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Bachar Samawi

 
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  • Apple Could Take Another Beating [View article]
    In the long run, valuations always matter. Furthermore, Apple's cash at this point is probably close to $150 billion, and when such cash is excluded, Apple's PE ratio is between 5 and 6. What does that mean? It means that if Apple's earnings expected for this year stay the same for the next 5 to 6 years, in 5 to 6 years, with Apple's existing cash, it would have generated as much as its current market cap.

    Many seem to forget that the reason Apple traded at 12 PE ratio and not 14 PE ratio despite its above average growth was due to the fact that analysts were expecting such growth to slow. In other words, at its previous 12 PE ratio, Apple's price had already taken into consideration the risk of a slow down in net revenue growth...

    The bottom line line is as follows: with interest rates at 0, and even negative, and your money not even safe in a bank as we saw in Cyprus, would you invest it in a company which within 5 to 6 years will have as much cash generation as its Market Cap?

    For me the answer is an absolute YES. As a matter of a fact, I would even do so even if it took as much as 10 years, which would imply 10% return on my capital...

    You are right that theoretically, Apple can go lower. However, such direction would be slow and grinding. At the same time, the stock can also double in a very short time, when investors realize that valuation is indeed extremely attractive....
    Apr 3 07:02 AM | 39 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inevitable Fading Of The Euro [View article]
    Thank you for your comment j1stoner.

    I respect your opinion.

    From a long term perspective, I believe the Euro will fail primarily because the Euro region has shown an inability to make sound policies, even with more than one decade having already gone by since the introduction of the currency. I believe there will be repetitive episodes in the future where unsound policies will be made.

    A country's inability to devalue its currency during times of hardship is a serious handicap. Such handicap will lead to extended economic distress which could easily lead to public unrest and a possible "revolution" of sorts which would call for the desertion of the Euro in favor of a local currency and a default on sovereign loans.

    If history is a lesson, the likelihood of existing economic systems to survive a severe recession and depression is extremely minimal. Just like communism fell apart in the Soviet Union due to extreme economic distress, Euro capitalism is as equally likely to fall during similar hardships. Please do note that I am capitalist to the core, but being a capitalist does not mean that I am not aware of some of the shortcomings and risks of what is currently transpiring in the Euro region. The problem is not capitalism, but the unsound policies that have transpired, and it is such unsound policies that have actually shaken my confidence in the Euro.

    At this stage, it does not matter what they say nor what they do, because they have lost all credibility. Naturally, they would say that Cyprus is a "unique" situation. What would the alternative be, would anyone expect them to say that now "all bank deposits in the Euro region are at risk" ?!

    The Euro's adoption and value has severely surpassed the faith that one can place into a currency backed by countries that lack political union.
    Mar 30 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inevitable Fading Of The Euro [View article]
    It is true Asbytec that most of Europe's problems is related to sovereign debt (and real estate debt...) which indeed is not risk free; actually, it may be risk free if you have the power to print your own money (although you would cause a devaluation of your currency), but the power to print Euros is not in the hands of a single nation such as Cyprus....

    Investors who buy European bonds should evaluate such investment the same way we evaluate Municipal Bonds.
    Mar 26 04:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inevitable Fading Of The Euro [View article]
    You make some good points Captain Sparrow. In addition, the main problem is lack of political union in the Euro, which I do not believe will happen in the near term. The issue is that European member countries first see themselves as citizens of their native country, and second as European. Here is an analogy: suppose a major Vermont bank failed, and Californians refused to let the Federal government take appropriate actions, but insisted that such bank should be bailed out by taxing Vermonters; in such scenario, what would happen to the U.S. Dollar?

    Naturally, such scenario would not happen because Californians see themselves as U.S. citizens first, and there is a political union in the U.S.
    Mar 26 03:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bank Of Amazon: How Long Will Suppliers, Sellers And Customers Keep The Doors Open? [View article]
    Very good points. I actually did a similar analysis several months ago, and I concluded that Amazon sooner or later will indeed have very serious cash issues, as long as its margins remain very minimal.

