Seeking Alpha

Bachar Samawi

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  • Apple Investors Should Be Wary Of The Next Shoe To Drop [View article]
    Your conclusion that the "Apple empire is starting to crumble" is premature based on some executive change, the reason for which seems to be mostly driven by rumors....

    Apple continues to sell out of every new product it launches, and the issues with Maps will ultimately fade as Apple improves it in later versions.
    Oct 31 09:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Reasons Apple Shares Will Make New Highs, Again [View article]
    Thank you for your comment 1234gel. As per your last paragraph, one cannot help it but be suspicious of the sell-off during the past few days; there has been substantial negative press coverage recently, with some analysis even containing flawed methodology and information, as well as exaggerations.

    In any case, Apple's sales over the next year shall speak for themselves, and given the above factors, I am expecting Apple to do well...
    Oct 10 03:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Reasons Apple Shares Will Make New Highs, Again [View article]
    sept2749 I actually don't like dividends as they are tax inefficient.

    Although Apple has become a massive company, many do not realize that Apple has yet substantial room to grow. It can grow as a content provider, as it can also grow in the applications it is trying to compete with Google such as Maps and Search. Even on the smartphone area, there is still good growth left in the US for additional market penetration, as well as additional growth potential in Asia....
    Oct 9 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Reasons Apple Shares Will Make New Highs, Again [View article]
    p_salerno1 it is true that past events are not necessarily indicative of future events, and you are certainly entitled to your opinion.

    Meanwhile, there are eight other factors listed in the article that bode well for Apple....
    Oct 9 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Reasons Apple Shares Will Make New Highs, Again [View article]
    Koril thank you for your inquiry. Please not that usually I do not provide trading advice to individuals through seeking alpha.

    Having said so, my own personal perspective is that Apple shares are a very good value here from an intermediate and long term perspective. Hence, I would not be surprised to see them make new highs, and possibly even reach for $800/share.

    Whether this would happen by December would also depend on upcoming earnings report and provided outlook. I personally do believe that earnings will beat estimates for the quarter ending in September, as I also believe that outlook will also be good. Combined with expectation for an expansion of PE ratios, I believe Apple shares can quickly trace back their recent losses.

    However, it also important to note that sometimes unexpected events do happen, and hence, investors should always invest according to their own risk/reward profile, knowing very well that nothing is 100% guaranteed...
    Oct 9 09:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Trading At 60-75% Premium To Its Sum Of Parts Valuation [View article]
    Qinept, you are entitled to your opinion. Hence, if you believe Apple stock has peaked, you are entitled to say that your opinion is that Apple shares have peaked.

    However, that is not what you have done. You actually said: "Apple Is Trading At 60-75% Premium To Its Sum Of Parts Valuation "

    You presented as a fact, and then you proceeded to back it with flawed logic and wrong numbers. This is the issue that most people who have commented on this article are trying to bring to your attention, but to no avail.

    Now, as far as Apple's problems, my father had actually taught me at the age of 5, that when I take a photo, to make sure that the light source is behind me. If you conduct a little research, you will find that all cameras will experience problems if you take a photo with the light source facing you head on... Even with some of the most expensive Leica lenses....

    As far as "scratches", who does not know that stainless steel scratches?

    As far as assembly line strikes, it is a short term phenomenon. When a manufacturer has as much as 1 million workers, as I believe Foxconn does, it is statistically impossible not to have some labor issues. However, blowing them out of proportion is what is wrong....

    As for the $30 per share in cash, that was outright wrong....

    In any case, Apple is expected to sell as many as 250 million iPhones over the product cycle of the iPhone 5. Hence, even if there are some glitches in the first 10% of production, which is not unusual, it will most likely fix them as additional production carries on....
    Oct 9 08:42 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Trading At 60-75% Premium To Its Sum Of Parts Valuation [View article]
    Qinept you are making it extremely difficult for the rest of us not to believe that there is some kind of conspiracy against Apple....

    Your profile states you managed a hedge fund of $10 billion. Yet you write an entire article stating that Apple is trading at 65% premium to its value, and yet without even knowing how much cash they have per share? Better yet, actually using a wrong number?

    Foxconn strikes, Scratches, $30 cash per share. Purple Flares. What's next?

    As cash is the most integral part of a valuation of the parts of a company, I suggest to preserve your credibility you may want to consider retrieving the article....

    In any case, this article is an indication that there is desperation there for Apple shares to go lower, so maybe they have actually bottomed....
    Oct 9 07:36 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Trading At 60-75% Premium To Its Sum Of Parts Valuation [View article]
    Huh? Qineqt here is a link: http://tcrn.ch/Pl6gAd

    They have $117 billion in cash. There are 937.41 million outstanding shares (http://yhoo.it/wQuHM7)

    Can you handle the math? 117 billion / 937.41 million = $124.81
    Oct 9 07:09 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Trading At 60-75% Premium To Its Sum Of Parts Valuation [View article]
    I agree. This is incredibly flawed. Consider the following:

    A- You did not even take into consideration the fact that AAPL had $117 billion in cash for the quarter ending in June, and has since generated additional profits and cash

    B- The current forward P/E ratio for Apple is not 15. You do not even provide a source. If you retrieve the average forward P/E multiple for next year from Yahoo Finance, which is $53.37 for the year ending September 2013, and using a closing price of $638.17, you get a forward P/E ratio of 11.96

    C- You compare Apple to the average P/E ratio of companies whom Apple itself has caused them to almost be out of business, and then you claim Apple should trade at comparable ratio... This is most ridiculous! I guess if Apple had taken all business away from them, and caused them to have zero p/e, you would claim Apple should also have a P/E ratio of zero because the competitors average is zero....

    D- There is no point in me going any further....
    Oct 9 06:43 AM | 34 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Reasons Apple Shares Will Make New Highs, Again [View article]
    koril that would depend on the strike,your risk profile and target, as these will affect the risk/reward analysis. It is my perspective that when buying short dated options, one is not necessarily acting as a long term investor. A major factor will be the upcoming earnings release later in October.
    Oct 9 12:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Reasons Apple Shares Will Make New Highs, Again [View article]
    Many people, when quality and great user experience is associated with such brand, they actually do not mind having the Apple logo everywhere; as a matter of a fact, many people seek such objective.

    From a very long term perspective it is true that one has to watch out for "logo fatigue". However, I believe such concept applies more to things such as clothing and accessories, whereby fashion changes quickly and is almost 100% associated with looks. In the case of Apple, certainly looks help, but it is also about integration, features, and user experience....
    Oct 9 12:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Reasons Apple Shares Will Make New Highs, Again [View article]
    Thank you for your comment Donamp...
    Oct 9 12:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Reasons Apple Shares Will Make New Highs, Again [View article]
    Thank you musiccomposer...
    Oct 9 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Reasons Apple Shares Will Make New Highs, Again [View article]
    Johndoe1 it is true that it seems Apple shares typically do not price good news fully in, given its attractive P/E multiple, its massive cash holdings, and the consistent popularity of its products. Yet, exaggerated fears are often taken into account...
    Oct 9 12:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Reasons Apple Shares Will Make New Highs, Again [View article]
    Chuck Rappaport it is a function of probability, risk profile and objective. My own perspective is that current levels are quite attractive, and with my ultimate objective is for Apple shares to reach $800 or beyond, I personally would prefer not to miss a potential of over $163 to the upside for the sake of an additional $33.
    Oct 8 11:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by Bachar Samawi
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