTrader.com . . . who is a phenomenal day trade advisor, who was the impetus for me starting my site!!!
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
" [1941] should mark the final correction of the 13 year pattern of defeatism. This termination will also mark the beginning of a new Supercylce wave (V), comparable in many respects with the long [advance] from 1857 to 1929. Supercycle (V) is not expected to culminate until about 2012."
You may want to reconsider your perspective. In fact, what do you base your claim upon that waves of sentiment cannot predict long term!?!??!?
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
You need to take a much larger look at the bigger trends to really understand what is going on. In fact, my market call for a top in gold within $2 of the top was based upon a calculation using prices going back well over 100 years!!
As for psychology as the market mover, I have written extensively about this in my 2012 market forecast, and I will quote some of it - but this is cut and pasting various parts from the overall publication:
If you ask almost any trader or investor what drives the market, you will receive a myriad of answers from earnings, to the Fed, to the economy, etc. Yet, they will also maintain that the stock market is the best “leading indicator” for the overall economy.
The problem with these two presumptions is that they are purely contradictory. In fact, if the stock market is the “leading” indicator for the economy, then how can whatever lags the “leading” indicator foretell what the “leading” indicator will do?
If an intellectually honest individual actually took the time to ponder this question, they would recognize this common fallacy which has been adopted by the masses. However, I hope you can see that attempting to reconcile these two positions is logically untenable.
Since almost everyone, including the U.S. Commerce Department, recognizes that the stock market is a leading indicator for the U.S. economy, then logic dictates that changes in the stock prices precede, and do not follow, changes in economic fundamentals or news about them.
Bernard Baruch, an exceptionally successful American financier and stock market speculator, who lived between 1870-1965, identified the following long ago:
"All economic movements, by their very nature, are motivated by crowd psychology. Without due recognition of crowd-thinking ... our theories of economics leave much to be desired. ... It has always seemed to me that the periodic madness which afflict mankind must reflect some deeply rooted trait in human nature – a trait akin to the force that motivates the migration of birds or the rush of lemmings to the sea ... It is a force wholly impalpable ... yet, knowledge of it is necessary to right judgments on passing events."
To provide a nice summation for this theoretical overview, I would like to provide another quote from Professor Douglas:
"[We should] consider an alternative to mainstream macroeconomics’ idea that each individual is a “representative agent” with rational expectations, responding mechanically to exogenous changes in news about economic fundamentals . . . Perhaps we should entertain the contrasting assumption that endogenous changes in aggregate expectations - in confidence and mood, in optimism and pessimism – are at least a force, if not the driving force, behind stock prices and the economy. The economy expands and contracts not because of random shocks, as suggested by mainstream business –cycle theory, but because optimism and pessimism in societies naturally trend and reverse in the form of a robust fractal."
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
As for a forum, feel free to check out our site . . elliottwavetrader.net
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
As for "strong time for metals," lol . . sorry, but they want to me to include some fundamental analysis.
As for S&P, yes, I see us going over 1300 . . . the question is now how high, as there are several patterns at play.
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]
Second, I had many people tell me the same thing when I said it was time to short gold and silver at the last tops. Although we may still see another decline, we are near a bottom and will see one more parabolic rally. Can I be wrong? Sure. But, I see the likelihood as greater than 75%!!!
Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think [View article]