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Bachar Samawi

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  • Oil Price Spike May Not Justify Buying Big Oil Stocks [View article]
    There is no quesiton qualqauan that such attack is a risk. However, such risk is already reflected in current oil prices, otherwise, due to all the other factors listed, oil would be trading substantially lower.

    Remember, when the first Gulf War started, as soon as it started, oil prices dropped.While prior to the start of the war, everyone was talking about how Sadam would burn all the oil fields in the gulf.... The U.S. is less dependent today on Gulf oil than when Sadam invaded Kuwait....
    Feb 27 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Price Spike May Not Justify Buying Big Oil Stocks [View article]
    That is a good point Craig Cooper. Also, some Big Oil, such as Exxon, are better hedged by generating revenues downstream, while others are more exposed upstream. However, given the large percentage of XOM's profits last year that resulted from higher oil price, then there is still a downside risk to most....
    Feb 27 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Price Spike May Not Justify Buying Big Oil Stocks [View article]
    Thank you for your comment labo. You are right. There was an error made by the editor, and it was corrected.
    Feb 27 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: 3 Social Media Advantages That Could Boost Shares [View article]
    Remember they would have to be net revenues, as opposed to gross revenues, or possibly the net revenue per subscriber number can be larger on a smaller subscriber base, or smaller on a larger subscriber base.....
    Feb 25 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: 3 Social Media Advantages That Could Boost Shares [View article]
    Please note that $10-plus per member is not expected to be generated by literally charging every member a membership fee. However, it is what ultimate revenues are expected to be when translated on a per member basis.

    For example, a company looking to fill a senior executive position may very well be willing to post a targetted vacancy-notice on Linkedin for a cost of $1,000 or more, in order to attract qualified professionals to express interest... There are also many other possible sources for generating income from the business community and search consultants....
    Feb 25 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: 3 Social Media Advantages That Could Boost Shares [View article]
    Thank you for your comment Esekla... It is important for Linkedin management to execute properly, effectively, efficiently, and to be true to their original mission. If your observations about Linkedin are correct, then management needs to address them before they lose their members loyalty.

    However it is not unusual for fast growing companies to face some challenges while they try to keep up with their tremendous growth rate. Models are often fine-tweaked along the way, and in the case of Linkedin, I believe it is a matter of needing to continuously fine-tweak their operational challenges.
    Feb 25 04:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: 3 Social Media Advantages That Could Boost Shares [View article]
    Thank you for your feedback MMich. Indeed the earning potential from an executive search perspective is tremendous. At the same time, they must be careful not to dilute their competitive advantage, by growing the subscriber base too much, whereby it ends up diluting their demographic and user profile advantages. Hence, it is very important for Linkedin to start showing actual monetization of such potential very soon... otherwise investors will continue to doubt such potential, and will continue to draw analogies to Facebook and Twitter...
    Feb 25 04:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: 3 Social Media Advantages That Could Boost Shares [View article]
    Although it is possible that the lock-up expiration period may result in short term downward pressure on the shares, in the long term management execution and executive search monetization is what will matter....
    Feb 24 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: 3 Social Media Advantages That Could Boost Shares [View article]
    If one analyzes LNKD in a traditional manner mostly based on advertising revenues, you are possibly right. It all depends how LNKD unlocks value for the executive search industry; given their mission, and assuming they execute well, there is a good possibility LNKD can possibly reach such target in the long term. As for now, we all know where the stock is... I have a time horizon of up-to 3 years. However, such target can be reached much earlier depending on execution.

    Although it is true that LNKD users do not actively use the site, there has been research that has shown that LNKD generates three times the leads that other sites generate.... Once again, it is about quality...
    Feb 24 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Scenarios For The Netflix Sequel - Investors Get Ready For A 3-D Ride [View article]
    You make very good points Akram's Razor. If indeed the range turns out to be 90 to 110 during the next 4 mobths, then it will be more challenging to cover time=decay from a long straddle strategy perspective. At the same time, if there is an initial drop, followed by a pop, then one can convert the position into a naked call and synthetic call position on the drop, covering 70% of the cost of the straddle, and then possibly increasing returns from a pop. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the stock, and the level of anxiety that prevails, there is a good possibility the range may exceed 90 to 110....
    Feb 22 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Indications Apple Shares Haven't Peaked Yet [View article]
    Well said relayer75. A market wide selling pressure is what could possibly drive Apple lower. At the same time, even when such event happened in the past, in the several following months, Apple still came back even stronger.... With the cash they have at hand, in addition to the quarterly profits being generated, and the global demand for their products, Apple at this time remains in the driving seat....
    Feb 22 08:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Things To Consider Before Investing In Wal-Mart [View article]
    WMT's biggest risk is the comfort level of its shareholders. Most comments posted on this article reflect that.

    The fact remains that WMT missed its expected earnings.

    I believe Justin's point is that current stock price leaves little room for any mishap, for a company highly dependant on retailing volume revenues, with limited margins, and respectful debt.

    Hence, this is more a matter of whether the perceived low risk of walmart justifies the perceived return. With an earnings miss, the return proved to be mis-perceived. Meanwhile, retailing is not a low risk business, and historical performance is not an indication of future performance; hence the perceived risk is too low vis-a-vis the risks that may lay ahead in the future (for example, if the economy does better, maybe less people will be inclined to save money by shopping at WMT; maybe interest rates will then rise and WMT debt will become expensive to service; maybe shoppers tastes simply change, and want to try shopping elsewhere; maybe a new competitor enters the market; maybe someone mis-manages WMT; maybe more people switch to online shopping....).

    A lot of "ifs" that apparantly investors feel comfortable that WMT will weather, but I agree with Justin that the limited prospects for WMT, with the current earnings miss, do not justify taking such risks at current share price.
    Feb 22 03:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Big Transformation + Big Data = Big Returns [View article]
    This is a very good overview of IBM, and they certainly must be complimented on their flexibility and evolution throughout the years. At the same time, I somewhat agree with Deja Vu skepticism regarding lack of core subject expertise at a consultant level.

    As a matter of a fact, throughout my career, we have often hired consultants for similar tasks, and I often found that we provided added value to them, while they provided the presentation package...Having said so, for liability & responsibility limitation, as well as objectivity needs, I do not believe that corporates will do away with such practice.... As a matter of a fact, every decade, we are witnessing the birth of several new conglomorates; google, facebook, etc... did not even exist 20 years ago. By the time they realize they need less of the likes of IBMs, others will sprout around who would believe they need IBM and IBM-like consultants to catch-up with the learning curve....
    Feb 21 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Second Look At Long-Term Favorite Stocks As The Market Spikes [View article]
    It is not unreasonable to do so if you are a long term investor, and you believe that relative to certain metrics, it is still cheap....
    Feb 21 12:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Greek Bailout Good News For Google? [View article]
    Well, they did not seem to have done so for Q4 2011, otherwise they would not have blamed their earnings shortfall on the lower Euro....
    Feb 21 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment