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Bachar Samawi

 
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  • Apple: The Truth Shall Set You Free [View article]
    Bears consider Apple a typical technology stock, despite the evidence proving otherwise. Apple is not a typical technology stock, whereby temporary euphoria is ultimately replaced by outdated technology.

    Apple has been around for over 3 decades so far, and has continuously made other companies' technology outdated. Such evidence should provide Apple a higher price/earning ratio than about 7.5 on a forward basis once you exclude cash and long term investments. If the mentality changes, Apple shares can leap higher strictly from price/earning valuation basis, putting aside potential for higher revenues....
    Oct 9 03:57 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple At $800: Flight Delay Or Cancellation? [View article]
    During the past 30 years, Apple has had the track record of repeatedly introducing captivating products: the Mac, the iPod, the iPhone, the iPad, iTunes, etc...

    As opposed to other technology companies that come and go, Apple has shown staying power. Yet, from a financial ratio perspective it is traded as if it is the new kid around the block that needs to prove himself. At the same time, when in its history it did stumble more than 20 years ago, it resurrected itself and came back even stronger...

    5 years is a long time in technology. Apple has shown that 5 years is a short time for Apple.
    Oct 8 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple At $800: Flight Delay Or Cancellation? [View article]
    Thank you for your accurate reply strozzi
    Oct 7 11:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Could Take Another Beating [View article]
    They typically keep most such cash in short dated securities such as government T-bills and other high rated liquid securities, as well as investments.

    As per last balance sheet, they had $16 bil in cash and cash equivalents, $23.7 bil in short term investments and $97.3 bil in long term investments. Since then, they have accumulated additional profits, hence probably raising each such category higher....
    Apr 4 03:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Could Take Another Beating [View article]
    In the long run, valuations always matter. Furthermore, Apple's cash at this point is probably close to $150 billion, and when such cash is excluded, Apple's PE ratio is between 5 and 6. What does that mean? It means that if Apple's earnings expected for this year stay the same for the next 5 to 6 years, in 5 to 6 years, with Apple's existing cash, it would have generated as much as its current market cap.

    Many seem to forget that the reason Apple traded at 12 PE ratio and not 14 PE ratio despite its above average growth was due to the fact that analysts were expecting such growth to slow. In other words, at its previous 12 PE ratio, Apple's price had already taken into consideration the risk of a slow down in net revenue growth...

    The bottom line line is as follows: with interest rates at 0, and even negative, and your money not even safe in a bank as we saw in Cyprus, would you invest it in a company which within 5 to 6 years will have as much cash generation as its Market Cap?

    For me the answer is an absolute YES. As a matter of a fact, I would even do so even if it took as much as 10 years, which would imply 10% return on my capital...

    You are right that theoretically, Apple can go lower. However, such direction would be slow and grinding. At the same time, the stock can also double in a very short time, when investors realize that valuation is indeed extremely attractive....
    Apr 3 07:02 AM | 39 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    It is true pbanados that unless supply issues are resolved, then excess demand will not result in higher revenues in the short term while such supply constraints persist.

    However, I believe there is less than 5% chance that such constraints will not be resolved in the intermediate and long run. Apple in general executes very well, addresses its problems, and finds solution.

    Given the current massive demand, as well as the new technology associated with the iPhone 5, such temporary challenges are not unusual...
    Nov 9 11:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    mayagordon that can definitely be a possibility but at the end of day, I believe it is a matter of comparing your ultimate expected capital gain opportunity cost in case you get out now and the stock ultimately goes further up, vs. the expected tax liability differential.

    Let's say you have capital gains of 70%, and you would save an additional 20% in taxes, then you would save 14% in additional tax liability by selling now. If due to selling now you miss a further appreciation of say 30%, then when adjusting for tax, if such additional appreciation would have resulted in an incremental aftertax gain of 20%, it would not justify having saved the 14%. Please note I am using these specific numbers for illustration purposes only.

    However, please note I am not a tax consultant, and each individual would need to carefully examine his/her own tax situation with a tax consultant.
    Nov 9 01:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    You make a good point shodamo. However, that is why separates short term traders from long term investors;

    A- From the long term perspective, you can often be permanently on the wrong side of the trade when trading based only on technical indicators and long term fundamentals prove your technical trade permanently wrong

    B-From the short term perspective, you can temporarily be on the wrong side of the trade when trading based only on fundamental indicators and technical indicators prove your fundamental trade temporarily wrong.

    Warren Buffett is a fundamental trader. That is why when examining his record for the past 40 years plus, he has turned out to be as legendary as he is, despite short term disappointments.

    That is also why there is so much heated debate in these comments, as when I read through comments, it is really about the type of trader/investor that you are. Sometimes, both can be right, as it is possible to book short term profits from the short side on a technical short term trade, while it is also possible to book profits from the long side on a long term fundamental trade.
    Nov 9 12:42 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    Good point Misho. At the same time, these two things incentivize Apple, as they have always done...
    Nov 8 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    Thank you for your comment davidovich. Great companies will always be challenged; there is no shame in that. Greatest companies will always overcome such challenges, and Apple has indeed proven it on more than one occasion.
    Nov 8 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    Actually, as of 10/15/12 it was 1.7% short interest, and it has been rising. You can find the short interest rankings at http://bit.ly/Z8q0b6

    Newer rankings and numbers will be provided soon
    Nov 8 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    Apple has always had competition; although it is true that now it has more competition. However, the smartphone market is also still growing substantially, both in Asia, and even in the US.... Finally, Apple is not done innovating...
    Nov 8 04:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    Some good points JUDOKA. It is not easy to stomach a 21% drop, which has increased further today... However, given Apple's cash, and its reasonable P/E ratio, it is easier to stomach such drop than a drop for a stock trading at inflated high P/E ratio, whereby you may not know where the bottom is....
    Nov 8 03:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    Thank you for your comment berylb. I actually think that Google is a different story... It has declining advertising revenues, and a challenge in maintaining such revenue in an environment of declining screen size due to migration from desktop/laptop to mobile....
    Nov 8 03:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    With consumers still lining up to buy Apple products, and demand still outstripping supply, I wouldn't quite say that nothing is going right...
    Nov 8 02:54 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by Bachar Samawi
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