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Bachar Samawi  

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  • Everything Has Changed: Oil, Saudi Arabia, And The End Of OPEC [View article]
    The premise that Saudi Arabia does not want to leave oil in the ground is weak and makes no sense: If Saudi Arabia has a total of 100 barrels in the ground, it would much rather pump 50 of it (and leave 50 in the ground) and sell it at $80 dollars/barrel, for a net revenue of $4,000, than pump the whole 100 barrels and sell them at $20 for a net revenue of $2,000.

    Saudi Arabia's move has only two credible explanations: A- It is political in order to weaken Russia & Iran, B- In the current weak demand environment, It has somewhat lost its swing producer status to shale...
    Jan 13, 2015. 08:14 AM | 78 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Moment Of Truth May Have Arrived [View article]
    You make a good point CrusaderPete. Let's say I was simply being diplomatic...
    Dec 10, 2014. 09:11 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is LinkedIn A Better Buy Than Facebook? [View article]
    Thank you for your comment Jaxon Research.

    We have amended the language in the second paragraph to reflect the words "outperformance" and "underperformance" for one stock vs. the other on spread trades, in order to address your comment.
    Dec 7, 2014. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is LinkedIn A Better Buy Than Facebook? [View article]
    Thank you for your comment les2005.

    A company's weakness is a negative factor if such factor cannot be overcome. When Facebook first went public, its shares got hammered due to its weakness in monetizing mobile users. Yet, as time progressed, Facebook showed improvement in such area, and hence it became a potential for opportunity. Had investors simply totally written off Facebook due to its early weakness in monetizing mobile users, they would have simply missed the gains that Facebook ultimately realized...

    You should probably read some of the skeptical comments that were posted on our first article referenced above recommending buying LinkedIn in 2012...

    LinkedIn does not have a weakness; it has potential for substantial growth in ad revenues, as its demographics provide it a better opportunity for effective targeted advertisement throughout its media publishing.
    Dec 7, 2014. 07:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia: Do The Math [View article]
    Michael it is always important to read between the lines... Especially from Politicians... Naimi is a Politician...

    The quote you provided says "Naimi spoke about market share rivalry with the United States...". First , it is a second hand quote... Second, the quote says he "spoke of". I have not seen a first hand report, where an official from Saudi, whether Naimi or other, has actually said that they are maintaining output for market share... Furthermore, even if such statement was made, I would not believe it, as I believe that given the current political situation in the GCC/Middle East, such topic takes the back seat to current political concerns with respect to Iran/Syria/Russia etc...

    Now, with respect to "if Russia falls off a cliff, Putin will make sure to bring others down ", I believe your assessment is not accurate. Historically speaking, the west has never operated on the premise that it should preserve its adversaries in fear of what would happen if such adversaries were to fall. Look at the end of the Soviet Union, Vietnam, Germany (WWII), Libya, Iraq, Syria, etc... Furthermore, the west (and Saudi Arabia as it is a US ally) are always more interested in the risks of a current foe, than they are interested in the threat of the alternative... In general, if the west feels that an adversary is overreaching, the west wastes no time to put plans in place to clip such foe's wings....
    Dec 6, 2014. 12:42 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia: Do The Math [View article]
    Did Saudi Arabia actually announce that they are defending their market share? Or is this speculation by everyone on their motivation?

    The only motivation that makes sense is a political one, as some have conjectured. Lower oil prices will hurt Russia more than anyone else; hence, it is no surprise that such move by Saudi coincides with geopolitical issues relating to Russia.

    When it comes to political motivations, cost becomes less important...

    This is a very good article, but its basic assumption of Saudi Arabia's motivation for its move, linked to market share, is not necessarily true, and hence quantifying it takes the back seat to possible political motivation...
    Dec 5, 2014. 05:08 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Up 169%, Is Apple Supplier Skyworks Still A Buy? [View article]
    We believe Micron is a better valuation. We published an article on our website:
    Dec 4, 2014. 06:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Up 169%, Is Apple Supplier Skyworks Still A Buy? [View article]
    Thank you everyone for your comments. Very often, whenever we write something that readers disagree with, we get the same type of comments written above. That is exactly why we wrote this follow-up article; when we recommended buying SWKS one year ago, many disagreed with our assessment, and yet it is up more than 169%. There are some good comments here, but from a risk/reward perspective, we believe SWKS is no longer as compelling as it used to be as a buy at this time.

    Why did some believe that "valuation" was expensive one year ago (when SWKS stock was much cheaper), and cheap today? Always remember that forward P/E ratios already incorporate rosy future expectations...

