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Bachar Samawi  

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  • Should You Sell 3 Stocks That Spiked, Boosted By Massive Short Interest? [View article]
    tech01x you may wish to ignore the stated risks and remain long TSLA. That is your ultimate decision. Throughout my 26 year trading career I've learned that whenever I have reaped substantial appreciation on a position, while negative risks start accumulating, that it is typically wiser to book profits and either look for a lower entry point, or possibly seek an alternate investment. You are welcome to examine my 90 or so SA articles that I have published during the past 3 years or so, and you will notice that they provide a rather good track record.... TSLA may very well keep appreciating from these levels without providing a further pull back, however, given the stated risks and current gains, I would prefer to book profits and find a better investment opportunity... If you consider this sophomoric, then I am happy to achieve superior returns in a sophomoric manner.... the position has already achieved as much as 47% since its recommendation, depending on investors' exit point, and currently are showing over 19% gain....
    Mar 31, 2014. 05:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Dividend Will Hit $20 Within 5 Years [View article]
    Although I certainly believe that Apple is a good investment proposition, the author's analysis lacks some depth; how about stock and stock option based compensation, has the issuance of such additional shares been taken into consideration in the calculations?
    Mar 29, 2014. 12:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lack Of Profitability Is Structural [View article]
    Paulo lack of profitability is shown to be structural in your model because Amazon has not fully executed its strategy yet. To date, discounting, and selling at a price to undercut others even if it leads to losses has been their model, and yes, in a sense, as such strategy has been maintained, it is structural.

    Amazon investors who support Amazon believe that there will come a point where Amazon will be able to boost its profits simply by raising its prices by a small percentage or decreasing shipping subsidies. That point would come when it had driven most of its competitors out of business. Many believe believe that at such point Amazon would have achieved such scale that it would be difficult for others to compete.

    When such point comes, your model will no longer seem structural, as initially profits will boom. But then the decline in Amazon's stock price will become structural. At such point, their revenues would decelerate substantially, and as competition slowly re-enters, despite the scale barriers that Amazon has built, ultimately profits will be capped and will start declining again...

    As I have said it before, they have a very simple model, full of embellishments and whistles; they are merely undercutting prices and selling below cost when incorporating shipping and other administrative expenses, counting on drowning the competition.

    This is not a viable long term business plan....
    Oct 29, 2013. 04:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With IBM Down, Buy And Sleep Sound Like Buffett [View article]
    Douglas, you state: "if the share price of IBM goes nowhere Buffett's ownership is $120 million more than if the share price was $275."

    If IBM share price goes nowhere, while IBM is repurchasing its own shares, then IBM's total outstanding shares drop and IBM's market capitalization also drops. Hence Buffett's ownership share does not go anywhere; he will have a higher ownership percentage of a lower market capitalization.
    Oct 19, 2013. 09:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Drop After Oct. 22 Event? [View article]
    It is definitely the case that earnings will be in the spot light/ At the same time, investors will be looking at future revenue outlook, which will be affected by the new products, such as those launched at the event...
    Oct 16, 2013. 11:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Much More Profitable Than Perceived And A Foolhardy Short [View article]
    Jake, Paulo makes excellent points. It is not reasonable to discount such costs as you have done.

    In addition, please do note that Amazon is not the only company in the world that is subject to such accounting requirements; all companies are.

    Hence, if you are to make a true comparison to its competitors, WMT or other, you need to compare apples to apples, and you would need to apply the same items you backed out from Amazon to other companies as well....

    I still enjoyed your article, and it is interesting, but it goes overboard in implying that such depreciation is mostly unwarranted... A small percentage of it might be, but most of it is not, and everyone else is subject to GAAP accounting...
    Oct 14, 2013. 02:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple At $800: Flight Delay Or Cancellation? [View article]
    Thank you for your accurate reply strozzi
    Oct 7, 2013. 11:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    Apple has always had competition; although it is true that now it has more competition. However, the smartphone market is also still growing substantially, both in Asia, and even in the US.... Finally, Apple is not done innovating...
    Nov 8, 2012. 04:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Investors Should Be Wary Of The Next Shoe To Drop [View article]
    Your conclusion that the "Apple empire is starting to crumble" is premature based on some executive change, the reason for which seems to be mostly driven by rumors....

    Apple continues to sell out of every new product it launches, and the issues with Maps will ultimately fade as Apple improves it in later versions.
    Oct 31, 2012. 09:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Return To Bretton Woods: Economic and Investment Implications [View article]
    Great article.

    Despite some good analogies, and the fact that sometimes history does tend to repeat itself, there are several nuances that have been set aside, and which may alter the result this time around.

    Most importantly, the current rise in the price of gold has actually not only preceded a rise in inflation, but has even coincided with deflationary pressures, in an environment where real incomes are dropping globally, and unemployment is plaguing most nations in the world.

    Mr. Minerd makes excellent points, but given what I stated in the previous paragraph, it seems his expectations have already played out to a certain degree, and may have gotten ahead of themselves in the short term. As far as the long term, it is hard to argue against the author's point, especially when coupled with an inflationary Fed policy...
    Oct 10, 2012. 04:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These 3 Top Stocks Could Be Poised For A Correction As Oil Continues To Drop [View article]
    Many of the companies you list have substantial downstream operations. A drop in oil prices can also lead to higher margins on refined products. With refinery capacity still somewhat limited, refined products have not dropped in price to the same degree as crude has, hence limiting the drop in the share price of above companies.

    In addition, QE3 is expected to lead to an expansion in P/E multiples. Hence, in case they witness a drop in earnings, and as long as such drop from a percentage basis is less than the percent increase in P/E multiples, then any potential drop in their share price will be somewhat mitigated....
    Oct 8, 2012. 06:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Amazon's Margins [View article]
    There were no false factual assertions. The comment you half-quoted said that margins for Amazon were near 0%, vis-a-vis Apple which is over 40%. Your own table shows Amazon ttm margin of 0.7% . When we compare margins of over 40% to a margin of 0.7%, then I doubt anyone would deny that 0.7% is factually near 0%.

    As for your impulse to "scorn" based on your misrepresentation that there were false assertions, I have no further comments... Intelligent readers can make up their own minds...
    Sep 27, 2012. 10:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Excessive Bullishness? [View article]
    Investor sentiment and optimism vs. pessimism is not necessarily a good market indicator.

    This is a market where investors have to choose and pick carefully. Although past QEs were bullish, there have actually been diminishing returns. An inflationary environment is not necessarily good for all equities. Investors are best served concentrating on shares of companies that have minimum or no debt, as well as solid earnings and cash holdings. Otherwise, if one is substituting cash for a general basket of equities, then disappointment in earnings, coupled with rising inflation can deal a severe blow to companies that are showing earnring shortfalls, hence limiting potential gains in the indices....
    Sep 25, 2012. 07:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Is The Injection Season Already In The Rear View Mirror? [View article]
    jim5309 you are not totally correct. Since the deregulation of the power markets, portfolio optimization and monetization of the fuel switchibility option have caused power producers to change their old habits. If a power plant has the ability to switch between fuels , and if after having secured one type of fuel, prices for the purchased fuel go through the roof, while prices tank for the other fuel, then it is likely that the producer will switch fuels, sell the fuel purchased through long dated contracts at the open market at higher prices, and purchase the other fuel at lower prices...
    Sep 18, 2012. 05:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Passes One Million Members -- 5 Things You Need To Know [View article]
    Congratulations David and to the entire SA team who have worked very hard to achieve this success....
    Mar 26, 2012. 06:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment