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Bachar Samawi

 
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  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    Some good points JUDOKA. It is not easy to stomach a 21% drop, which has increased further today... However, given Apple's cash, and its reasonable P/E ratio, it is easier to stomach such drop than a drop for a stock trading at inflated high P/E ratio, whereby you may not know where the bottom is....
    Nov 8, 2012. 03:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Q3 Results: A Long-Term Look Between The Lines [View article]
    Ashraf, Intel's market cap is about $ 112 billion. Average daily volume is about 42 million shares, at current price worth just under $1 billion per day.

    If intel buys $1 billion worth of shares in 1 quarter (let's say 66 business days), that's an average of about $15.2 million per day.

    I don't believe that will have much of an impact on intel's share price in the short term, given lack of clarity.

    However, I do agree with you in the long term, whereby substantial additional purchases, with a clear indication that Intel is no longer hesitant about itself, will provide a more solid signal to dip in....
    Oct 17, 2012. 04:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Q3 Results: A Long-Term Look Between The Lines [View article]
    Very good article Ashraf.

    At the same time, as your assessment is also dependent on Intel's potential additional share buybacks, and as you state that '"Uncle Intel" will come in and buy back shares when they get cheap' , and as you also state that "there's not a lot of clarity here - even Intel's management was hesitant to give any information on the general trend of PCs on a longer term basis", one cannot conclude that Intel will be aggressive buyer of its own shares here.

    It is only when intel believes (without vague guidance), that it business is still solidly growing, that it would logically conclude that its shares are cheap.

    In the meantime, although I agree with your long term view, investors are better served waiting until it is clear the shares have actually bottomed and/or that Intel has indeed become an aggressibe buyer of its own shares....
    Oct 17, 2012. 04:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There's Less High-Frequency Trading [View article]
    It is not unusual when there is low volatility, for trading volumes to drop for all sorts of trading including high frequency. Given where the VIX has been lately, we are in an extremely low volatility environment.

    One would also wonder whether low high frequency trading is causing low volatility or vice versa....

    I believe it is actually the trading environment. For the past several weeks we have had opposing factors that have basically neutralized each other. On one hand, metircs are very bearish, due to depressed earnings and outlooks. On the other hand, we have an inflationary Fed which is telling everyone they want higher asset prices. Net effect? Stand still. Until when? Probably until eanrings start showing some renewed life, because it does not seem the Fed is going to give up its current stance....
    Oct 15, 2012. 03:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Reasons Apple Shares Will Make New Highs, Again [View article]
    Thank you for your comment Canadian Red Neck. Naturally, Apple products are not as pricey as Rolls Royce etc... However, on a relative basis, when one can spend as little as $30 on a cell phone, but chooses to spend as much as $700 instead, it certainly has to do with the functionality, but it also has to do with status...

    One must remember that status is not reserved to the ultra-wealthy. For example, students who are in middle school and high school also feel they must have the iPhone; it has to do with their "peer status"...
    Oct 8, 2012. 11:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will These 3 Apple Suppliers Soar Again? [View article]
    Skyworks has already started its ascent, rising over 3% in one day..It should have more room to go ATG1977
    Sep 28, 2012. 12:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Yen-Dollar Ugly Contest [View article]
    You make some very good points.

    What many seem to miss is the fact that current controversial inflationary central bank policies, when replicated by nations other than the U.S., may come back to haunt such countries much sooner than the U.S.

    The U.S. status as a superpower, with the U.S. dollar still remaining as the major reserve "supercurrency", afford the Fed to experiment within reason, while possibly being able to maintain its integrity. The Fed is starting to push the enveloppe a little too far through QE3. Unfortunately, this has sent the message to other countries that they can possibly do the same. Many such countries are not superpowers, and as you state, may well have other issues such as demographics. I believe that if such other countries start printing money, their currencies will actually depreciate faster than the U.S. dollar. Such scenario would not bode well at all for Japan....
    Sep 25, 2012. 07:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Covered Calls In An Easy Money Environment [View article]
    The author's suggestion to engage in covered call writing primarily based on yield analysis is not sufficient. It is also important to analyze underlined volatility, and to determine whether the implied volatility for an option you are considering selling is indeed lucrative or not.