    As per article, from a long term perspective, SWKS may still look good, but in the near term, we would prefer to invest elsewhere.

    If you examine our past articles, you will note that we have a very good track record... We will soon provide on our website an actual measurement of such track record for all our past articles.
    Dec 3, 2014. 04:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Exxon And Other Big Oil? [View article]
    Thank you for your comment buyandhold2012.

    You make a good point in reference to the broader market current record levels...

    I do agree that the next major market correction will drag down most stocks, although from a cyclical perspective, I prefer not to bet against the broader market between November and May...
    Nov 29, 2014. 12:52 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: $800 Done, $1,000 Pre-Split Next? [View article]
    Thank you for your comment Zipper0. You provide some good points.

    From a longer term perspective, you are right, as provided in the article we published and referenced in the reply to .

    As a technology company, while in the past I do not believe Apple shares carried a "differentiation" PE adder, that is no longer the case today; an expansion in its forward PE ratio as well as in its free cash flow multiple have already occurred; although they may still have a little more room to go...

    Nevertheless, there are still some short term headwinds. Investors and traders often get carried away; when Apple had retreated in 2013 by over 45% from its previous high, dropping form over $100 in Sep 2012 to about $55 in April 2013, many were expecting it to drop even further... Yet now that it has appreciated by over 116% from its April 2013 low, many now are expecting Apple to possibly increase by over 20% to 50% in a relatively short period...

    There is one top, and one bottom, and thousands of trades, estimates and predictions. For such reason, I do not necessarily try to pick the top or bottom, but mainly evaluate based on risk/reward scenario. In the near term, current headwinds make a 10% drop more likely than a 10% appreciation. Furthermore, in case Apple does appreciate by 10% or more from current levels prior to dropping by such amount, I do believe that investors would still have the opportunity to purchase Apple at current levels, as any such appreciation would also raise the likelihood of a subsequent drop to current levels...

    Once again, from a longer term perspective, I agree with you, and I do believe that Apple is the best candidate out there to breach $1 Trillion market cap.
    Nov 27, 2014. 05:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: $800 Done, $1,000 Pre-Split Next? [View article]
    Thanks you for your comment richbar. The market cap referenced in the article implicitly takes buybacks into consideration, as it is calculated based on current outstanding shares.

    As for the stock price, split or no split, no adjustment is needed for buybacks. Adjustments are typically made for comparison basis for dividends and splits only, which have economic effect on holders of shares.

    For example, suppose you buy a stock at $100 in 2012, and then the company engages in buybacks, but the stock price remains at $100 in 2014, with no dividends & no splits, then if you sell the stock in 2014 at its price of $100, you have no gains and no losses despite the buybacks.
    Nov 27, 2014. 01:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: $800 Done, $1,000 Pre-Split Next? [View article]
    We typically don't. In this case, we are simply putting it in perspective of the Apple series of articles we had previously published, as referenced in the article, as a courtesy to those readers.

    This article provides both prices within (pre-split and post-split), and serves as transition for future Apple articles, which, as you suggest, would always provide post-split prices.
    Nov 27, 2014. 01:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: $800 Done, $1,000 Pre-Split Next? [View article]
    For how they may get to $1T see article I referenced in reply to ritam2001
    Nov 26, 2014. 04:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: $800 Done, $1,000 Pre-Split Next? [View article]
    From a longer term perspective, I agree, as per article I published on October 22, 2013: Will Google Beat Apple to $1 Trillion

    From the nearer term perspective, there are some headwinds, as per article...
    Nov 26, 2014. 04:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Google And Buy Facebook [View article]
    Facebook valuation metrics have already incorporated increased display ad monetization by FB. Yet, despite such expectations, FB is still trading at a forward P/E ratio of about 44 for 12/2014 and 35 for 12/2015. Such ratios are too high, despite FB's expected growth rate, given the current macro environment, as well as FB's accumulation of substantial goodwill on its balance sheets due to its acquisitions (which can easily be written off at least partly in the future). Furthermore, FB can also be easily disrupted, while with a market cap of over $162 billion, it can easily lose half its market cap in a heartbeat.

    In summary, given macro risks, disruptive risks, excessive forward P/E ratio risks, future goodwill write-off risks, additional use of FB stock as currency for future acquisitions risks, Facebook is overpriced at these levels and can easily drop between 20% to over 40% in a heartbeat if any such risks materialize....
    Jun 4, 2014. 11:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment