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Bachar Samawi

 
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  • Apple At $800: Flight Delay Or Cancellation? [View article]
    I addressed your question in the article: 'Will Apple drop after October 22 event?' http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 16 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Drop After Oct. 22 Event? [View article]
    It is definitely the case that earnings will be in the spot light/ At the same time, investors will be looking at future revenue outlook, which will be affected by the new products, such as those launched at the event...
    Oct 16 11:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Drop After Oct. 22 Event? [View article]
    Thank you Ihoggan436...
    Oct 16 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Retail: Meet The New Boss, Better Than The Old Boss [View article]
    It is too early to tell for sure how she will do, despite her past credentials. However, the most important message to take from her hire is that Apple products will remain upscale products that the entire population spectrum would aspire to own. Hence, it is unlikely Apple will go the route of building cheaper products for the masses, as many have been pressuring Apple to do.

    At the end of the day, Apple products are finding their way to the masses, while retaining their high price, and enabling Apple to avoid commoditizing, which would typically ultimately drive its margins to zero.

    This hire may provide Apple the ability to further build the status symbol associated with its products, hence possibly retaining and improving margins....
    Oct 16 02:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America's Real Source Of Earnings Growth In 2014 [View article]
    The financial institutions, and BAC, have had a tremendously constructive environment during recent past months. Many such factors will subside in the future and BAC could struggle. The inevitable tapering by the Fed will remove a massive supporting factor. In case such tapering is delayed, then that would be a result of uncertain economic environment, in which case BAC could also be at risk. New BAC is still unproven, while potential side effects may also develop....
    Oct 16 01:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Earnings: Why Investors Should Be Concerned [View article]
    Very informative and comprehensive Bill.

    On the 'giving back cash' points, it actually does not make sense for Intel to increase it until it gets more traction in the current fluid environment. Furthermore, when the environment is constructive, Intel can actually indirectly use its cash outside the US to give back by borrowing against it, if it so chooses.

    The technical death cross is indeed important because when technicals and fundementals converge, that is typically when the strongest signals are provided; Intel share are at a risk of dropping further given their light guidance and negative charts.
    Oct 16 01:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone Will Be In Third Place In 2015 [View article]
    Indeed, chasing the low-end market is a recipe for an eventual death. Apple is doing the right thing by staying out of the low end market and retaining its brand. At the end of the day, the low-end market becomes commoditized and margins are driven to zero, as happened in the regular PC business. As long as Apple stays out of the low end market, I would recommend buying Apple... Once Apple goes that path, then I would look for a long term exit point....
    Oct 15 03:06 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Default Has Already Begun [View article]
    Thank you Byron I am aware of that. However, when used as a "Benchmark", their yield is supposed to provide an indication as to where interest rates would be in case default risk was not taken into consideration. However, given the factors described in my comment such as Fed purchases, the meaning of such benchmark has become skewed, artificial and less informative. That was my point...
    Oct 15 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Default Has Already Begun [View article]
    Treasuries have stopped being the 'risk free baseline' several years back. In my opinion, when financial instruments yield negative real yield (after taking inflation into consideration), then they are no longer risk free. On the contrary, they carry the inherent risk that the purchasing power of money has eroded. We often associate 'risk free' as meaning free of counter-party default risk.

    If an entity has the ability to issue unlimited debt obligations, as the US government has done, and another entity has the ability to buy massive amounts of such debt at artificial levels, as the Fed has done, then we have simply created the misconception that it is risk-free. True risk-free is the yield at which no one is given the green light to print unlimited amounts of money to maintain certain artificial levels of yield, as the Fed has done....

    To elaborate further, suppose the Fed suddenly tomorrow decided not to buy anymore treasuries, and instead decided to sell $80billion in treasuries per month. Within one day, yields will jump several percentages. How could anyone explain that risk-free was 1.0% one day, and jumped to over 4% the next? It would still be the same issuer, and nothing has changed about the issuer... Such scenario would simply prove that those yields economists described as 'risk-free' were artificial....
    Oct 15 01:49 AM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks That Can Spike Due To Massive Short Interest [View article]
    Thank you for your comment Dampflock. In case of a catalyst, certainly Tesla can gap lower given its valuation. Trading psychology on the other hand typically causes longs to be more patient than shorts. In an environment of lack of catalyst, time would be on the side of the longs as long as migration to electric cars persists....
    Oct 14 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taleb Versus Reality [View article]
    That's a good point TomasViewPoint. I suppose that is always possible...
    Oct 14 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taleb Versus Reality [View article]
    Don't take what Taleb says strictly at face value; develop a mutation of it that works...

    I met Taleb in the 1990's in New York when I believe he was consulting for Indosuez. At that time, I had developed substantial option trading methodologies and models that I had actually implemented and made money implementing them on wall street in fixed income and mortgage backed securities options. I discussed with him some aspects of my trading methodology, which consisted of actually being long options, and whereby I developed option trading models to determine values of periods where high volatility events would be more likely to occur. In a sense, I was trading what others would later consider black swans, years before Taleb published his book. Although my trading aims to take advantage of black swans through long volatility positions, I disagree with Taleb in the sense that I believe that although it is not possible to predict Black Swan events, it is possible to determine environments where such events have a higher likelihood of occurring....

    Same goes to randomness...

    I believe that Taleb had developed his theories after being unable early in his career to consistently generate profits by trading. There is some worth to his theories, as there is some worth to what is being discussed here. However, there is no finite answer, and the truth in the case of Taleb is always some mutation of what he says, which if you discover it and apply it, you will likely do well as a trader and as an investor. Once you have discovered it, you actually cannot discuss it.... If you do, then those others who apply your methodology will squeeze such opportunities to being fairly priced, and hence you are back at an efficient model....

    To claim and discuss that you have a winning trading strategy is ultimately as much self defeating as it might be self fulfilling....
    Oct 14 03:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Much More Profitable Than Perceived And A Foolhardy Short [View article]
    Jake, Paulo makes excellent points. It is not reasonable to discount such costs as you have done.

    In addition, please do note that Amazon is not the only company in the world that is subject to such accounting requirements; all companies are.

    Hence, if you are to make a true comparison to its competitors, WMT or other, you need to compare apples to apples, and you would need to apply the same items you backed out from Amazon to other companies as well....

    I still enjoyed your article, and it is interesting, but it goes overboard in implying that such depreciation is mostly unwarranted... A small percentage of it might be, but most of it is not, and everyone else is subject to GAAP accounting...
    Oct 14 02:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shutdown Impact On Buffett Top Holding IBM [View article]
    Good points Momintn. It is also important to note that all Dow Jones index companies are global. Yet the companies listed in the article, during the periods examined,, have outperformed the Dow index, with the exception of PG.
    Oct 10 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shutdown Impact On Buffett Top Holding IBM [View article]
    s.khan it is true there are mutiple factors, and we cannot conclude conclusively that such appreciation is strictly due to a government shutdown. However, what I have been doing during my trading career for 26 years, and it has proven profitable over time, is that I often take seasonalities into consideration, as I also do look at similar events and cycles.

    You can track all my 80 articles or so that I have written so far, and you will find that I have a very good track record in my methodology overall, although I certainly am not right on everything, but have been more right than wrong, and I also often follow-up on my articles and strategies and propose profit bookings as cycles and valuations shift.
    Oct 10 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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