    Meanwhile, danstvguy strategy of buying leaps as a directional play, based on his bullish outlook, may be considered as a reasonable strategy whereby he is capping his downside potential, and yet expressing his bullish bias. Still, it is also important to determine whether the implied volatility for such leaps is reasonable or not...
    Sep 18, 2012. 05:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cyclical Battle: Chinese Demand Versus Speculation Junkies [View article]
    The author actually makes some very good points. However, one should not totally ignore the implications of a weak dollar. The US currency has recently depreciated by as much as about 10% against the Euro since August. If the Fed's quantitative easing causes further erosion in the greenback, then an appreciation in the prices of commodities could very well be warranted, despite economic weakness. An old word can come to mind: stagflation....

    In such scenario, the recent rise in commodity prices could be warranted because once the currency effect is filtered out, such appreciation in commodity prices could turn out to be less extreme. In addition, shares of commodity producers who derive a good portion of their revenues from overseas sales could see their dollar denominated revenues show an improvement.

    If on the other hand, despite a dollar depreciation, commodities end up giving back some of their recent price gains, then commodity producers could indeed see their shares start to drop noticeably, as that would imply that economic weakness is substantial, and exceeds any positive effect of dollar depreciation...
    Sep 18, 2012. 05:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why QE3 Can't Work: Understanding The Liquidity Trap [View article]
    Alan the conclusion that corporations can "easily borrow for 10 years below 3%" may not hold for very long... There is a very good chance that the Fed's inflationary QE will lead to higher long term interest rates, as we have already seen start to happen with the 10-year treasury yield rising 10 basis points on Friday... As a matter of a fact, if we examine 7 decades of historical records, we will find that 10-year corporate bond yields under 3% are a very rare phenomenon....
    Sep 16, 2012. 08:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why QE3 Can't Work: Understanding The Liquidity Trap [View article]
    You make some good points, as the author's article is very good and right on the spot. In an article I wrote Friday, The Fed Aux Folles (http://seekingalpha.co...) , I conculded that one has to be extremely careful here, as increased volatility and market drops could ensue, while best strategy is to concentrate on stocks that are actually meeting earning estimates and have little or no debt.
    Sep 16, 2012. 04:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro Vs. Deutsche Mark: Watch What Germans Do, Not What They Say [View article]
    The article makes interesting points.

    Many seem to forget that not too long ago, just a few decades ago, Germany and other European countries would willingly go as far as staging wars on each other in order to secure their economic future.

    With such centuries-old mentality, it is indeed highly unlikely that Germany would risk its economic future for the sake of any other European country.

    The thought that Germany is going to simply give money away to other countries for free is simply naive and foolish. There is no free lunch... When other countries totally give-up on the notion that they may receive a free lunch, because they have moved into a starvation mode, then it will become very clear that the Euro as it stands today will unravel...
    Aug 2, 2012. 07:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Apple Without China? [View article]
    Hopefully stockpicker2010 that is what he is starting to do on this visit....

    As important as China is to Apple, Apple is also very important to China. Hence, there is motivation on both side for a mutually beneficial relationship.
    Mar 27, 2012. 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasoline Price Increases: Prelude To The Next Recession? [View article]
    It is highly unlikely that high gas prices will be maintained. If anything, we may get occasional spikes because of rumors, and temporary uncertainty. However, given recent technological advances in drilling, the US is actually now in much better shape than it used to be. Furthermore, the divergence between natural gas and oil prices is also unlikely to last, and will ultimately add pressure to oil prices.

    The risk in gas prices is to the downside....
    Mar 4, 2012. 05:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Indications Apple Shares Haven't Peaked Yet [View article]
    Well said relayer75. A market wide selling pressure is what could possibly drive Apple lower. At the same time, even when such event happened in the past, in the several following months, Apple still came back even stronger.... With the cash they have at hand, in addition to the quarterly profits being generated, and the global demand for their products, Apple at this time remains in the driving seat....
    Feb 22, 2012. 08:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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