    On the other hand, if its margins start increasing, such increase will most likely arise from higher product/service pricing, as Amazon is already credited with having maximum efficiency; in such case, Amazon products/services will become less of a value proposition vs. its competitors.

    As per your conclusion, I also concluded that its share price can take a very serious hit; it would not be a very compelling argument for lenders to lend money to a company with very minimal margins, nor will it be compelling for investors to subscribe to an additional share offering given poor margins and lack of profitability.
    Mar 19 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama Win Effect: Cash-Rich Companies Will Lead Economic Boom [View article]
    Thank you for your comment 1234gel. I believe technology offers good value at these levels, especially given the recent sell-off; Apple, Cisco and even Intel for a longer term play. Energy may also be a good long term play, as I have an article coming out soon on such topic.
    Nov 14 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama Win Effect: Cash-Rich Companies Will Lead Economic Boom [View article]
    The waving during the past 4 years was successful in averting a massive financial meltdown, massive bankruptcies, massive run-on-the-banks, massive layoff, and a worst repeat of 1929 depression.

    Why? Because the problems and financial illiquidity was substantially worse than 1929.

    Why would it be different in the next 4 years? Because it is unavoidably a two-stage process; A- you stabilize and avert crisis, B- you reestablish growth.

    I believe during the next 4 years we will witness stage B above.
    Nov 10 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama Win Effect: Cash-Rich Companies Will Lead Economic Boom [View article]
    The Fed is the one with the magic wand... They have started waving it, and they will continue for next few years...
    Nov 9 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    It is true pbanados that unless supply issues are resolved, then excess demand will not result in higher revenues in the short term while such supply constraints persist.

    However, I believe there is less than 5% chance that such constraints will not be resolved in the intermediate and long run. Apple in general executes very well, addresses its problems, and finds solution.

    Given the current massive demand, as well as the new technology associated with the iPhone 5, such temporary challenges are not unusual...
    Nov 9 11:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    mayagordon that can definitely be a possibility but at the end of day, I believe it is a matter of comparing your ultimate expected capital gain opportunity cost in case you get out now and the stock ultimately goes further up, vs. the expected tax liability differential.

    Let's say you have capital gains of 70%, and you would save an additional 20% in taxes, then you would save 14% in additional tax liability by selling now. If due to selling now you miss a further appreciation of say 30%, then when adjusting for tax, if such additional appreciation would have resulted in an incremental aftertax gain of 20%, it would not justify having saved the 14%. Please note I am using these specific numbers for illustration purposes only.

    However, please note I am not a tax consultant, and each individual would need to carefully examine his/her own tax situation with a tax consultant.
    Nov 9 01:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    You make a good point shodamo. However, that is why separates short term traders from long term investors;

    A- From the long term perspective, you can often be permanently on the wrong side of the trade when trading based only on technical indicators and long term fundamentals prove your technical trade permanently wrong

    B-From the short term perspective, you can temporarily be on the wrong side of the trade when trading based only on fundamental indicators and technical indicators prove your fundamental trade temporarily wrong.

    Warren Buffett is a fundamental trader. That is why when examining his record for the past 40 years plus, he has turned out to be as legendary as he is, despite short term disappointments.

    That is also why there is so much heated debate in these comments, as when I read through comments, it is really about the type of trader/investor that you are. Sometimes, both can be right, as it is possible to book short term profits from the short side on a technical short term trade, while it is also possible to book profits from the long side on a long term fundamental trade.
    Nov 9 12:42 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    Good point Misho. At the same time, these two things incentivize Apple, as they have always done...
    Nov 8 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    Thank you for your comment davidovich. Great companies will always be challenged; there is no shame in that. Greatest companies will always overcome such challenges, and Apple has indeed proven it on more than one occasion.
    Nov 8 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    Actually, as of 10/15/12 it was 1.7% short interest, and it has been rising. You can find the short interest rankings at http://bit.ly/Z8q0b6

    Newer rankings and numbers will be provided soon
    Nov 8 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    Apple has always had competition; although it is true that now it has more competition. However, the smartphone market is also still growing substantially, both in Asia, and even in the US.... Finally, Apple is not done innovating...
    Nov 8 04:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
435 Comments
614 Likes