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Bachar Samawi

 
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  • Apple: A Wide Moat [View article]
    Unfortunately, from a cyclical perspective, the wider market is prone to substantial downside risk during the next 12 weeks. Although Apple has done very well so far, and I have often written bullish articles about Apple earlier in the year, Apple has actually substantial downside risk during the next several weeks;

    A- In case of a market wide sell-off, Apple will not be able to escape such sell-off. Currently the market is optimistic about Fed related macro factors. .As soon as Fed euphoria evaporates, cyclically bearish trends could take over again

    B- Revenue growth on the top line has been rather weak for the market as a whole. It is unlikely the market can set aside such indicator, in an environment where costs are no longer showing much improvement, and possibly increasing....

    C- Future earning expectations on the bottom line are being revised lower. Again, it is likely such factor will ultimately come into focus

    D- Europe's problems are on hold, but are likely to come alive again at any moment

    E- In an election year, the Fed is more likely to stand aside in order not to be accused of trying to influence elections through economic stimulus

    F- Although Apple has historically rallied due to Court cases relating to patents, it is unlikely the current patent wars will be in its favor. Qualitative debates and lawsuits about whether or not a "rectangular" shape is patentable is a lost cause. If Apple wins such debate, it will be itself subject to other lawsuits by others who introduced rectangular shapes even before Apple....

    G- Stock split has been anticipated for many quarters so far, and it is fully priced in.

    H- Apple's miss in earnings for the latest quarter could be a function of increased Android/Galaxy competition. Such miss at current price has been fully ignored, and will most likely come back to haunt bulls...

    I- Law of large numbers will work against Apple where the overall market is subject to substantial downside risk

    Once again, although I admire Apple, this is a time to be cautious, as potential downside risk can actually drive it lower to near $450 to $500, primarily due to market driven cyclical factors and macro events...
    Aug 1 04:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Apple Without China? [View article]
    That's true user 399566. This also applies to most other tech companies, as most also manufacture there. On the positive side, maybe such interdependencies also give politicians an incentive to keep cool heads....
    Mar 28 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Apple Without China? [View article]
    KenC please note that the text was updated to reflect the fact that Foxconn is headquartered in Taiwan.
    Mar 28 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Apple Without China? [View article]
    KenC, th chinese market size was as quoted by several sources, including CBC News:

    http://bit.ly/GYk8p5

    Foxconn was listed as Chinese as per Business Insider reported:

    http://bit.ly/HkIHQJ

    Upon further lookup following your comment, Foxconn is headquartered in Taiwan.

    As it was Foxconn that had opened in Brazil, and as in provided reference Foxconn had been identified as Chinese, then that explains the "several years" comment you refer to.

    Thank you for pointing out these nuances.
    Mar 28 12:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Apple Without China? [View article]
    Outsider22, just to stress your point about other cultures infatuations:

    According to the UN, Indians have more cell phones than access to a toilet: see link:
    http://huff.to/GUrFdi

    Following link will show you a Pakistani man with his family, without a car, on a donkey, but with cell phone....
    http://bit.ly/GVdYsZ
    Mar 27 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Apple Without China? [View article]
    You are definitely right Marcellus128 that a company's rise should not be at the expense of employees.

    However, Chinese employees in China are better off today than they were prior to the arrival of Apple and others.... This has led to an increase in China's GDP, in addition to an increase in wages for those working at those factories.

    Although relative to western standards they still have a long way to go, many Chinese line up for hours, sometimes even days, to have a chance to work for Foxconn and Apple...

    This certainly does not relieve Apple from its corporate and humane responsibility of making sure it improves the standard of living of its employees all over the world and improving their working conditions, and set a leading example to others....

    As for the affordability factor, given China's population of over 1 billion, you will be surprised how many actually do want to get apple products, and are willing to save for it. Most importantly, if China continues on its path of annual GDP growth in excess of 5% to 8% annually, in several years the Chinese purchasing power will increase further.

    I am already surprised that there are over 900 Million cell phone subscribers in China....
    Mar 27 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Apple Without China? [View article]
    Very good point Jeff-Canada. Who knows, maybe in a few years Apple iTV may also be big in China....
    Mar 27 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Apple Without China? [View article]
    Hopefully stockpicker2010 that is what he is starting to do on this visit....

    As important as China is to Apple, Apple is also very important to China. Hence, there is motivation on both side for a mutually beneficial relationship.
    Mar 27 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Shares Get A Boost From 'Window Dressing'? [View article]
    It is true relayer75 that many have underestimated Apple... On the positive side, that provided the retail side more time to buy Apple at reasonable prices...
    Mar 27 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Shares Get A Boost From 'Window Dressing'? [View article]
    You make a good point BTNelson33. From a long term perspective, the odds are still in favor of owning Apple. There is always the likelihood of some profit taking after this week, although market timing is a rather tricky business....
    Mar 27 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Apple Cash Will Boost Apple Shares, Markets And Economy [View article]
    That is a good question Longie. I do not know.
    Mar 21 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Apple Cash Will Boost Apple Shares, Markets And Economy [View article]
    Mathematically and economically, consumption is one of the factors that goes into the GDP calculation formula. Hence, whether they buy Apple products or other products, it is an increase in consumption, which increases GDP.

    As for dividend payments, they do not affect current GDP numbers because they are not derived from current production, but past production.
    Mar 21 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Apple Cash Will Boost Apple Shares, Markets And Economy [View article]
    Thanks for the references and update Robert McDonald. In addition to your list of Google uncertainties, you can add Euro exposure and European slowdown risk; although a strong US recovery can potentially make up for that...
    Mar 21 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Apple Cash Will Boost Apple Shares, Markets And Economy [View article]
    Very interesting idea remurraymd, although depending on the price of such first share, and the overall sales figures for Apple, that could be costly... I guess someone at Apple needs to do the cost/benefit analysis.
    Mar 21 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Apple Cash Will Boost Apple Shares, Markets And Economy [View article]
    Nothing is impossible Rich W.
    Mar 21 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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