Tesla: Interpreting The Model S Sales Figures [View article]
I strongly encourage you to read articles before you comment on them. As the title suggests, this article aims to offer an objective interpretation of the Q1 sales figures and clear up some misconceptions that investors have. Nothing more. Judging by the other comments, I have been successful in doing so.
I certainly do not have bitter investor syndrome. In fact, I did mention in the first paragraph that the short sellers were incorrect about the company's valuation as well. Do I tell investors to short the stock, or that the company will be unsuccessful at any point? No. I simply tell them to consider the risks, and not to use misinterpretations to justify a share price driven by a short squeeze.
Tesla: Interpreting The Model S Sales Figures [View article]
Steve, I did indeed pull that comparison from an older article. However, if you read my article, you will see I did so for the purpose of explaining why such comparisons are incorrect.
Tesla: Interpreting The Model S Sales Figures [View article]
Thank you for your comment. The reservations give us a measurement of interest, not necessarily demand. It is easy to put down a deposit if you are interested in the car, but withdraw it if you ultimately decide not to purchase it. What I would like to know is how many of the reservation holders are going through with their purchase, and how that ratio is changing over time.
Again I am in no way saying that demand for Tesla's products will flat line or fall. All I am saying is that investors should be aware of the risks and hurdles the company faces, and should not extrapolate using incorrect interpretations of Q1 sales data.
In my personal opinion, I think the company will do quite well, but the stock price is well beyond its fair valuation right now.
Tesla: Interpreting The Model S Sales Figures [View article]
Actually, Tesla stopped providing reservation data after it weakened in Q1. The reservations/ week would give us a better measurement of interest, not necessarily demand, since the deposit is fully refundable and non binding. Many potential customers are only putting down a reservation to secure their place in case they do decide to buy.
Tesla: Interpreting The Model S Sales Figures [View article]
Oh, let me clarify. We actually did receive a call in March to configure our Model S, but we decided to defer the purchase because my dad had some reservations and wanted to look at the upcoming Audi TDI models.
I mentioned that we made a reservation a year ago, and that our place in line was about 10,400 to highlight the fact that these current sales may not reflect current demand at all.
Tesla: Interpreting The Model S Sales Figures [View article]
My family is actually considering Audi and Mercedes as well. We actually haven't decided yet though, and have already deferred our reservation once. I personally think its a fantastic car, but my dad needs to travel long distances time to time.
Again, I am not saying that Tesla will be unable to appeal to the mainstream consumer. All I'm saying is that there is some measure of uncertainty to be accounted for. The current sales figures should not be used to estimate the Model S's popularity in the mainstream market as so many are doing.
As for Generation III, I wouldn't put too much weight on that. I think it's a bad idea to extrapolate too far into the future with budding industries such as this.
ARM Holdings: The Real Reason That It Ends Badly [View article]
Great article Ashraf. I think that the strength of the post-earnings rally can be largely attributed to a short squeeze. As I recall, the quantity on loan was very large before the earnings release.
The Short Interest In XIV Is Misguided [View article]
I agree. The term structure is most likely to be in backwardation when the VIX is elevated well above its historical mean. At this point, potential losses from mean reversion do become significant.
The Short Interest In XIV Is Misguided [View article]
If you mean buying calls, I would advise against it unless you have reason to believe that we will see a significant surge in volatility. Front and second month contracts are in contango right now, and VXX will decay due to negative roll yield.
If you mean selling calls, I personally find it too risky. It's very difficult to predict spikes in the VIX. If a black swan event occurs in that time frame the calls you sold will be exercised, leaving you with a rather hefty bill.
The Impact Of The VIX Futures Term Structure On VIX ETPs [View article]
Playing backwardation is considerably more difficult than playing contango. Sustained and significant backwardation only seems to occur when the VIX is elevated well above its historical mean. The problem this poses is that losses from mean reversion can easily overpower positive roll yield from backwardation. As such I would strongly discourage going long on VXX, TVIX or something of the sort for the sole reason that the term structure is in backwardation. You must also be confident that the spot VIX will continue to remain elevated for some time.
The Short Interest In XIV Is Misguided [View article]
Yeah. What a lot of people don't seem to realize is that timing a black swan event is tricky, and in the meantime they will be hammered by roll yield from contango. In situations where black swan events seem likely contango tends to be very steep, unless the VIX is already elevated.
Tesla: Interpreting The Model S Sales Figures [View article]
I certainly do not have bitter investor syndrome. In fact, I did mention in the first paragraph that the short sellers were incorrect about the company's valuation as well. Do I tell investors to short the stock, or that the company will be unsuccessful at any point? No. I simply tell them to consider the risks, and not to use misinterpretations to justify a share price driven by a short squeeze.
Tesla: Interpreting The Model S Sales Figures [View article]
Tesla: Interpreting The Model S Sales Figures [View article]
Tesla: Interpreting The Model S Sales Figures [View article]
Again I am in no way saying that demand for Tesla's products will flat line or fall. All I am saying is that investors should be aware of the risks and hurdles the company faces, and should not extrapolate using incorrect interpretations of Q1 sales data.
In my personal opinion, I think the company will do quite well, but the stock price is well beyond its fair valuation right now.
Tesla: Interpreting The Model S Sales Figures [View article]
Tesla: Interpreting The Model S Sales Figures [View article]
I mentioned that we made a reservation a year ago, and that our place in line was about 10,400 to highlight the fact that these current sales may not reflect current demand at all.
Tesla: Interpreting The Model S Sales Figures [View article]
Again, I am not saying that Tesla will be unable to appeal to the mainstream consumer. All I'm saying is that there is some measure of uncertainty to be accounted for. The current sales figures should not be used to estimate the Model S's popularity in the mainstream market as so many are doing.
As for Generation III, I wouldn't put too much weight on that. I think it's a bad idea to extrapolate too far into the future with budding industries such as this.
ARM Holdings: The Real Reason That It Ends Badly [View article]
The Short Interest In XIV Is Misguided [View article]
The Short Interest In XIV Is Misguided [View article]
If you mean selling calls, I personally find it too risky. It's very difficult to predict spikes in the VIX. If a black swan event occurs in that time frame the calls you sold will be exercised, leaving you with a rather hefty bill.
The Short Interest In XIV Is Misguided [View article]
The Impact Of The VIX Futures Term Structure On VIX ETPs [View article]
The Short Interest In XIV Is Misguided [View article]
Is ARM Holdings Fairly Valued? [View article]
Use VQT To Navigate Volatile Markets And The Fiscal Cliff [View article]